英伟达–OpenAI 千亿美元“超级协议”搁置，AI 史上最大算力计划为何踩下刹车

DI数智观察01-31

曾被英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋称为“史上最大的计算工程”，如今被悄然按下了暂停键。英伟达拟向 OpenAI 投资至多 1000 亿美元、并为其建设至少 10 吉瓦（GW）AI 超级计算基础设施的标志性计划，已事实上进入搁置状态。多名知情人士透露，双方目前正重新评估合作模式，这项一度被称为“史上最大 AI 基础设施项目”的交易，已不再按照最初设想推进。这笔交易并非正式合同2025 年 9 月，英伟达与 ...

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history（史上最大的计算工程）”。消息公布后，英伟达股价一度上涨近 4%，市值逼近 4.5 万亿美元。但知情人士称，谈判并未如 OpenAI 当时预期的那样在数周内完成，相关讨论迄今仍停留在早期阶段。英伟达为何开始犹豫？交易受阻的关键原因，来自英伟达内部对单一客户 1000 亿美元级风险敞口的担忧。多名英伟达高管质疑，在 AI 行业存在明显”繁荣—萧条周期（boom-bust cycles）“风险的背景下，将如此巨额的资本和算力集中绑定在 OpenAI 一家公司身上，是否具备足够的风险可控性。另一项被反复提及的顾虑，是所谓的“循环交易”：英伟达向客户提供资金支持，而客户再用这些资金购买英伟达的芯片和系统。这种结构在财务与监管层面，均更容易引发外界质疑。黄仁勋近几个月私下向行业人士强调，“1000 亿美元并非锁定金额，该协议不具约束力，也从未最终敲定。”此外，英伟达方面还对 OpenAI 在高速扩张背景下的经营节奏、资本约束及长期投入可持续性保持审慎态度，并密切关注其面临的竞争压力，尤其是来自 Google 和 Anthropic 的快速进展，这在一定程度上削弱了达成类似“准排他性”超级协议的吸引力。从“千亿美元算力”到“数百亿美元投资”目前，双方讨论的重点已明显降级。知情人士称，最新方案不再是 1000 亿美元级别的算力深度绑定，而是英伟达在 OpenAI 当前融资轮中进行一笔“数百亿美元规模”的股权投资，金额显著低于原先设想。英伟达 CFO 也公开表示，公司业绩和未来指引并不依赖这笔超级交易。英伟达已从包括多家头部 AI 初创公司、云厂商和企业客户在内的广泛客户群中，获得了数千亿美元规模的芯片订单。尽管如此，双方并未“分道扬镳”：OpenAI 仍是英伟达的重要客户，英伟达依然被视为 OpenAI 的优选算力合作伙伴OpenAI 发言人表示：“我们的团队正在积极推进合作细节。英伟达技术自一开始就支撑着我们的突破，驱动着我们当前的系统，也将在我们未来规模化发展中继续发挥核心作用。”英伟达方面则回应称，过去 10 年英伟达一直是 OpenAI 的优选合作伙伴，并期待继续合作。这对 OpenAI 意味着什么？这笔交易的搁置，对正为最迟于 2026 年底上市做准备的 OpenAI 而言，并非小事。失去或缩减一项专属的 10 吉瓦、1000 亿美元级算力建设计划，意味着 OpenAI 必须更加依赖：多元化的融资渠道多家云计算合作伙伴（包括微软及其他投资者）甚至可能引入多种芯片供应商如果英伟达的顶级 GPU 未能通过超级协议被“预留”，OpenAI 在争夺高端算力资源时，将面临更为激烈的市场竞争。与此同时，Anthropic 等竞争对手已与英伟达签署了各自的大额供货与投资协议。在战略层面，这也迫使 OpenAI 更清晰地向市场证明，其商业化路径、盈利能力与资本效率，足以支撑任何合作伙伴进行超大规模基础设施投入。英伟达的“降温”与 AI 行业的现实对英伟达而言，交易降温避免了将巨额资本与产能过度绑定在单一客户身上，有助于维持向多家 AI 实验室、云服务商和企业客户供货的灵活性。对监管机构和投资者来说，这一暂停也被视为英伟达主动降低风险、避免行业过度集中及“循环式 AI 投资”的信号。更重要的是，这一事件揭示了一个正在逐渐清晰的现实：即便在 AI 行业最强势的两家公司之间，高调宣布的“超级交易”，也可能随着竞争格局、资本环境以及对 AI 泡沫的担忧变化而迅速生变。正如英伟达在去年 11 月的一份文件中所写：“无法保证我们将就 OpenAI 相关机会签署最终协议，或任何投资会按照预期条款完成，甚至是否完成。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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