中信证券：房地产行业有望迎来“风雨之后见彩虹”的复苏新阶段

证券日报01-31

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　本报记者田鹏　　1月31日，中信证券发布房地产行业2025年业绩预告点评报告，明确维持行业“强于大市”评级。报告指出，尽管行业短期业绩仍受历史调整影响，但经营性资产复苏态势显著，政策支持、REITs市场扩容等多重积极信号密集释放，房地产行业已具备止跌回稳基础，核心资产价值有望迎来重估。　　报告显示，A股地产板块78...

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田鹏\n　　1月31日，中信证券发布房地产行业2025年业绩预告点评报告，明确维持行业“强于大市”评级。报告指出，尽管行业短期业绩仍受历史调整影响，但经营性资产复苏态势显著，政策支持、REITs市场扩容等多重积极信号密集释放，房地产行业已具备止跌回稳基础，核心资产价值有望迎来重估。\n　　报告显示，A股地产板块78...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-01-31/doc-inhkfeac2570771.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2289578879.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ CHINA A OPPORTUNITIES \"AT\" (USD) 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田鹏\n　　1月31日，中信证券发布房地产行业2025年业绩预告点评报告，明确维持行业“强于大市”评级。报告指出，尽管行业短期业绩仍受历史调整影响，但经营性资产复苏态势显著，政策支持、REITs市场扩容等多重积极信号密集释放，房地产行业已具备止跌回稳基础，核心资产价值有望迎来重估。\n　　报告显示，A股地产板块78家发布业绩预告或快报的企业中，虽有58家公告预亏，但这一结果是过去几年市场调整的客观呈现。当前行业积极信号持续涌现：国家统计局数据印证市场调整已进入深水区，截至2025年12月份，70个大中城市新房和二手房价格指数较最高点的调整幅度已分别达到12.6%和21.3%，市场出清进程加快；主要城市二手房挂牌量出现下行趋势，供需关系正在逐步改善。更关键的是，《求是》杂志发表重磅文章，强调房地产政策应一次性给足，这一表态有效提振了购房人信心，为缩短市场调整时间、推动行业尽快企稳奠定了坚实基础。\n　　报告称，“总体来看，2026年房地产市场具备止跌回稳的基础，房价止跌回稳也是房企资产负债表修复的关键。”\n　　报告认为，优质资产价值增厚与REITs市场的快速发展成为行业修复的重要引擎。2026年1月29日-30日，8单总计估值321亿元的商业不动产REITs集中发行挂网，预计募集规模达315亿元，涉及CapRate在4.3%-7.2%区间，2025年合计运营净收益（NOI）达16.5亿元。\n　　中信证券指出，REITs市场发行审批效率的显著提升，加速了优质资产证券化进程，不仅有效夯实了房地产企业资产负债表、减轻了债务负担，更让广大投资者得以配置优质低波权益资产，共享中国经济增长红利。\n　　报告进一步分析，我国居民部门现金流量表保持良好，宏观经济健康向上，为企业经营性现金流持续修复提供了坚实支撑。随着政策力推住宅价格止跌，叠加商业地产资产增值，房地产板块主体信用风险已开始退潮。尤为重要的是，行业融资结构正发生根本性转变，融资性现金流入从以主体信用债为主转向项目融资（REITs和物业经营贷等）为主，企业资产和负债错配的核心矛盾得到有效缓解。\n　　基于上述判断，中信证券提出围绕经营性资产主线、重估中国核心资产价值的投资策略。具备核心资源和运营能力的开发企业将显著占据优势，报告重点推荐华润置地、招商蛇口、华润万象生活、大悦城、新城控股、太古地产、恒隆地产、龙湖集团等企业。在居民和企业资产负债表良性共振的预期下，房地产行业有望告别调整期，迎来“风雨之后见彩虹”的复苏新阶段。\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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