有色金属行业：波动不改上行趋势

国泰海通证券股...01-29

本报告导读：在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。投资要点：贵金属：贵金属价格震荡走高，波动加大。美国就业数据偏暖，贵金属价格小幅走高。展望2026 年，我们认为央行购金和黄金ETF 持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄金价格的重要因素。白银来看，伦敦白银租赁利率有所下降，但美国白银库存下降速度较快。相关标的...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607200477?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-29 09:35","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2607200477","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"有色金属行业：波动不改上行趋势","media":"国泰海通证券股...","content":"<div>\n<p>本报告导读：在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。投资要点：贵金属：贵金属价格震荡走高，波动加大。美国就业数据偏暖，贵金属价格小幅走高。展望2026 年，我们认为央行购金和黄金ETF 持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄金价格的重要因素。白银来看，伦敦白银租赁利率有所下降，但美国白银库存下降速度较快。相关标的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129093847a6b955a8&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>有色金属行业：波动不改上行趋势</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n有色金属行业：波动不改上行趋势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-29 09:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129093847a6b955a8&s=b><strong>国泰海通证券股...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本报告导读：在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。投资要点：贵金属：贵金属价格震荡走高，波动加大。美国就业数据偏暖，贵金属价格小幅走高。展望2026 年，我们认为央行购金和黄金ETF 持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄金价格的重要因素。白银来看，伦敦白银租赁利率有所下降，但美国白银库存下降速度较快。相关标的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129093847a6b955a8&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1129","symbol_name":"特种化学制品","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129093847a6b955a8&s=b","article_id":"2607200477","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129093847a6b955a8&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607200477","pubTimestamp":1769650513,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美国就业数据偏暖，贵金属价格小幅走高。同时海内外流动性宽松的趋势未变，为铜价提供有力支撑。整体来看，预计短期内铝价仍将维持高位震荡。周内锡价大幅波动，后半周随着交易所调锡交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅度及限额，市场情绪降温，价格调整。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"300748":"金力永磁","600111":"北方稀土","600259":"中稀有色","600301":"华锡有色","600489":"中金黄金","600499":"科达制造","600547":"山东黄金","600988":"赤峰黄金","601600":"中国铝业","603799":"华友钴业","BK1129":"特种化学制品","000960":"锡业股份","002240":"盛新锂能","09696":"天齐锂业","000426":"兴业银锡","01787":"山东黄金","002532":"天山铝业","000807":"云铝股份","02600":"中国铝业","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","002460":"赣锋锂业","000762":"西藏矿业","002340":"格林美","06693":"赤峰黄金","01772":"赣锋锂业","BK1190":"多种金属与采矿","06680":"金力永磁","ALMMF":"Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd.","000933":"神火股份","01818":"招金矿业","01378":"中国宏桥","BK1592":"有色金属","002497":"雅化集团","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","000408":"藏格矿业","002466":"天齐锂业","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD"},"translate_title":"Non-ferrous metal industry: fluctuations do not change the upward trend","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300748":1.61,"600111":1.61,"600259":1.61,"600301":1.61,"600489":1.61,"600499":1.61,"600547":1.61,"600988":1.61,"601600":1.61,"603799":1.61,"002460":1.61,"01378":1.61,"ALMMF":0.9,"002532":1.61,"000426":1.61,"01818":1.61,"002340":1.61,"000807":1.61,"01787":1.61,"000762":1.61,"01772":0.9,"002240":1.61,"002497":1.61,"000408":1.61,"000933":1.61,"002466":1.61,"09696":1.61,"000960":1.61,"02600":1.61,"06693":0.9,"06680":1.61},"content_text":"本报告导读：在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观对金属价格走势的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。投资要点：贵金属：贵金属价格震荡走高，波动加大。美国就业数据偏暖，贵金属价格小幅走高。展望2026 年，我们认为央行购金和黄金ETF 持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄金价格的重要因素。白银来看，伦敦白银租赁利率有所下降，但美国白银库存下降速度较快。相关标的：中金黄金、赤峰黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、山金国际。铜：短期情绪波动，不改长期逻辑。宏观情绪调整叠加英伟达修正数据中心铜需求量，短期铜价震荡承压。然铜矿供给仍旧紧张，现货铜精矿加工费持续下跌，AI 和电网建设带来的需求逻辑仍在，近期国家电网表示十五五期间固定资产投资预计为4 万亿，较十四五增长40%。同时海内外流动性宽松的趋势未变，为铜价提供有力支撑。铝：宏观多空交织，铝价维持高位震荡。近期宏观消息多空博弈，市场看涨情绪较周初有所降温；基本面来看，供应端国内新投电解铝项目持续爬产，铝土矿价格跌势延续、氧化铝持续累库承压；需求端受春节假期临近影响走弱，铝锭持续累库，铝棒库存单周激增超 20%，受春节临近成品备库需求，铝加工行业开工率环比微升0.2 个百分点至60.2%，高位铝价成为抑制下游消费与行业开工回升的核心因素。整体来看，预计短期内铝价仍将维持高位震荡。推荐：云铝股份、天山铝业、中国铝业；相关标的：中国宏桥、神火股份。锡：关注供需边际变化，价格或震荡为主。周内锡价大幅波动，后半周随着交易所调锡交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅度及限额，市场情绪降温，价格调整。据SMM，近期高价刺激下，缅甸复产节奏有所加快，同时印尼提高2026 年生产配额，需求受高价有所抑制，价格或以震荡为主。推荐标的：锡业股份，相关标的：兴业银锡，华锡有色。能源金属：库存下降，出口退税政策或带来需求前置。碳酸锂：上周（1月16 日）碳酸锂库存重新开始去库，在产量上升的背景下，需求边际走强，需求保持在较好水平。由于电池产品的出口退税额将下调，预期电池需求或将前置，淡季需求或表现得更为强势。由于江西重要矿山的复产存在扰动，市场对其能否如期释放产量产生较大分歧。推荐标的：雅化集团、藏格矿业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盛新锂能。相关标的：科达制造、西藏矿业。钴板块：上游仍受原料偏紧影响报价偏高，下游需求侧采买谨慎。钴业公司多向电新下游延伸，构成钴-镍-前驱体-三元的一体化成本优势，增强竞争壁垒。推荐华友钴业。相关标的：格林美。稀土：稀土价格回升。在政策和春节前备库需求回暖的双重影响下，稀土价格回升。我们持续看好稀土作为关键战略资源的投资价值。相关标的：北方稀土、广晟有色、金力永磁。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2607200477","isCrawlerRequest":true}