科技｜海外AI叙事或重回乐观情形

中信证券研究01-30

图片来源：摄图网（AIGC）文｜许英博连一席陈俊云徐涛李赫然杨泽原张苡铭杨皓天近期，海外推理和训练算力需求旺盛，亚马逊云和谷歌云双双涨价。推理侧， MoltBot（原ClawdBot）、Claude Code等Agent产品加速落地，对于云计算资源的需求显著增加，2026年年初以来Token调用量已经连续2-3周高速增长。训练侧，Grok-5、Veo4等模型仍然在持续迭代，...

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optimism","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDA":1.88,"GOOX":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"AMZN":1.91,"GGLS":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"GOOG":1.92,"NVDX":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOGL":0.66,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"GOOW":0.6},"content_text":"图片来源：摄图网（AIGC）文｜许英博  连一席  陈俊云  徐涛李赫然  杨泽原  张苡铭  杨皓天近期，海外推理和训练算力需求旺盛，亚马逊云和谷歌云双双涨价。推理侧， MoltBot（原ClawdBot）、Claude Code等Agent产品加速落地，对于云计算资源的需求显著增加，2026年年初以来Token调用量已经连续2-3周高速增长。训练侧，Grok-5、Veo4等模型仍然在持续迭代，工业界持续探索Scaling上限，从而支撑训练算力需求。尽管当前AI应用大规模商业化落地能见度仍然不足，但展望未来3-6个月，随着推理端AI应用落地的密集催化叠加训练端模型的持续迭代，我们预判算力需求仍有望进一步上行，一旦美股财报季算力需求得到确认，前期压制算力板块情绪与估值的“算力泡沫论”担忧有望得到阶段性缓解，算力产业链或迎来新一轮上涨。▍报告缘起：海外推理和训练算力需求旺盛，亚马逊云和谷歌云双双涨价。在2026年1月23日AWS对EC2机器学习容量块实施约15%的价格上调后，1月27日，谷歌云宣布旗下云网络传输服务将开启一轮涨价，其中北美地区将迎来翻倍涨幅。我们认为本轮云服务涨价源自GPU推理和训练需求的持续上行。展望未来3-6个月，推理端AI应用落地有望持续，叠加训练端模型的密集迭代，我们预判短期内算力需求仍有望进一步上行，前期压制算力板块情绪与估值的“算力泡沫论”担忧有望得到阶段性缓解。▍推理侧：Agent加速落地，有望支撑推理算力需求。近期，AI智能体应用MoltBot（原ClawdBot）迅速出圈，AI Agent继续向前迈进一步，能够获得电脑操作的更高权限，并能够处理更复杂场景的任务，同时也带来更多算力消耗。而Anthropic发布的Claude Code、Agent Skills、Claude Cowork、Claude in Excel等一些列产品亦扩展了Agent落地的使用场景。从实际使用数据来看，根据OpenRouter，自2026年1月初起， Token调用量已连续2–3周保持高速增长，AI应用使用量持续攀升。根据The Information，Anthropic上调2026和2027年营收预期分别至180亿美元和550亿美元。类比上一轮Gemini带来谷歌云的繁荣，Anthropic的云服务供应商亦有望迎来推理需求的迅速上行。▍训练侧：工业界持续探索Scaling上限，从而支撑训练算力需求。模型侧方面，2026Q1新一轮模型有望密集发布。语言模型方面，Grok-5、GPT-6等模型持续探索Scaling效果，料将采用更多数据和更大参数规模在新一代算力平台GB300上训练，从而支撑训练算力需求。多模态模型方面，Veo-4等视频生成模型仍然处于快速迭代阶段，对于算力需求提出更高要求。工业界和学术界对于模型能力边界的探索共同支撑起训练算力的需求。此外，在模型密集迭代发布的背景下，若Grok-5、GPT-6、Veo-4模型能力超预期，对应的英伟达链和谷歌链有望迎来普涨机遇。其中英伟达链因前期Gemini 3能力赶超OpenAI而受到“TPU抢占GPU份额”叙事压制，此轮模型迭代窗口期重估弹性或更大。▍财报催化：美股四季报来临，是算力需求确认的关键时点。当前市场担忧美股CSP业绩情况以及Capex能否持续，四大CSP财报将成为重要观察窗口。2026年1月29日，微软和Meta财报发布，有望首次验证市场对算力需求和资本支出延续性的判断。随后，谷歌2月5日和亚马逊2月6日的财报发布，将进一步完善全年资本支出指引。2月26日英伟达财报发布和3月16-19日GTC大会亦有望开启市场对全年算力投资新一轮上升周期的判断，成为海外算力叙事转向乐观情形的重要催化点。▍风险因素：基础模型迭代不及预期；头部厂商进行技术封锁；宏观经济恶化致使风险投资收紧；开源软件进步超出预期；宏观经济恶化致使用户付费意愿下降；基础模型使用成本提升等。▍投资策略：尽管AI应用大规模商业化落地的能见度仍有限，但在近期海外AI模型与应用密集催化的推动下，海外算力需求有望保持上行趋势，前期围绕算力的担忧或迎来阶段性修复。我们判断，未来3-6个月内，海外算力链有望重回相对乐观情形。结合当前产业演进与模型迭代节奏，建议重点关注三类投资机遇：一是算力需求上行带来云厂商投资机遇，其中Anthropic相关产业链或为Agent的核心受益方向；二是算力需求带来的海外算力链投资机遇。其中英伟达链因前期Gemini 3能力赶超OpenAI而受到“TPU抢占GPU份额”叙事压制，此轮模型迭代窗口期重估弹性或更大；三是模型本身存在超预期可能带来模型公司重估。关于我们中信证券研究网站：https://research.citics.com添加权限请联系您的对口客户经理中信证券研究服务小程序：中信证券研究服务添加权限请联系您的对口客户经理","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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