高盛拆解“FSD险”：名为“五折优惠”，实为拉平与燃油车的保费差价

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vehicles","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.96,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"GS":1.84,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6},"content_text":"喜欢本公众号的话可以点下面关注，每天会更新多条热门研报原文；只添加关注可能收不到及时推送，需要及时收到的朋友可以星标公众号！完整原文已经发在知识星球，欢迎加入特斯拉公司（TSLA）：Lemonade 针对使用 FSD 提供更低保险定价——并将其置于更广泛的汽车保险成本背景中；同时更新自动驾驶出租车进展2026 年 1 月 25 日围绕特斯拉 FSD、自动驾驶出租车以及汽车业务的核心投资者争论，往往集中在一个问题上：特斯拉在 AI 与汽车技术方面的路径（例如端到端 AI 架构、来自联网车队的数据优势，以及同时用于 FSD 与自动驾驶出租车的低成本传感器与算力方案）是否能够支持其快速扩大自动驾驶出租车运营规模，并推动更多整车与 FSD 的销售。这其中还包括未来在更大地理范围内实现消费者端“无人监管”FSD 与自动驾驶出租车网络的潜在能力、通过 FSD 技术提升整车销量（特斯拉 CEO 在 2025 年 11 月股东日曾表示，FSD 技术有望推动整车销量回升，并在 2026 年底前使产量重新回到 50% 的增长轨道），以及培育一个高毛利率的 FSD 订阅业务。事实上，最新的 CEO 薪酬激励方案中也设定了多项与上述增长目标相关的业绩里程碑，包括实现 1,000 万活跃 FSD 订阅用户、累计销售 2,000 万辆汽车，以及运营一支规模达 100 万辆的自动驾驶出租车车队。在 1 月 23 日当周，有几项关键数据点与上述“规模化”讨论密切相关。一是 Lemonade 宣布推出一项保险方案，在启用 FSD 的情况下，其按里程计费部分的保费可下调 50%；二是根据特斯拉在 X 平台发布的信息，特斯拉已在奥斯汀的部分自动驾驶出租车车辆中移除了安全监控员。以下是我们的具体情况说明与观点。A）Lemonade——自动驾驶汽车保险方案有望使特斯拉的保险成本接近传统车企车型2026 年 1 月 21 日，Lemonade 宣布将在部分州推出“自动驾驶汽车保险”方案（本月晚些时候率先在亚利桑那州上线，随后于下月在俄勒冈州推出）。该方案在使用 FSD（我们认为需为 v14.2 或以上版本）时，将按里程计费部分的保费下调 50%。公司表示，这一定价调整基于在启用 FSD 时可获得的安全性数据（相关内容见彭博报道以及我们与公司沟通的结果）。需要注意的是，这一 50% 的降幅仅适用于按里程计费部分，保单中仍包含一个基础保费部分。我们获取了多家保险公司（包括 Lemonade、Geico、Progressive 以及 Liberty Mutual）针对 Model Y、Mustang Mach-E 以及 RAV4 的样本报价。历史上，新兴电动车厂商的车型保险成本通常高于传统车企车型，我们认为这与维修成本等因素有关。在控制免赔额等条件一致的情况下，我们团队成员从主流保险机构获得的典型报价显示，特斯拉 Model Y 的月保费约为 275 美元，而 RAV4 约为 175 美元，Mach-E 约为 225 美元（不同州与不同人群结构可能导致实际结果存在差异）。根据我们的测算，若假设每月行驶约 1,000 英里且全部里程均使用 FSD，则在 Lemonade 新方案下，月度保险成本约为 200 美元（但实际情况下，用户未必 100% 时间启用 FSD）。