美科技股Q4喜忧参半

国际金融报01-29

近年来，美科技公司一直是其大盘的关键增长驱动力。聚焦2025年第四季度，剔除科技板块，标普500指数的盈利增长将从9.2%降至5.5%。投资研究公司扎克斯估算，2026年科技板块将占标普500指数盈利增长的近一半。本周是美科技股的财报周，科技股展示出喜忧参半的局面，投资者依旧重点关注各家公司在AI大额支出和回报方面的表现。1月30日晨间，苹果将公布财报，为此番财报季画上尾声。押注AI业绩喜忧参半1...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129212310a6bbf5d6&s=b><strong>国际金融报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近年来，美科技公司一直是其大盘的关键增长驱动力。聚焦2025年第四季度，剔除科技板块，标普500指数的盈利增长将从9.2%降至5.5%。投资研究公司扎克斯估算，2026年科技板块将占标普500指数盈利增长的近一半。本周是美科技股的财报周，科技股展示出喜忧参半的局面，投资者依旧重点关注各家公司在AI大额支出和回报方面的表现。1月30日晨间，苹果将公布财报，为此番财报季画上尾声。押注AI业绩喜忧参半1...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129212310a6bbf5d6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2756315318.SGD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC 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Q4","themeId":"871331b14753c90a095aa089867aca74","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MACW.SI":0.6,"META":1.86,"MSFT":1.9,"AAPL":1.95},"content_text":"近年来，美科技公司一直是其大盘的关键增长驱动力。聚焦2025年第四季度，剔除科技板块，标普500指数的盈利增长将从9.2%降至5.5%。投资研究公司扎克斯估算，2026年科技板块将占标普500指数盈利增长的近一半。本周是美科技股的财报周，科技股展示出喜忧参半的局面，投资者依旧重点关注各家公司在AI大额支出和回报方面的表现。1月30日晨间，苹果将公布财报，为此番财报季画上尾声。押注AI业绩喜忧参半1月28日盘后，特斯拉公布2025年第四季度及全年财务报告，季度盈利与收入均超出市场预期，但全年营收出现首次同比下降，凸显出其核心汽车业务面临的挑战。具体来看，去年第四季度，特斯拉总收入较去年同期的257亿美元下降约3%；汽车业务收入同比下滑11%，至177亿美元。2025年全年，特斯拉总收入从2024年的977亿美元降至948亿美元，降幅为3%。公司解释称，下降主要源于“车辆交付量减少”及“监管信贷收入下降”。盈利方面，特斯拉第四季度净利润为8.4亿美元，同比暴跌61%。同时运营费用激增39%，公司称部分由人工智能（AI）及其他研发项目推动。同日，科技巨头Meta与微软也都发布了超出预期的营收，但两家公司在资本市场却遭遇了截然不同的反应：微软股价在盘后交易中下跌超过6%，而Meta股价则一度上涨近9%。过去两年，大型科技公司的资本开支大幅攀升，主要驱动力在于建设用于训练和运行大型AI模型的数据中心。尽管这被视为抢占未来技术高地的必要之举，但投资者正开始以更审慎的眼光审视这些投资的效率和盈利前景。财报显示，2025年第四季度，Meta资本支出为221亿美元，全年达到722亿美元，较2024年的392亿美元大幅增长，但其营收达598.9亿美元，全年营收达2001亿美元，均超过市场预期。公司预计2026年资本支出将进一步攀升至1150亿至1350亿美元区间。Meta表示，增长主要源于对加速AI模型开发的“Meta超级智能实验室”的重点投资。与之相对的，微软财报虽显示支出飙升至历史新高，但云销售增长放缓，股价大幅下跌。微软2026年第二季度财报显示，当季资本支出达到375亿美元，同比激增66%；营收为813亿美元，同比增长17%，超出预期。其中，Azure云业务营收增长39%。虽然数据依然亮眼，但部分投资者认为，如此巨额的投入并未带来与之相匹配的增长，AI投资的回报周期或将被大幅拉长。此外，微软对单一客户——OpenAI的深度依赖也加剧了市场忧虑。微软剩余的合同义务中，高达45%来自于OpenAI。杰富瑞分析师布伦特·希尔评论道：“显然大家对（此类业务的）可持续性存有顾虑。”微软目前已向OpenAI投资超过130亿美元，并持有其价值1350亿美元的股份。温和看待苹果北京时间1月30日晨间，苹果将公布财报，为科技股本轮财报季拉上尾声。上一季度，苹果营收达到1025亿美元，同比增长7.9%，较华尔街预期高出0.8%，表现稳健。展望即将公布的财报，分析师预计苹果本季度营收将同比增长约11.1%，至1381亿至1384亿美元；调整后每股收益预计为2.67美元。若实现此增长，将显著高于去年同期4%的增幅。在iPhone 16反响平平后，苹果准备通过iPhone 17回归。研究公司Counterpoint Research预测，苹果将在2025年成为全球最大的智能手机销售商，时隔14年再次超越三星，并将在未来四年保持这一领先优势。IDC预计，得益于iPhone 17的强劲需求，今年iPhone出货量将创纪录。过去30天内，追踪苹果的分析师普遍维持预期，显示市场对公司近期表现持稳定看法。历史数据显示，苹果在过去两年中仅有一次未达到华尔街营收预期，平均超出幅度为1.3%。尽管业绩预期积极，但苹果股价在过去52周仅上涨7.8%，表现落后于同期标普500指数（涨幅16.4%）和科技板块ETF（XLK）（涨幅22.8%）。目前，苹果股票基于预期市盈率的估值约31倍，处于较高水平，意味着市场已计入较多乐观预期，对业绩不及指引或需求疲软的容错空间有限。期权交易者预计苹果将在财报发布前出现大约5%的波动，对于投资者来说，短期风险集中在苹果的AI变现能力上，目前AI竞争非常激烈，但投资者一直对苹果的AI转换能力反映平平。目前华尔街对苹果的共识评级为“适度看涨”或“中度买入”。在40位覆盖该股的分析师中，21位给予“强力买入”，3位建议“中度买入”，14位建议“持有”，另有2位给出卖出评级。平均目标价约在285至291美元之间，较当前股价248.04美元存在约7%至15%的上行空间。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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