MSCI警告+高盛补刀，印尼股市两日暴跌15%、多次熔断

华尔街见闻01-29

全球指数提供商MSCI对印尼市场透明度发出警告并威胁降级，叠加高盛下调评级，引发印尼股市两日暴跌超15%并多次触发熔断机制，成为该国金融市场面临的最新打击。 29日，雅加达综合指数周四盘中一度暴跌10%，触发30分钟交易暂停。此前一天该指数已下跌超7%并同样触发熔断。自周二MSCI发布警告报告以来，该指数累计跌幅已超15%。 MSCI在报告中指出，印尼证券交易所的公开交易股票数据源存在"根本性可...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764439><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球指数提供商MSCI对印尼市场透明度发出警告并威胁降级，叠加高盛下调评级，引发印尼股市两日暴跌超15%并多次触发熔断机制，成为该国金融市场面临的最新打击。\n29日，雅加达综合指数周四盘中一度暴跌10%，触发30分钟交易暂停。此前一天该指数已下跌超7%并同样触发熔断。自周二MSCI发布警告报告以来，该指数累计跌幅已超15%。\n\nMSCI在报告中指出，印尼证券交易所的公开交易股票数据源存在\"根本性可...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764439\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2210149790.SGD","symbol_name":"Natixis Thematics Subscription Economy R/A 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makes up the knife, Indonesian stock market plummets 15% in two days, multiple circuit breakers","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSCI":1.5},"content_text":"全球指数提供商MSCI对印尼市场透明度发出警告并威胁降级，叠加高盛下调评级，引发印尼股市两日暴跌超15%并多次触发熔断机制，成为该国金融市场面临的最新打击。\n29日，雅加达综合指数周四盘中一度暴跌10%，触发30分钟交易暂停。此前一天该指数已下跌超7%并同样触发熔断。自周二MSCI发布警告报告以来，该指数累计跌幅已超15%。\n\nMSCI在报告中指出，印尼证券交易所的公开交易股票数据源存在\"根本性可投资性问题\"，并表示将停止调整其指数中的印尼证券，包括停止纳入新股票。该机构警告称，如果5月前问题未得到解决，印尼可能被从新兴市场降级为前沿市场。\n高盛周四将印尼股票评级下调至\"低配\"，并警告MSCI的降级威胁\"可能引发大规模抛售\"。高盛在另一份报告中预计，印尼股市可能面临近80亿美元的资金外流，这一风险\"市场尚未充分消化\"。\nMSCI冻结指数调整并警告降级\nMSCI表示，在与监管机构协商解决所谓\"可投资性风险\"期间，将冻结其产品中印尼相关条目的更新。该机构指出，问题集中在股票所有权、交易和价格形成机制的透明度不足。\n这一警告对印尼市场影响重大。MSCI是全球最大的指数提供商之一，数十亿美元的被动投资资金跟踪其指数。降级将迫使追踪型基金抛售印尼股票，而业绩以基准指数为参照的主动型基金经理也可能需要减持。\n如果降级为前沿市场，印尼将与孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡和越南处于同一级别。不过，分析师目前认为这种情况发生的可能性不大。\n高盛预警资金外流规模\n据路透社报道，高盛在下调评级时表示，若MSCI降级，可能导致22亿至78亿美元的资金外流，尽管该行认为降级可能性较低。\n高盛策略师指出：\n\n\"我们预计市场将持续承压，目前不是入场时机。印尼正面临宏观挑战，包括私人消费疲软、信贷增长放缓，以及财政赤字接近法定上限GDP的3%。\"\n\n纽约梅隆银行香港高级策略师Wee Khoon Chong表示，外国投资者一直在抛售印尼股票，股价\"激进\"下跌\"可能增加进一步的投资者外流压力\"。他补充称：\n\n\"时机很不利，因为印尼货币同时面临财政和赤字相关的贬值压力。\"\n\n更广泛的经济和政治担忧\n印尼股市动荡的背景是，在总统Prabowo Subianto领导下，外界对该国经济前景和财政状况的担忧加剧。Prabowo承诺增加社会支出，而政府收入却在下降。\n印尼卢比一直在历史低点附近徘徊，这也受到央行独立性担忧的推动。Prabowo提名其侄子Thomas Djiwandono担任央行副行长，该提名本周获得议会确认。此前，他去年突然解雇了备受尊敬的财政部长Sri Mulyani Indrawati，这些举动削弱了外界对其财政管理的信心。\n据路透社援引LSEG数据，海外投资者2025年已抛售价值13.96万亿印尼卢比（约8.34亿美元）的印尼股票，创下2020年以来最严重的资金外流，1月份抛售仍在继续。\nT. Rowe Price驻新加坡投资组合专家Rahul Ghosh表示：\n\n\"MSCI的警告以及任何未来行动可能对经济产生更广泛的负面影响，如果这使得资本筹集变得更加困难或成本更高，从而增加负反馈循环的风险——因此一些市场参与者可能提前降低风险敞口。\"","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2607577795","isCrawlerRequest":true}