我们的分析表明，在使用 Lemonade 方案且启用 FSD 的情况下，特斯拉的保险成本并未低于整个行业平均水平，但在部分州，确实有望显著降低特斯拉车主的用车成本。这也反映出，保险行业正在尝试将 ADAS 技术所带来的安全性改善纳入定价，并在性能表现具备说服力时调整费率。类似地，我们在 2025 年 6 月发布的自动驾驶深度报告中也假设，随着时间推移，自动驾驶车辆的保险成本将逐步改善，并最终有望低于由人类司机主导的网约车体系。对保险行业的影响（来自 Rob Cox 及美国保险研究团队）Lemonade 推出的自动驾驶车辆保险方案，是目前最具象的证据之一，表明在事故发生频率被证明显著降低的情况下，保险公司愿意给予车辆实质性的核保优惠。正如我们在 2025 年 6 月自动驾驶报告中所阐述的观点，我们仍认为，长期来看，自动驾驶有潜力显著降低事故发生频率，并重塑事故相关的理赔成本分布与法律责任结构，从而为保险公司与整车厂同时带来风险与机遇。在我们看来，尽管 Lemonade 的公告在市场层面较为吸睛，但并未实质性改变我们此前对汽车保险行业在未来 10–15 年内仅实现温和实际保费增长的判断。相反，该公告更像是我们长期观点的一次阶段性印证：行业事故发生频率有望在可预见的未来持续下降，这一趋势在历史上已多次出现。同时，有必要将 Lemonade 所谓“50% 降费”放在更合理的背景下理解。具体来看，Lemonade 是将特定特斯拉车型的按里程费率，在其此前自身定价基础上下调 50%，而基础费率（通常约占整体保费的 50%）并未发生变化。如前所述，若驾驶员 100% 行程均使用 FSD，其整体保费水平更接近行业平均值，而非相较于 ADAS 水平较低的燃油车出现明显折价；若 FSD 仅部分时间启用，则整体保费仍将高于燃油车的行业平均水平。此外，特斯拉这类更高阶 L2 车型目前在整体 L2 车队中的占比仍然有限。尽管如此，我们预计，未来 FSD 启用比例、L2 车队渗透率，以及更高阶 L2 车型的占比均有望持续提升。总体而言，我们认为，若类似 Lemonade 的产品在行业范围内推广，其对我们关于中期行业保费温和增长预期的影响仍然有限。原因在于，L2 渗透对整体道路安全性的改善，可能会被索赔严重程度的中个位数增长所抵消，这些增长来自一般性通胀及社会通胀因素（例如陪审团裁决金额上升、律师费用比例提高等）。我们将持续关注 Lemonade 自动驾驶定价的后续变化，公司已表示，若实际理赔经验与当前预期出现偏差，未来不排除调整定价。B）自动驾驶出租车——特斯拉在部分商业运营车辆中移除安全监控员2026 年 1 月 22 日，特斯拉在 X 平台发布信息称，其已在奥斯汀的部分自动驾驶出租车车辆中移除了安全监控员（尽管也有用户指出，仍有一辆试验车辆似乎用于监管用途）。回顾此前，特斯拉已于 2025 年 12 月 14 日宣布开始测试在无监控员情况下的运营。我们将这一进展视为特斯拉的一项积极信号，并将持续跟踪其扩大无人驾驶商业运营的节奏。不过，就目前来看，奥斯汀这一小规模尝试，并不足以在我们看来实质性回答特斯拉是否已具备在短期内大规模推广自动驾驶出租车业务的关键争论。相较之下，我们认为特斯拉在 FSD v14 上取得的进展，更能体现其技术层面的实质改善，其中也包括近期来自《Barron’s》和《MotorTrend》的正面评价。特斯拉在 3Q 财报电话会上曾披露，其已装车基数中约有 12% 的用户为 FSD 付费（我们认为该数据涵盖一次性授权与订阅两种形式）。尽管我们仍然认为，特斯拉的 FSD 与自动驾驶出租车业务将在中长期持续增长，但我们也预计，竞争格局将限制其利润增长的上限。例如，Waymo 计划在 2026 年底前将运营城市数量从 2025 年的 5 个扩展至 15 个，并已开始在迈阿密运营；同时，英伟达在 CES 上宣布将开源其 Alpamayo 模型及相关工具。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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