传媒互联网行业周报：阿里千问做出重大更新泡泡玛特持续回购

招商证券股份有...01-29

近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等去的一周，传媒行业上涨了0.96%，在所有行业中排名第22 位，传媒板块年初到现在上涨了16.19%，排名所有板块第2 名。近期传媒在AI 应用的带动下，有所反弹，我们近期也在持续的在AI 应用...

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超级入口之争正式打响，在评测千问以及大模型产业链交流的过程中，我们发现，AI 超级入口之争，除了比拼生态圈外（比如阿里有高德地图，飞猪，淘宝，支付宝等），还有一个更为重要的PK 点，就是谁的专业数据更多，比如电商，医疗，教育，金融，法律，旅游甚至电影电视剧游戏等专业数据和点评，都有望成为AI 超级入口争夺的关键点；其次，从具体应用场景看，专业数据对大模型价值提升的作用具备显著的付费转化潜力。例如，在高考志愿填报场景中，若模型能够基于过去多年各高校在不同省份、不同专业的录取分数线，结合跨省热度变化及就业表现进行系统分析，其决策辅助价值将显著高于基于公开数据的通用回答，具备较强的用户付费意愿。同样，在消费决策场景中，若电商平台能够向模型提供基于专业测评与性价比筛选的商品数据，并叠加使用场景下的安全提示与配套装备建议，将明显提升用户决策效率与转化率。在医疗、旅游、法律等领域亦是如此，仅依赖公开信息抓取的模型可替代性较强，而真实病历与医患反馈、海量用户真实旅游评价、法院裁判文书与案例结构化数据，能够显著提升模型回答的专业性与针对性。随着真实、客观、可验证的专业数据持续积累，模型在用户端将逐步形成正向口碑效应，行业竞争格局有望呈现“强者恒强”的特征。另外，近期泡泡玛特持续回购，公司迎来拐点，我们的推荐逻辑如下： 1、1月19 日单日回购股数力度为上市以来第7 大，前6 次分别在2022/7/18，2022/7/19，2022/7/20，2022/7/22，2022/10/22，2024/1/22 回购数量为868.0/315.4/200.9/176.7/155.4/150 万股。公司历史共回购127 次，历史回购呈周期内多次特点，并叠加现金分红。其中，自2024 年1 月回购以来，公司2024 年累计涨幅为382.7%，2024 年1 月19 日每股回购价格区间为159.6-162.7 港元。2、市场前期主要交易的高频数据包括千岛二手价格、app下载量及搜索指数、线上交易额估计等存在样本选取和解读的问题。1）app下载量及搜索指数更适用于反映IP 或品牌从“0 到1”的出圈过程，在品牌声量已形成后，用户主动搜索与下载需求阶段性回落属于正常现象。2）用户数据方面，受Sensortower 数据抓取及各地区售卖规则影响，美国日活用户最多、中国其次，之后是日本、澳大利亚、泰国，与公司中报披露口径有明显差异。3）此外，即使是同口径下也存在和线上交易额同样的问题即渠道变化导致数据可参考性有限。在搪胶毛绒品类爆发初期，由于供给不足，为防止线下门店排队体验感差及黄牛堵门等问题，热款的发售及补货均以线上为主。公司注重线下门店的体验感，CEO 王宁在《因为独特》中提到：“线下是更有包裹感的品牌文化的传递方式，开店非常重要，进到泡泡玛特的门店的体验是独特的。”我们认为在解决产能问题后，热款会逐步回到线下门店销售。由于渠道的变化或导致单一渠道的月度数据对实际供需情况反映能力有限。4）二手价格及交易量方面，千岛于9 月29 日调整盲盒类寄售标准，旧标准下对原包装盒及内袋无要求；而新标准下需要有原盒且内袋需为未拆封状况。该标准调整对二手交易量有不利影响。此外，历史跟踪来看，公司业绩与二手价格拟合程度有限。3、后续建议关注1) 北美开店进展，包括加拿大、沙特阿拉伯在内的新地区拓展，2) 日本地区爆发对品牌效应的促进，3)马年新春套系及星星人毛绒新品。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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传媒互联网行业周报：阿里千问做出重大更新 泡泡玛特持续回购

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传媒互联网行业周报：阿里千问做出重大更新泡泡玛特持续回购