集体大爆发，特朗普引爆两大市场

券商中国01-28

亚洲货币和大宗商品两大市场齐飞！美国总统特朗普表示，并不担心近期美元走贬，美元因此崩跌。相对应地，新兴亚洲货币指数上涨至自去年9月以来的最高水平，MSCI新兴货币指数创历史新高。与此同时，包括贵金属在内的大宗商品集体走强。黄金突破5200美元/盎司，布油突破66美元/桶，有色金属亦是多数走强。A股有色板块全线走强，有色ETF一度涨超5%。煤炭ETF亦因此大涨近2.7%。那么，后续将如何演绎？特朗普...

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markets","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BNY":1},"content_text":"亚洲货币和大宗商品两大市场齐飞！美国总统特朗普表示，并不担心近期美元走贬，美元因此崩跌。相对应地，新兴亚洲货币指数上涨至自去年9月以来的最高水平，MSCI新兴货币指数创历史新高。与此同时，包括贵金属在内的大宗商品集体走强。黄金突破5200美元/盎司，布油突破66美元/桶，有色金属亦是多数走强。A股有色板块全线走强，有色ETF一度涨超5%。煤炭ETF亦因此大涨近2.7%。那么，后续将如何演绎？特朗普引爆当地时间周二（1月27日），特朗普表示，并不担心近期美元走贬。特朗普表示，美元的价值——看看我们现在的生意就知道了。美元表现非常棒。此话一出，立马引爆美元卖盘。追踪美元对六种主要货币走势的美元指数，周三亚洲盘最低跌到95.566，触及2022年2月以来最低水平。随着美元贬值贸易势头增强，新兴亚洲货币指数上涨至自去年9月以来的最高水平，MSCI新兴货币指数创历史新高。与此同时，大宗商品价格飞涨。国际金价突破5200美元/盎司。国际油价突破66美元/桶。策略师普遍认为，特朗普表态引发美元卖压之后，亚洲货币有望再度受益，原因在于特朗普高度关注亚洲出口，低流动性更能放大影响力。Bank of Nassau 1982 Ltd.首席经济学家Win Thin指出，特朗普政府正在承担一个经过深思熟虑的风险，在局势失控之前，让美元贬值可能是件好事。纽约梅隆银行（BNY）市场策略与洞察主管Bob Savage表示，特朗普这番言论是他即兴表达的观点，他认为美元被高估了。整体而言，可以看到美元面临的压力是，持有美元资产的人需要避险。韩元和日元还有更大的波动空间，日元兑美元汇率短期内的重要水平是152，因为锁定该价位的衍生性商品正在热络交易。除非美国和日本央行采取真正的干预措施，但这在日本2月8日选举和日银采取行动之前似乎不太可能发生，否则日元汇率最多只会跌至148。高盛的警告从今天股市的盘面来看，贵金属、有色金属、石油行业、煤炭行业、化学原料、农业种植等板块概念涨幅居前。市场似乎正在炒作“全面涨价”的逻辑。那么，这个逻辑是否真有那么硬？高盛最新警告称，随着价格飙升与需求减弱，基础金属的上涨将面临逆风。高盛股权研究联合负责人Trina Chen表示，真正的生产商开始负面反应。各行业订单量下降了10%至30%，甚至电网订单也在放缓。她表示，之所以能走到今天，是因为基本面支撑，还有资金流动和宏观环境。但在价格快速上涨之后，这两者不再互相支持。不过，除了美元之外，似乎还有其他变量在影响着大宗商品的价格。中金公司认为，天气作为大宗商品市场的关键扰动变量，让能源、金属、农产品等核心板块同步迎来供需调整，但影响逻辑与核心关切却呈现鲜明的“同频”不“同调”特征——各板块或聚焦气温波动，或紧盯降水变化，关切维度与影响路径各具差异。中金维持2026年美国天然气基本面偏紧的判断，预期NYMEX气价淡季波动区间上移至4—5美元/百万英热；欧洲虽经历暖冬，但天然气库存处于低位，补库需求将对全球LNG市场形成支撑。全球LNG供应放量大背景下，维持欧洲气价中枢下移的趋势判断，预计2026年淡季荷兰TTF气价中枢下移至9—10美元/百万英热。降水是有色金属关键变量。通过数据回测，拉尼娜年冬季，我国长江上游及云南降水量距平为负，水力发电量将有所减少，带动当地水电铝成本上升。冬季的寒冷天气，增加能源消耗，推升电价与气价。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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