特斯拉的2026，一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌

格隆汇01-31

图源 | 图虫引言：一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后，却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前，特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607791720?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/15617-65d6ea30-4a8f-4786-9239-41047c5d6d64.jpg?guru_height=959&guru_width=1280&guru_size=230584","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-31 17:50","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","id":"2607791720","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"特斯拉的2026，一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌","media":"格隆汇","content":"<div>\n<p>图源 | 图虫引言：一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后，却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前，特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3730607\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gelonghui_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉的2026，一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉的2026，一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-31 17:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3730607><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>图源 | 图虫引言：一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后，却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前，特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3730607\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TESL","symbol_name":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3730607","article_id":"2607791720","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://img3.gelonghui.com/15617-65d6ea30-4a8f-4786-9239-41047c5d6d64.jpg?guru_height=959&guru_width=1280&guru_size=230584"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607791720","pubTimestamp":1769853004,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"gelonghui_highlight","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，市场该相信哪一边？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4543":"AI","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"translate_title":"Tesla's 2026, an unprecedented gamble on survival","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSII":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLT":0.6},"content_text":"图源 | 图虫引言：一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后，却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前，特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27亿美元，同比下降3%，净利润同比暴跌46%。两款曾经定义特斯拉高端形象的旗舰车型，将在2026年第二季度末停产，让位给名为Optimus的人形机器人生产线。尽管2025年特斯拉全球交付量163.6万辆，同比下降8.6%，首次被比亚迪的226万辆超越，但市场反应却有些微妙：先是在财报公布后的1月29日大跌3.45%，然后又在科技股集体暴跌的1月30日，却逆势上涨了3.32%。