TMT行业周报（01月第3周）：台积电法说会积极定调AI需求

世纪证券01-27

（以下内容从世纪证券《TMT行业周报（01月第3周）：台积电法说会积极定调AI需求》研报附件原文摘录）行业观点：周度市场回顾。TMT板块内一级行业上周（1/19-1/23）涨跌幅为：传媒（1.98%）、电子（1.39%）、计算机（-0.30%）、通信（-2.12%）。板块内涨幅靠前的三级子行业分别为营销代理（8.19%）、集成电路封测（7.25%）、LED（5.74%），跌幅靠前的三级子行业分别为...

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demand","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.95},"content_text":"（以下内容从世纪证券《TMT行业周报（01月第3周）：台积电法说会积极定调AI需求》研报附件原文摘录）行业观点：周度市场回顾。TMT板块内一级行业上周（1/19-1/23）涨跌幅为：传媒（1.98%）、电子（1.39%）、计算机（-0.30%）、通信（-2.12%）。板块内涨幅靠前的三级子行业分别为营销代理（8.19%）、集成电路封测（7.25%）、LED（5.74%），跌幅靠前的三级子行业分别为门户网站（-3.71%）、通信网络设备及器件（-3.31%）、品牌消费电子（-2.53%）。细分到个股来看，电子周涨幅前三的标的分别为江化微（46.41%）、金安国纪（38.39%）、龙芯中科（33.07%）；计算机周涨幅前三的标的分别为*ST立方（95.52%）、海联讯（28.76%）、星环科技-U（26.08%）；传媒周涨幅前三的标的分别为蓝色光标（26.15%）、天地在线（23.89%）、浙文互联（20.02%）；通信周涨幅前三的标的为鼎通科技（23.70%）、亨通光电（10.85%）、信科移动-U（10.40%）。台积电公布2025Q4业绩。1月15日，台积电发布2025Q4财报：2025Q4实现收入337亿美元，超上季度指引（322-334亿美元），单季度毛利率为62.3%，超上季度指引（59%-61%），运营利润率为54%，超上季度指引（49%-51%）。另外，公司给出下季度及全年指引，预计2026Q1收入为346-358亿美元，中值环比增长4%，毛利率指引为63%-65%，中值环比提升1.7pct，运营利润率指引为54-56%，中值环比提升1pct，预计2026年全年资本开支为520-560亿美元。根据法说会交流：公司认为AI需求持续向好，预计2024-2029年AI加速器业务CAGR将达到50%+，较此前40%+的指引有所上修；针对近期市场对于AI泡沫担忧，公司表示与下游客户经过长时间沟通以及谨慎判断，已确认过客户需求是真实存在的，财务报表是健康的；对于后续资本开支，公司表示过去三年投入1010亿美元，未来三年还将显著增加。本次台积电通过强劲业绩以及在法说会上针对AI需求的积极定调，有望逐步打消近期市场对于AI泡沫的担忧，伴随中期维度的AI加速服务器CAGR上修，建议关注与海外算力相关度高的光模块、PCB、液冷及服务器等细分环节，另外，伴随晶圆厂的资本开支上修，全球AI军备竞赛白热化，我们建议关注国产半导体设备环节。风险提示：AI资本开支不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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