特斯拉25Q4财报点评：业绩符合预期，故事进展顺利

塔子哥的随笔01-29

特斯拉这份财报整体差强人意，远没有市场预期的那样悲观，许多关键的指标都企稳回升，而对于各自新业务的展望也符合或者超出市场的预期。我们对特斯拉依旧乐观。未来的业绩会多点开花，有关AI和机器人的项目会成为新的爆点，其上限应该是目前科技巨头当中最高的。当然目前来看，其主营业务还在转型，需要更多确定性的转折点或者叙事催化，才能够推动股价进一步上涨。【下附详细分析】具体来看，特斯拉2025四季报主要财务数据...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129221645a4652b39&s=b><strong>塔子哥的随笔</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉这份财报整体差强人意，远没有市场预期的那样悲观，许多关键的指标都企稳回升，而对于各自新业务的展望也符合或者超出市场的预期。我们对特斯拉依旧乐观。未来的业绩会多点开花，有关AI和机器人的项目会成为新的爆点，其上限应该是目前科技巨头当中最高的。当然目前来看，其主营业务还在转型，需要更多确定性的转折点或者叙事催化，才能够推动股价进一步上涨。【下附详细分析】具体来看，特斯拉2025四季报主要财务数据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129221645a4652b39&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4511","symbol_name":"特斯拉概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129221645a4652b39&s=b","article_id":"2607334600","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129221645a4652b39&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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story is progressing smoothly","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYY":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLP":0.6},"content_text":"特斯拉这份财报整体差强人意，远没有市场预期的那样悲观，许多关键的指标都企稳回升，而对于各自新业务的展望也符合或者超出市场的预期。我们对特斯拉依旧乐观。未来的业绩会多点开花，有关AI和机器人的项目会成为新的爆点，其上限应该是目前科技巨头当中最高的。当然目前来看，其主营业务还在转型，需要更多确定性的转折点或者叙事催化，才能够推动股价进一步上涨。【下附详细分析】具体来看，特斯拉2025四季报主要财务数据如下：01利润表现营业收入249亿美元，同比跌约3%，符合市场预期的245~255亿美元；净利润8.4亿美元，同比跌63.7%，低于市场预期的14亿美元；不过非Gaap净利润为16.6亿美元，好于预期；稀释后每股收益EPS为0.39美元，同比跌63.6%，非美国会计准则下EPS为0.5美元，同比跌35%；毛利利20.1%，环比上涨超过2pct，同比增3.8pct；净利率下降到3.37%，环比下跌超过160个基点，去年同期为9%；调整后净利率为6.67%，（或1/15），好于去年同期；资本开支23.9亿美元，同比跌14%，低于市场预期的26~28亿美元。02业务关键数据汽车相关业务营收177亿美元，同比跌11%，扣除监管（卖碳）后的毛利率17.9%，环比增250个基点，分析和供应链改善，单车成本下降有关；储能有关业务营收为38.4亿美元，同比增25%，环比增12.5%，毛利率下降到28.7%，预期和单价下跌有关；服务和其他业务营收为33.7亿美元，同比增18.4%，毛利率8.8%，营收和毛利环比都有下降；自由现金流为14.2美元，环比下降明显。03业务指引预期今年停产modelS/X，改成生产机器人，年产量100万台；预期Gen3Q1发布，是首款量产设计的机器人；预期上半年量产CyberCab、Roadster和Semi半挂卡车；预期RoboTaxi投放速度每个月翻倍；预期今年资本开支200亿美元，因扩产建厂需要；预期AI5芯片明年投产，AI6芯片2028投产。总的来看，特斯拉本次财报算是基本符合预期：营收基本符合预期，非Gaap利润超预期，卖车营收超预期且毛利率上升，有关其他未来项目业务进展顺利等，故在公布财报后股价在盘后温和上涨。但由于马斯克说资本开支高达200亿美元引起了一些抛售，股价最终涨幅收窄，市场担忧其负债和融资过高。笔者再拆解一些财报要点如下：Q4汽车单价继续下滑：本季度特斯拉单车售价约为4.1万美元，环比继续小幅下滑，因促销力度增加和减配版model3/Y的推出小幅拖累单价。毛利率改善：本季度特斯拉毛利率上升至20%，主要因为卖车的毛利改善。上一条显示单车售价下降，但由于FSD订阅增加，外加单车可变成本从3.2万美元下行到3万美元，带动整体毛利上行。资本开支即将放量：本季度资本开支继续低于预期，但今年开支指引达到了200亿美元，除了采购英伟达芯片用于补充FSD和AI算力外，还在大量建厂：2026年有 6 座新工厂将投入生产（包括锂精炼厂、LFP工厂、CyberCab、Semi、新 Megafactory、Optimus工厂），相关基建与设备支出巨大。自由现金流继续下降恐需融资：如第三条， 特斯拉资本开支大幅攀升至200亿美元，但当期现金流继续下降，后续可能现金继续紧缺。目前特斯拉账上现金流共441亿美元，大幅增加的资本开支投入对特斯拉2026年的现金流压力仍然较大，尤其是AI业务前期对收入和利润贡献规模仍然较少的情况下，当前业务产生的自由现金流无法覆盖巨额的资本开支投入，总结：本次特斯拉财报整体符合预期，市场继续关注其未来各项业务发展，其毛利率和现金流等问题也同样值得关注。笔者认为特斯拉的业绩整体好于预期，包括但不限于非Gaap利润好于预期，毛利率高于预期等。目前特斯拉估值依旧偏高，市盈率高达300倍。即使考虑非gaap净利润的影响市盈率也超过180倍。不过作为马斯克meme和未来科技ETF，似乎投资者也都习惯性无视了估值。后续特斯拉股价依旧取决于有关未来科技新故事的叙事和进展情况，目前来看还算顺利。我们给予特斯拉三个月目标价为500美元，距离盘前上涨4%后的股价仍有一定涨幅。更多大行解读，其他个股前瞻分析等都已经发在星球内，欢迎扫码进入讨论。（笔者持有特斯拉股份。）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like 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