微软(MSFT.US)FY26Q2电话会：云业务收入首次突破500亿美元 Q3资本支出预计环比下降

智通财经网01-30

智通财经APP获悉，微软(MSFT.US)召开 FY26Q2 财报电话会。公司季度收入达 813 亿美元，同比增长 17%(按固定汇率计算增长 15%)。营业利润同比增长 21%(按固定汇率计算增长 19%)。每股收益为 4.14 美元，经调整后同比增长 24%(按固定汇率计算增长 21%)。微软云业务收入首次突破 500 亿美元，达 515 亿美元，同比增长 26%(按固定汇率计算增长 ...

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亿美元(同比增长 15%-17%)。预计收入成本 266.5 亿至 268.5 亿美元(同比增长  22%)，运营费用出 178 亿至 179 亿美元(同比增长  10%-11%)。资本支出预计环比下降，原因是云基础设施建设的正常波动以及融资租赁交付节奏。预计短寿命资产在 Capex 中占比将与 Q2 类似。公司高层表示，总体战略聚焦技术栈三大层级——云与 Token 工厂、Agent 平台、和优秀的 Agent 体验。AI 普及带来的 GDP 影响和 TAM  增长才刚刚开始。代理(Agent)平台是新一代应用平台，代理是新型应用程序。为了构建、部署与管理  Agent，客户需要模型目录、微调服务、编排工具、上下文工程服务、AI 安全、管理、可观测性与安全防护能力。Q&A 问答Q：关于 CapEx 增长快于预期，而 Azure 增长稍慢于预期，投资者对 ROI 问题比较担忧。请帮助我们理解，算力的扩张如何影响 Azure  增长，以及如何评估这些投资的 ROI?A：对 Azure 的增长指引更应视为分配给 Azure 的产能指南。我们的 CapEx(尤其是 GPU/CPU 等)是基于长期需求决定的。我们需要满足支持 M365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot 等第一方应用销售增长和加速;其次投资于 R&D 和产品创新，分配 GPU  给 AI 人才以推动产品加速;剩余容量才用于满足 Azure 需求。若将新上线 GPU 全部分配给 Azure，其收入增速会超过 40%。最重要的理解是：投入是为了技术栈各层都能让客户受益，它体现在业务各处的收入增长，也体现在我们对人才投入带来的 OpEx 增长。Q：服务器折旧期 6 年，而 RPO 平均期限仅 2.5 年(上季度为 2 年)。投资者如何确信以 AI 为中心的 CapEx 能在硬件 6  年使用期内获得足够收入，以实现稳健的收入和毛利增长?A：平均期限是各类合同组合的结果。例如 M365 等业务合同期限较短(如 3 年)，拉低了整体平均值。剩余大部分是期限更长的 Azure  合同，本季度其期限从约 2 年延长至 2.5 年。当前支出的大部分资本及购买的 GPU，其大部分使用期已通过合同锁定。因此，所指的风险并不存在。若仅看 Azure，其 RPO 期限更长。我们谈及的 GPU  合同(包括一些最大客户)已覆盖 GPU 的整个使用期，故无此风险。此外，我们通过软件持续优化整个硬件机队，包括老旧型号，并利用摩尔定律每年更新设备、通过软件进行全局优化。另外，在硬件使用期内，我们的交付效率会越来越高，利润率实际上会随时间改善。这在  CPU 机队中一直可见。Q：关于未完成订单(RPO)中 45% 与 OpenAI 相关，能否评论其持续性?外界担忧相关风险，您有何看法?A：我们提到这个数字，恰恰因为其余 55%(约 3500  亿美元)与我们广泛的业务组合相关，涵盖了多种解决方案、Azure、行业和地域的广阔客户群。这是一个巨大的 RPO  余额，比大多数同行都大，且更多样化。我们对此有极高的信心。这部分单独看也增长了  28%，体现了我们业务的广泛性和所见的采用曲线在各个客户细分、行业和地域都持续增长。至于 OpenAI  合作，这是一个伟大的伙伴关系。我们继续作为他们的规模提供商，对此感到兴奋。我们支撑着最成功的业务之一，并持续看好。这让我们在构建技术和应用创新前沿保持领先地位。Q：能否定性评论产能增加的规模?上季度增加 1 吉瓦非常可观，且产能增加在加速。