“大致中性”or“略微偏紧”？花旗解读鲍威尔讲话：降息门槛已经较低，年内有望降息三次

华尔街见闻01-29

鲍威尔在1月的FOMC会议上竭尽全力想要维持一种“不做新指引”的姿态，试图让市场相信美联储目前处于按兵不动的观望模式。然而，对于敏锐的投资者而言，这次会议释放的信号远比表面看起来要鸽派得多。虽然美联储维持利率不变，但鲍威尔承认当前的政策利率处于“略微限制性”区间，且对于劳动力市场所谓的“企稳”迹象持谨慎态度。这实际上暴露了美联储内部对于经济放缓的担忧。据追风交易台，1月28日，花旗银行在最新研报中...

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Citigroup interprets Powell's speech: The threshold for interest rate cuts is already low, and interest rate cuts are expected to be three times this year","themeId":"16eb8d4e2a0228e0e0cb5422b9d671c0","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c53fc3112836205c6ad29596d1f8b6","symbols_score_info":{"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"C":1.64,"UPRO":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6},"content_text":"鲍威尔在1月的FOMC会议上竭尽全力想要维持一种“不做新指引”的姿态，试图让市场相信美联储目前处于按兵不动的观望模式。然而，对于敏锐的投资者而言，这次会议释放的信号远比表面看起来要鸽派得多。虽然美联储维持利率不变，但鲍威尔承认当前的政策利率处于“略微限制性”区间，且对于劳动力市场所谓的“企稳”迹象持谨慎态度。这实际上暴露了美联储内部对于经济放缓的担忧。据追风交易台，1月28日，花旗银行在最新研报中直指核心：尽管美联储眼下按兵不动，但降息的门槛实际上已经很低。无论是失业率的上升还是通胀持续放缓的迹象，都可能迅速触发降息扳机。基于此，花旗维持其激进的预测，认为2026年美联储将累计降息75个基点。对于投资者而言，这意味着流动性拐点并未远去，现在的“暂停”不过是下一轮宽松的前奏。关键的交易时点可能就在3月、7月和9月——这是花旗预判的降息窗口。不要被鲍威尔表面的平静迷惑，真正的博弈在于他对“限制性”利率的定性，这为后续的政策转向预留了充足跑道。模糊的“中性”与明确的“限制性”本次会议最值得玩味的细节在于鲍威尔对当前利率水平的描述。他继续将政策利率描述为处于中性区间的顶部，并表示政策利率“可能是大致中性的，或者略微偏紧一些。”这种语义上的微妙差别至关重要。如果是“宽松的中性”，则意味着美联储可以长期维持现状；但如果是“略微限制性”，则意味着如果通胀继续回落，实际利率将变相上升，从而过度压制经济。鲍威尔重申，大多数官员预计今年会进一步降息，且目前没有任何官员在其基本假设中包含了加息的选项。这一表态实际上封死了加息的风险，确立了利率的单边下行趋势，唯一的悬念仅在于时机。劳动力市场：表面的企稳与底层的疲软美联储在政策声明中对劳动力市场的描述进行了微调，将此前失业率“逐步上升”改为“显示出一些企稳迹象”，并删除了“就业下行风险在近几个月上升”的措辞。从表面看，这似乎是在为鹰派立场背书。然而，花旗指出，投资者绝不能过度解读这一变化。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上明确淡化了声明中的这一改动，警告称他“不会对此做过多解读”。尽管他承认这可能是企稳的早期迹象，但他同时也列举了劳动力市场仍在疲软的证据。他特意引用了世界大型企业联合会的消费者调查数据，指出认为工作“充足”的人数在下降，而认为工作“难找”的人数在上升。这表明，美联储主席本人并不相信劳动力市场已经脱离险境，这种对数据的“挑剔”态度暗示了他寻找降息理由的倾向。通胀路径：关税扰动不改下行趋势关于通胀，鲍威尔维持了建设性的态度，认为通胀将持续回归2%的目标。当前核心通胀之所以略高于目标，主要是受到与关税相关的商品价格上涨的影响。鲍威尔明确表示，这种由关税驱动的商品价格强势预计将在今年年中消退。与此同时，服务业价格正在放缓。这意味着美联储将当前的通胀反弹视为暂时的供给侧冲击，而非需求过热。只要服务业通胀继续下行，美联储就有信心在今年晚些时候实现通胀目标。这种对通胀成因的定性，进一步扫清了降息的障碍。内部显现分歧：沃勒投下反对票本次会议并非铁板一块，投票结果揭示了美联储内部的分歧。虽然大多数人支持维持利率不变，但米兰（Miran）和沃勒（Waller）投了反对票，他们倾向于在本次会议上就降息25个基点。尤其是沃勒的异议，虽然在市场意料之中，但仅仅证实了他已知的鸽派立场。相比之下，古尔斯比（Goolsbee）和施密德（Schmid）则倾向于维持现状。这种内部分歧表明，即便是在按兵不动期间，支持宽松的力量依然强大，且并未被所谓的“经济稳健”数据所完全说服。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2607700219","isCrawlerRequest":true}