国信证券：酒店业新周期开启头部玩家重塑成长价值

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智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，判断当前酒店行业基本面处于历史周期底部，股价已领先基本面逐步启动估值修复。在供给侧新阶段以及需求政策期权带动下，龙头有望展现业绩弹性，参考历史周期业绩弹性释放高点估值有望实现双击，当前配置价值依然突出。建议超配酒店龙头，短期结合估值、业绩弹性与个股主观动能;中线参考海外酒店管理龙头确定性品牌变现的稳健增长与良好现金流支撑股东回报的配置价值，优先看好具备强门店...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260126152607a6ad23b4&s=b><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，判断当前酒店行业基本面处于历史周期底部，股价已领先基本面逐步启动估值修复。在供给侧新阶段以及需求政策期权带动下，龙头有望展现业绩弹性，参考历史周期业绩弹性释放高点估值有望实现双击，当前配置价值依然突出。建议超配酒店龙头，短期结合估值、业绩弹性与个股主观动能;中线参考海外酒店管理龙头确定性品牌变现的稳健增长与良好现金流支撑股东回报的配置价值，优先看好具备强门店...</p>\n\n<a 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value","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01179":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，判断当前酒店行业基本面处于历史周期底部，股价已领先基本面逐步启动估值修复。在供给侧新阶段以及需求政策期权带动下，龙头有望展现业绩弹性，参考历史周期业绩弹性释放高点估值有望实现双击，当前配置价值依然突出。建议超配酒店龙头，短期结合估值、业绩弹性与个股主观动能;中线参考海外酒店管理龙头确定性品牌变现的稳健增长与良好现金流支撑股东回报的配置价值，优先看好具备强门店与会员网络的龙头。国信证券主要观点如下：国内酒店龙头市值从百亿级发展至今呈现非线性增长特征，周期拐点预期与资本整合是跃升的核心驱动力，长期看规模与效益复盘酒店估值遵循\"周期为锚、成长性为助推器、中线看规模与效益\"三维体系：宏观供需错配决定估值拐点(如2016-2018年周期上行阶段估值提升至40-50x，而2024-2025年供给回补周期下行阶段估值回落至15-20x)，中观结构升级与模式升级放大波动(如华住在2016-2018年中端升级期的估值放大)，公司自身经营周期提供个股阿尔法展现出逆势估值提升(如亚朵在2024年行业下行期凭借零售业务超预期推动估值从15x修复至23x);长期视角对比海外成熟龙头各项指标，龙头规模成长、单房经营效率、股东回报构成稳态估值差异关键。当前周期底部行业分化加大，供需再平衡阶段龙头RevPAR有望触底回升(一)供给侧：行业稳定现金流特征使得总供给受其他物业切入增量边际扰动，但开店与投资回报需求平衡下行业有望进入新常态增长阶段，以龙头为例储备店较高位呈现回落;此前国内酒店周期复苏和下降时一般均为量先行，价随后;本轮周期拐点伴随龙头从\"OCC优先\"转向\"最优RevPAR\"策略调整，行业呈现价格先行特征，其中华住Q3 ADR已率先转正;背后本质是核心城市连锁化率与集中度提升，龙头核心物业获取能力提升、收益管理系统升级与属地化改革深化定价权，因此有望展现出更强溢价能力;酒店REITs制度性破冰，为运营效率优势龙头提供资本化思路。(二)需求端：休闲旅游景气，商旅需求基数走低，十五五首年叠加服务消费政策提供看涨期权。本轮行情正在顺应估值体系演进，当前时点重视龙头第三阶段估值修复疫后周期变化下，龙头行情启动节奏与驱动因素呈现显著差异：一是成长性龙头穿越周期最早启动，亚朵凭借新零售业务进入变现加速期，轻资产加盟扩张维持行业最快增速，成长性阿尔法属性凸显，股价已于2024下半年率先启动，后续核心观察中高端品牌价值持续变现及轻居第二曲线;二是强阿尔法龙头周期拐点领先估值修复，华住依托万店规模优势维持快速轻资产扩张，产品力溢价能力与股东回报优势突出，股价于2025下半年提前行业拐点释放估值修复，短期聚焦周期向上阶段业绩弹性，中长期看市占率与利润率的持续扩张;三是A股龙头期权组合，首旅酒店门店基本盘深度迭代后进入新开店周期，2026年底万店目标可期，具备估值修复空间;锦江酒店组织调整进入尾声，内部整合潜力有望逐步释放，拟港股上市提升治理能动性;君亭背靠湖北国资与REITs探索先发优势，有望走差异化成长路径。风险提示：1、政策风险;2、竞争恶化;3、整合低于预期;4、产品老化。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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国信证券：酒店业新周期开启 头部玩家重塑成长价值

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国信证券：酒店业新周期开启头部玩家重塑成长价值