投资者特别关注亚特兰大和威斯康星的 Fairwater  项目，希望了解未来几个季度产能增加的幅度(无论分配方式)。A：我们正尽全力尽快增加产能。您提到的特定地点(如亚特兰大或威斯康星)是多年度交付项目，因此不必只聚焦于具体地点。我们的核心工作是全球范围内增加产能，其中大部分将在美国(包括您提到的两个地点)以及全球其他地区，以满足客户需求和增长的使用量。我们将持续增加长效基础设施的建设，确保获得电力、土地和设施，一旦完成后就会尽快部署 GPU 和  CPU。同时，我们会尽力提升建设和运营效率，以实现尽可能高的利用率。这不仅仅是两个地点的问题，它们是多年度交付时间线。关键在于我们要在所有当前正在建设或即将开工的地点尽快完成这项工作。Q：Maia 200 加速器在推理方面的性能成就看起来非常显著，尤其是相比现有的 TPU、Trainium 和  Blackwell。您如何看待这一成就，以及芯片在多大程度上正成为微软的核心竞争力?另外，这对未来推理成本的毛利率前景有何影响?A：我们在自研芯片方面已有长期积累，特别是在运行 GPT-5.2  时获得的性能表现。这证明当出现新工作负载时，你可以在模型、芯片及整个系统之间进行端到端创新——这不只是硅芯片本身，还包括为特定工作负载优化的机架级网络和内存协作。我们与自身的超级智能团队紧密合作，我们构建的所有模型都将为  Maia 优化。总体来看，这仍处于非常早期的阶段，创新不断涌现。现在大家都在谈论低延迟推理。我们确保自己不锁定于任何单一技术，我们与 NVIDIA、AMD  有良好的合作伙伴关系，他们和我们都在创新。我们希望在任何时间点，我们的机队都能获得最佳总拥有成本。这不是一代产品的游戏，你需要持续领先。这意味着你需要将大量的外部创新融入机队，使其在总拥有成本层面具备根本优势。因此，我们对 Maia、Cobalt、我们的 DPU  和网卡都感到兴奋，我们拥有强大的系统能力，可以进行垂直整合。但能够垂直整合并不意味着我们只进行垂直整合，我们希望保持灵活性，这正是你们所看到的。Q：能否阐述企业开启前沿转型(Frontier)的势头?也看到客户在采用微软 AI 技术栈后实现突破性收益。他们在成为 “frontier firms”  的过程中，与微软的支出可能扩大到什么程度?A：我们看到客户对我们三大套件(M365、安全、GitHub)的采用。它们产生了复合效应。例如，Work IQ  至关重要，因为对任何使用微软服务公司，最关键数据库就是 Microsoft 365  底层的数据，它包含所有隐性信息(人员、关系、项目、成果、沟通)。这是任何业务流程和工作流的超级重要资产。现在，代理平台正在真正改变公司。部署这些代理能帮助企业协调工作，带来更大影响力。此外，企业还在利用 Fabric、Foundry 中的服务以及  GitHub 工具或低代码工具进行自身转型(如客户服务、营销、财务等领域)，构建自己的代理。最令人兴奋的是 M365 Copilot、GitHub Copilot、安全 Copilot  这些新的代理系统正在汇聚，将所有数据和部署的益处复合起来，这可能是目前最具变革性的影响。Q：关于 Azure 的 CPU 方面有何表现(考虑到运营变化)?从更宏观角度看，客户是否意识到要进行恰当的 AI  就必须上云，这如何推动云迁移势头?A：首先，AI 工作负载不应仅视为使用 AI  芯片的负债。因为，任何代理会通过工具调用其他容器(container，可以理解为基于物理设备的一个个不同的虚拟系统)，而容器也需要用到通用计算资源。我们在规划机队时也会考虑 AI  算力和通用算力的配比，即使是训练任务也需要大量通用计算算力和紧邻的存储。推理也是如此，代理模式的推理本质上需要为代理配置通用计算资源——它们不一定需要  GPU，但需要计算和存储资源。这就是新世界正在发生的情况。另外，云迁移仍在持续。例如，最新的 SQL Server 作为 IaaS 服务在 Azure 上持续增长。这正是为什么我们必须考虑我们的商业云并使其与  AI 云保持平衡的原因，因为当客户迁移工作负载或构建新工作负载时，他们需要在部署的区域获得所有这些基础设施元素。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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