显然，市场对于特斯拉这一场豪赌的态度，似乎也充满了矛盾和分化。一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，市场究竟该相信哪一边？01财报中的“真相”从表面看，特斯拉的2025年成绩单充满危机。汽车业务收入695.26亿美元，同比下降10%；在三大主要市场，特斯拉都面临压力：美国市场销量同比下降超10%，欧洲市场前11个月注册量下降39%，中国市场销量62.6万辆，同比下降4.8%。汽车销售这个市场认知中的“主营业务”，眼下成为拉低公司总营收的主要板块。但冰冷的整体数据背后，好像隐藏着业务结构的质变。2025年第四季度，当汽车业务持续低迷时，特斯拉储能装机量创下历史新高，14.2GWh的部署量同比增长13.6%；能源业务全年营收128亿美元，同比增长26.6%，连续第五季度创纪录。更值得关注的是，FSD（全自动驾驶）订阅业务呈现爆发式增长。2025年末，FSD有效订阅用户达110万，同比增长40%，占累计交付量的约12%；在韩国上线仅一个月，当地用户的智能辅助驾驶行驶里程便突破100万公里。显然，特斯拉正在两条截然不同的轨道上狂奔。一条是竞争对手环伺、日益拥挤的电动车赛道，另一条是刚刚起步的物理AI世界。与此同时，也正是在这份“史上最差”财报的电话会议上，马斯克还宣布了将进行一场规模空前的资本豪赌的消息——2026年资本支出将超过200亿美元。200亿美元，对于谷歌、微软、苹果等巨头来说或许并不算什么，但对于特斯拉来说已是创纪录的水平，相当于特斯拉2025年全年净利润的5倍多。这些资金将集中投向AI芯片、超算集群、机器人生产线和储能设施。或者市场更关注的是，这可能是一个马斯克要在物理AI世界加速狂奔的信号（资本投入向其他科技巨头看齐）。马斯克甚至将公司使命更新为“创造惊人的富足”，并断言道：“我看到了特斯拉成为全球最有价值公司的路径。”02200亿美元资本开支的背后马斯克“空前”的资本开支，决策背后究竟是什么？问题的答案，就隐藏在特斯拉各个业务线的连接处。在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区，特斯拉Robotaxi车队已超过500辆，并在2026年1月于奥斯汀正式开启无安全员的完全无人驾驶试运行。特斯拉自研的AI5与AI6推理芯片已取得进展，计划分别于2027年和2028年投产，其中AI5目标性能较AI4提升约50倍。更值得关注的是，特斯拉正在得克萨斯州超级工厂打造Cortex 2算力集群，2026年上半年，得州超级工厂的本地算力规模将提升超一倍。物理学中，“相变”指物质从一种形态到另一种形态的突变。而特斯拉似乎就正在经历一场商业领域的“相变”。2025年，特斯拉首次明确将自己定位为“物理世界AI公司”。马斯克的愿景是创建一个闭环系统：特斯拉车辆在实际道路行驶中产生海量数据，数据训练AI算法，优化后的算法通过OTA更新推送至车辆，提升自动驾驶能力，进而吸引更多用户使用FSD，产生更多数据。如今，这个商业“相变”的飞轮，正在马斯克的掌舵之下加速旋转。截至2025年底，FSD累计行驶里程已突破70亿英里，仅第四季度就贡献了10亿英里的增量；马斯克曾界定的“完全无人化”门槛约为100亿英里，特斯拉已完成70%的进程。人形机器人Optimus则是这个闭环的延伸。特斯拉计划在2026年年底前启动量产，最终规划年产能为100万台。马斯克甚至宣称，Optimus未来能实现5倍于人类的工作效率，成为“非凡的外科医生”。03悲观派与乐观派的对决特斯拉股价在暴跌后又逆市上涨的背后，实则完美诠释了投资者对公司的分歧。而这种分化背后是两种不同的估值逻辑。传统汽车制造商估值的核心指标是销量、产能利用率和单车利润。按此标准，特斯拉的估值难言合理。2025年，特斯拉市盈率高达418倍，远高于传统车企。但AI乐观主义者认为，特斯拉应被视为一家AI公司，其商业逻辑的核心从“卖车”变成了追求“最低的每英里成本”和极高的“资产利用率”，因此其价值应基于数据优势、算法迭代速度和网络效应。William Blair能源研究团队主管杰德·多西海默估计，自动驾驶技术现在占特斯拉总价值的70%以上。这种分歧也体现在分析师对特斯拉的态度上。近期50位分析师中有30位建议“持有”或“卖出”，显示出专业投资者对特斯拉转型前景的谨慎态度。这种分歧的本源其实并非难以理解：伟大公司往往死于范式转移，而生还者必须主动引领范式转移。传统汽车产业正面临百年未有的变局。2025年，欧洲电动汽车约占所有新车销量的16%，美国电动汽车市场整体放缓。当行业从增量市场进入存量市场，价格战和利润下滑成为必然。马斯克的应对之策是典型的第二曲线战略：在核心业务尚未衰退时，主动培育新兴业务。但特斯拉的不同之处在于，其新旧业务之间存在强大的协同效应。汽车业务为AI发展提供真实道路数据、品牌认知和现金流；储能业务为AI基础设施提供稳定能源支持；AI技术反过来提升汽车产品的竞争力和溢价能力。这种生态化反效应是特斯拉最深的护城河。然而，历史表明，范式转移的成功率极低。比如，柯达发明了数码相机却未能成功转型，诺基亚曾引领智能手机潮流但最终掉队。特斯拉能否打破这一魔咒？关键取决于其AI技术商业化的速度与效率。04结语：投资价值的重新定义特斯拉的2025年，对价值投资者提出了一个深刻问题：什么是真正的“价值”？是当前的盈利能力，还是未来的产业地位？是稳定的现金流，还是颠覆性的增长潜力？传统价值投资强调“安全边际”，即价格与内在价值之间的缓冲空间。但在新兴科技行业，内在价值本身难以量化，安全边际更多体现在技术领先性、生态构建能力和团队执行力上。特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架：基于愿景而非短期业绩，基于生态系统而非单一产品，基于数据资产而非物理资产。这种框架下，特斯拉的业绩下滑不再是致命危机，而是转型阵痛，200亿美元的资本支出也不是盲目冒险，而是战略必需。因为，它主动选择了一条虽然更艰难但前景更广阔的道路。（全文完）","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2607791720","isCrawlerRequest":true}