里德尔跃居美联储主席最大热门债市骤然掀起降息押注潮

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智通财经APP获悉，随着贝莱德(BLK.US)首席投资官里克·里德尔(Rick Rieder)出任美联储下任主席的呼声日益高涨，债券期货交易员正加大押注美联储将转向鸽派政策。近日，与美联储政策基准利率——担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)和联邦基金利率挂钩的利率期货市场资金流动显著提速，与此同时，预测市场显示里德尔出任下任美联储主席的赔率跃居首位。周一公布的联邦基金期货与SOFR期货持仓数据显示，市场对...

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Rieder)出任美联储下任主席的呼声日益高涨，债券期货交易员正加大押注美联储将转向鸽派政策。近日，与美联储政策基准利率——担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)和联邦基金利率挂钩的利率期货市场资金流动显著提速，与此同时，预测市场显示里德尔出任下任美联储主席的赔率跃居首位。周一公布的联邦基金期货与SOFR期货持仓数据显示，市场对新交易的需求持续攀升，这类交易将从比当前定价更激进的降息路径中获益。值得关注的是，7-8月的1个月期联邦基金利率期货利差、6-12月的6个月期SOFR期货利差均录得历史成交量。作为华尔街资深人士，市场认为里德尔若执掌美联储，将推行以市场为核心的政策思路。去年9月，他曾主张美联储采取更激进的50个基点降息举措，而非美联储此前偏好的25个基点小幅降息;同时，他也对美联储通过“点阵图”为未来利率走势提供前瞻性指引的做法持反对态度。包括Krishna Guha在内的Evercore ISI经济学家本周早些时候撰文称：“里德尔倾向于鸽派利率政策，或推动美联储今年实施三次降息。”该观点的依据是里德尔对生产率、通胀动态及劳动力市场压力的一系列看法。当前，利率互换市场定价显示，2026年美联储仅会实施不到两次25个基点的降息。但在SOFR期权市场，近期大量押注多次降息的头寸涌入，交易员目标是到2026年底联邦基金利率降至1.5%的低位，这一水平远低于利率互换市场当前约3.2%的定价。此类合约的交易均为匿名进行，因此难以确认参与交易的机构主体，也无法精准判断这些押注的最终获益方。据预测市场平台Polymarket数据，投资者认为里德尔的鸽派立场比此前的热门人选、前美联储理事凯文・沃什更为鲜明，目前沃什的出任赔率已降至29%。本月初，里德尔接受特朗普专访并获得积极反响后，其出任美联储主席的概率已攀升至约47%。杰富瑞欧洲首席策略师Mohit Kumar表示：“尽管里德尔不太可能对特朗普的观点一概附和，但相比其他几位人选，他的政策立场大概率会略微更偏鸽派。他的上任或将为美联储主席一职带来公信力，同时缓解市场的部分担忧。”以下为利率市场最新持仓指标一览：摩根大通调查截至1月26日当周，投资者情绪保持不变，多头仓位维持在24个百分点的去年12月以来高位。净多头仓位维持在5个百分点。SOFR期权市场在2026年9月到期的SOFR期权中，行权价96.5625的合约新增大量风险敞口，过去一周，3月和6月到期的看涨期权交易活跃。6月到期的看跌期权在该行权价也增加了可观的风险敞口。该行权价附近的热门交易品种包括：SFRM6 96.50/96.5625看涨价差、SFRH6 96.4375/96.50/96.5625看涨蝶式期权以及SFRM6 96.5625/96.4375/96.3125看跌梯形期权。此外，3月执行价96.4375的看涨期权也新增大量风险敞口，近期成交的品种还包括SFRH6 96.375/96.4375/96.50看涨蝶式期权和SFRH6 96.375/96.4375看涨价差。更广泛来看，行权价96.50的合约持仓最为集中，大量未平仓头寸集中在3月和6月看涨期权，近期该行权价需求通过SFRH6 96.375/96.4375/96.50看涨蝶式期权和SFRM6 96.50/96.5625看涨价差体现。行权价96.75的合约持仓同样密集，过去一周未平仓合约量有所增加，其中较大资金流包括买入SFRU6 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里德尔跃居美联储主席最大热门 债市骤然掀起降息押注潮

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里德尔跃居美联储主席最大热门债市骤然掀起降息押注潮