从元宇宙、微软与特斯拉的财报中，我们看到了什么

环球市场播报01-29

专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报萨提亚・纳德拉与马克・扎克伯格　　作者：马丁・皮尔斯　　若将季度财报发布比作一场竞赛，马克・扎克伯格无疑是周三的赢家。甚至可以说，投资者已开始接受元宇宙平台公司为人工智能豪掷千金的 “孤注一掷” 式投入策略。这家旗下拥有脸书和照片墙的企业公布，四季度营收同比增长 24%，超出市场预期，同时预计一季度营收增速将进一步攀升至 30%—— 这是元宇宙自 2021...

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6%。过去一年的大部分时间里，微软股价表现均算不上亮眼，此次的抛售潮更显得尤为突出。在财报电话会议上，分析师明确指出，投资者正担忧两大问题：微软在人工智能领域的投入能否获得回报，以及其云业务对客户开放人工智能的过度依赖。但投资者不妨看得更全面些：微软软件业务的利润率，本就高于蔚蓝云的服务器租赁业务。公司当下的核心任务，是说服软件客户购买其人工智能赋能的功能模块，而这一工作已初见成效。微软披露，其办公 365 智能助手的付费订阅用户已达 1500 万 —— 从整体规模来看这一数字并不算高（2024 年，微软曾公布办公 365 的付费订阅用户为 4 亿），但这无疑是一个良好的开端。（正如今日亚伦的报道所提及，首席执行官萨提亚・纳德拉及其团队正携手深度求索，借助其前沿技术加速优化智能助手相关产品。）\n　　市场的另一重担忧，是微软的利润率正面临承压。公司最新季度的整体毛利率出现微幅下滑，这一状况的症结正是其云业务。微软披露，受人工智能基础设施成本攀升影响，包含蔚蓝云在内的 “智能云业务部门” 毛利率跌幅超 4 个百分点。微软在一份证券申报文件中坦言，尽管蔚蓝云的增速高于智能云业务部门的其他板块，但这一表现实则拉低了整个部门的利润率。而财报电话会议中的表述也显示，今年 3 月季度，微软的利润率将面临更大的压力。\n　　尽管如此，若论利润率的承压程度，元宇宙的处境则更为糟糕。四季度，公司营业支出同比激增 40%（主要源于人力成本上涨和人工智能服务器投入增加），营业利润率因此下滑 7 个百分点。此外，正如元宇宙三个月前发出的预警，公司今年的支出规模还将大幅扩张：预计 2026 年资本支出将从 2025 年的 720 亿美元飙升至 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元，营业支出也将同比增长 40%。这意味着，即便假设公司业务在全年保持向好态势，到今年年末，其现金流也可能会出现明显缩水。\n　　诚然，元宇宙高管预计，尽管营业支出大幅增加，2026 年的营业利润仍将高于 2025 年。但不得不说，结合会计准则的计算要求来看，营业利润这一指标在一定程度上只是会计层面的账面数字，自由现金流才是更具实际意义的衡量标准。从这一指标来看，元宇宙 2025 年的自由现金流同比下降 16%，至 436 亿美元。考虑到今年资本支出的大幅增加，其自由现金流大概率会进一步萎缩。而公司四季度的债务规模翻倍，显然也并非巧合。\n　　归根结底，对这两家企业而言，增长固然重要，但支撑增长的成本，才是更关键的核心问题。\n　　特斯拉的战略转型\n　　十年后，特斯拉还会卖车吗？以当前的发展态势来看，答案并非板上钉钉。\n　　埃隆・马斯克在周三的特斯拉分析师电话会议上宣布，公司将停止生产 Model S 和 Model X 两款豪华车型，这两款车型的市场销量始终表现不佳。目前，特斯拉的主力在售车型为 Model 3 和 Model Y。马斯克表示，公司将把加州原本用于生产 Model S 和 Model X 的生产线，改造为擎天柱机器人的生产基地，最终实现每年 100 万台机器人的产能。（本文文末附财报详细解读，简而言之，如市场此前根据销量下滑所预期的那样，特斯拉营收出现了下降。）\n　　与此同时，马斯克及公司其他高管在会议中反复强调特斯拉的自动驾驶软件，以及尚处起步阶段的机器人出租车服务。会议中多个环节的表述，都让特斯拉听起来更像是一家订阅制软件企业，而非汽车制造商。特斯拉车辆工程副总裁拉尔斯・莫拉维称，公司正转型为 “交通服务提供商”；而首席财务官维巴夫・塔内贾则表示，未来推动公司增长的核心引擎将是 “自动驾驶软件”，而非汽车销售。\n　　此外，特斯拉即将取消自动驾驶辅助软件的终身购买服务。自 2 月 14 日起，车主将仅能通过按月付费的方式，订阅该自动驾驶软件。既然如此，特斯拉为何不彻底转型为汽车服务订阅企业？倘若未来消费者只能通过呼叫机器人出租车，或租赁包含自动驾驶订阅服务的车辆来使用特斯拉产品，这一结果其实也并不令人意外。\n　　会议中还有一个细节：马斯克被问及为何特斯拉要向其旗下的人工智能公司 xAI 投资 20 亿美元，他给出了极具马斯克风格的答案：xAI 旗下的格罗克模型，将成为管理未来擎天柱机器人作业团队的 “指挥中枢”。显然，这一布局的核心，早已不再是汽车销售。—— 西奥・韦特\n　　其他财经要闻\n\n亚马逊周三宣布，将裁员 1.6 万人。此次裁员是继去年 10 月之后的又一轮大规模裁员，彼时亚马逊曾宣布裁减约 1.4 万名企业员工。\n路透社消息，中国已批准首批英伟达 H200 人工智能芯片的进口申请。此前数周，市场一直对中国是否会批准该款高性能芯片的进口、以及进口规模心存疑虑，而此次审批落地，恰逢英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋本周访华。\n赛富时四季度财报发布后，盘后股价下跌 7%。究其原因，可能是该企业软件服务商公布的本财年营收增长预期，与上一财年持平，未能达到投资者预期。赛富时上一财年的订阅业务营收增速为 21%，而本财年的预期增速为 20% 至 21%。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：郭明煜","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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