微软6250亿美元积压订单引担忧 45%依赖OpenAI兑现

讯石光通讯网01-30 09:51

ICC讯微软和Meta在2025年最后一个季度对计算基础设施的资本支出均大幅跃升。然而，两家公司公布财报后次日的股价走势却背道而驰，这背后存在一个关键原因：投资者对微软开支的可持续性，尤其是在需求可能下滑的情况下，存在疑虑。而微软（及甲骨文）庞大的订单积压，其兑现前景在很大程度上与OpenAI紧密绑定。资本支出竞赛：增长背后的不同逻辑财报数据显示，微软2026财年第二季度（自然年2025年...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260130100712a6bde65f&s=b><strong>讯石光通讯网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ICC讯微软和Meta在2025年最后一个季度对计算基础设施的资本支出均大幅跃升。然而，两家公司公布财报后次日的股价走势却背道而驰，这背后存在一个关键原因：投资者对微软开支的可持续性，尤其是在需求可能下滑的情况下，存在疑虑。而微软（及甲骨文）庞大的订单积压，其兑现前景在很大程度上与OpenAI紧密绑定。  资本支出竞赛：增长背后的不同逻辑  财报数据显示，微软2026财年第二季度（自然年2025年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260130100712a6bde65f&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1988902786.USD","symbol_name":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) 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fulfill","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFX":0.6,"MSFT":1.96,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFO":0.6},"content_text":"ICC讯微软和Meta在2025年最后一个季度对计算基础设施的资本支出均大幅跃升。然而，两家公司公布财报后次日的股价走势却背道而驰，这背后存在一个关键原因：投资者对微软开支的可持续性，尤其是在需求可能下滑的情况下，存在疑虑。而微软（及甲骨文）庞大的订单积压，其兑现前景在很大程度上与OpenAI紧密绑定。  资本支出竞赛：增长背后的不同逻辑  财报数据显示，微软2026财年第二季度（自然年2025年第四季度）收入同比增长17%，达到813亿美元。其资本支出也从226亿美元攀升至375亿美元。首席财务官Amy Hood在财报电话会议上透露，其中三分之二用于GPU和CPU等“短期资产”。  与此同时，Meta收入增长24%，达到599亿美元。其资本支出为221亿美元，主要用于数据中心、服务器和网络基础设施，较2024年第四季度的148亿美元大幅增加。Meta高管在电话会议上表达了信心，认为其业务产生的现金足以覆盖不断上升的成本。  尽管两家公司的支出都在增长，但微软的订单积压问题引起了更大的关注。  创纪录的积压与OpenAI的巨大份额  在2026财年第二季度，微软的订单积压（又称“剩余履约义务”）达到了创纪录的6250亿美元。这一数字较上一季度的3920亿美元和去年同期的2980亿美元均有显著增长。首席财务官Amy Hood在电话会议上表示，其中近一半——45%——可归因于OpenAI。Hood指出，预计微软积压订单中约有25%将在未来12个月内确认为收入。  甲骨文是另一家拥有类似规模积压订单的超大规模云服务商（截至12月为5230亿美元），其积压也主要由一份价值3000亿美元的云合同下的OpenAI需求所驱动。  市场担忧：OpenAI的履约能力与财务健康  IT咨询公司Fusion Collective的首席投资官Blake Crawford向Fierce表示：“这很大程度上寄希望于OpenAI能够成功交付。而要兑现任何潜在收益，都需要巨额资本支出。”他进一步指出：“我愿意为此进行部分定价，但在微软的核心企业业务领域，Anthropic占据更稳固的地位，而其仅占积压订单的约300亿美元。”  当被问及是否对Meta不断增长的支出回报率有类似担忧时，Crawford给出了否定的回答。他表示：“Meta的未来计划并不如此依赖于其他AI参与者。而另一方面，微软有45%的财务未来与OpenAI的承诺捆绑在一起，并且OpenAI是否能够持续支付款项并不显而易见。”  OpenAI的财务前景与市场信心  OpenAI本月早些时候发布的一篇博客文章表示，预计在2026年实现超过200亿美元的年度运行率收入（Annual run rate revenue）。但《华尔街时报》去年底的报道暗示，OpenAI曾在一个季度内亏损120亿美元，并预计其亏损将在2027年增至400亿美元。  Crawford并非唯一对OpenAI需求提出警示的人。Jeffries分析师Brent Thill在微软财报问答环节就这一点向管理层施压，要求他们回应对其积压订单“持久性”以及潜在“风险敞口”的担忧。  Hood对此回应称，其积压订单的55%（即3437亿美元）归因于“广泛的客户群，跨越不同解决方案、Azure服务、行业和地区”，并补充说：“坦率地讲，我认为我们对此有极高的信心。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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