光刻机之外的千亿赛道，混合键合如何成为 HBM4 的“唯一门票”？

橙芯视界01-25

2026 年，AI 算力竞赛的焦点早已从 GPU 转移到了“内存墙”。当SK 海力士和三星（Samsung）为了争夺英伟达（NVIDIA）的下一代HBM4订单杀红了眼时，物理学给这场战争按下了一个残酷的暂停键：如何在 JEDEC 规定的 775 微米高度限制内，硬生生塞进 16 层 DRAM？答案不在光刻机里，而在封装厂里。传统的“微凸块”路线在 HBM4 时代已宣告终结。一项名为混合键合（...

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HBM4?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDD":0.6,"NVDA":1.86,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"SOXX":0.87,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"AMAT":1.88,"NVDG":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"04336":1.88,"SMH":0.87,"AMYY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDX":0.6},"content_text":"2026 年，AI 算力竞赛的焦点早已从 GPU 转移到了“内存墙”。当SK 海力士和三星（Samsung）为了争夺英伟达（NVIDIA）的下一代HBM4订单杀红了眼时，物理学给这场战争按下了一个残酷的暂停键：如何在 JEDEC 规定的 775 微米高度限制内，硬生生塞进 16 层 DRAM？答案不在光刻机里，而在封装厂里。传统的“微凸块”路线在 HBM4 时代已宣告终结。一项名为混合键合（Hybrid Bonding）的技术，正成为存储巨头们跨越 HBM4 门槛的唯一门票。这项技术不仅将决定谁能称霸 AI 存储市场，更将催生一个年复合增长率达 28% 的千亿美元级全新赛道。[图片1]混合键合示意图, 图源：AMAT1. 技术定义：打破 10µm 的物理高墙在过去的封装技术中，芯片之间通过微小的焊球（凸块）连接。然而，当间距缩小至10µm时，焊料桥接（Bridging）和底部填充（Underfill）的难度呈指数级上升。 混合键合通过消除凸块解决了这一问题。物理原理：它利用化学机械抛光（CMP）将晶圆表面处理得极度平整，利用范德华力实现氧化物（Oxide）的预键合，随后通过退火（Annealing）实现铜（Cu）原子的相互扩散与连接。【核心优势】无间隙（Gapless）：消除了芯片间的物理空隙，降低了堆叠高度。超高密度：目前量产已达9µm（D2W）甚至1µm（W2W），未来路线图指向0.5µm。热效率：铜对铜的直接连接提供了优于焊料的热传导路径。[图片2]先进封装示意图, 图源：网络2. 工艺分化：W2W 与 D2W 的双轨并行报告详细阐述了混合键合的两种主流工艺路径，分别对应不同的应用场景。晶圆对晶圆（Wafer-to-Wafer, W2W）特征：工艺最成熟，吞吐量最高。要求上下两层晶圆的芯片尺寸必须一致。应用：图像传感器（CIS）和3D NAND。现状：已在 CIS 领域实现近 100% 的渗透率，并在 3D NAND 中由长江存储（Xtacking）率先量产，Kioxia（铠侠）和闪迪紧随其后。[图片3]晶圆对晶圆（Wafer-to-Wafer, W2W）示意图, 图源：AMAT芯片对晶圆（Die-to-Wafer, D2W）特征：灵活性高，支持异构集成（不同尺寸芯片堆叠），且支持KGD筛选，避免坏片浪费。应用：高性能逻辑与 HBM。挑战：对清洁度要求极高。切割后的芯片（Singulated Die）容易携带微小碎屑，任何颗粒都会导致键合失败。因此，等离子切割（Plasma Dicing）等无碎屑工艺成为关键。[图片4]芯片对晶圆（Die-to-Wafer, D2W）示意图, 图源：AMAT3. 应用爆发：HBM4 与 3D NAND 的双轮驱动报告指出，尽管逻辑芯片（如 AMD MI300）备受关注，但在体量上，存储器（Memory）才是混合键合最大的增长引擎。HBM 的“高度焦虑”JEDEC 标准限制了 HBM 模块的总高度（HBM3E 为 775µm）。随着堆叠层数从 12 层迈向16 层（HBM4）甚至 20 层，传统凸块的高度已无法容忍。 AMD MI300X 的 12 层 HBM3 已经将 DRAM Die 厚度减薄至 37µm。为了在16hi HBM4中塞入更多层数，无间隙的混合键合成为唯一解。它不仅节省了垂直空间，还提供了更好的散热通道。3D NAND 的结构革命长江存储的Xtacking架构验证了混合键合在 NAND 领域的巨大价值：将存储阵列与外围逻辑电路（Periphery）分开制造，再通过 W2W 键合。这使得 I/O 速度和存储密度大幅提升。 TechInsights 预测，未来 5 年内，超过 60% 的 3D NAND将采用混合键合技术。到 2029 年，NAND 将占据混合键合市场营收的一半以上。逻辑领域的领跑者AMD 是 D2W 混合键合的激进采用者。从Ryzen 7 5800X3D（堆叠 SRAM）到Instinct MI300（AI 加速器），AMD 利用 TSMC 的 SoIC 技术实现了逻辑与存储的垂直互连，克服了“内存墙”瓶颈。“橙芯”视点1. 物理尺寸的强制性迁移混合键合的爆发并非源于厂商的“炫技”，而是物理尺寸的强制性约束。在 HBM4 时代，当 16 层 DRAM 必须塞进 775µm 的空间时，微凸块（Microbumps）所占据的几十微米高度成了无法承受的浪费。混合键合从“可选项”变成“必选项”，本质上是因为它消除了垂直方向上的死重（Dead Weight）。2. 核心瓶颈转移：从光刻到 CMP在混合键合流程中，表面平坦度（Surface Planarity）是生杀予夺的关键。两个晶圆表面的粗糙度必须控制在纳米级别，任何微小的凹陷（Dishing）或腐蚀（Erosion）都会导致电气连接断路。这意味着，半导体制造的重心正在从图形化（光刻）向材料去除（CMP）转移。Applied Materials等 CMP 设备商将在这一轮技术迭代中获得比以往更高的产业链权重。3. NAND 才是真正的“吞金兽”虽然 AI 芯片（Logic/HBM）吸引了所有聚光灯，但 TechInsights 的数据揭示了一个被忽视的事实：3D NAND 才是混合键合最大的应用市场。相比于 HBM 的昂贵和小众，3D NAND 的巨大出货量将推动混合键合设备的规模化普及和成本下降。长江存储（YMTC）在这一领域的激进布局（Xtacking），实际上是在为整个行业探路。互动探讨随着工艺重心的后移，您认为像 Applied Materials（CMP设备）和 Besi（键合设备）这样的“铲子商”，是否会成为未来关注的重点？欢迎在评论区分享您的观点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2606625290","isCrawlerRequest":true}