微软“Maia 200”强化ASIC崛起叙事高速铜缆、DCI与光互连站上自研AI芯片风口

智通财经网01-28

智通财经APP获悉，欧洲金融巨头法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)周二发布研报称，随着微软(MSFT.US)升级换代后的第二代自研人工智能芯片(AI芯片)“Maia 200”横空出世，且这款自研AI芯片引爆新一轮AI算力产业链投资狂潮，聚焦于大型AI数据中心定制化AI芯片(即 AI ASIC芯片)的ASIC领军者们——例如美国芯片设计巨头迈威尔(MRVL.US)及其最大竞争对手博通公司(...

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ASIC领军者们，其次则是数据中心高速互连(DCI)、高速铜缆以及数据中心光互连领军者们也有望大幅受益于新一轮AI算力投资狂潮。从更深层次的角度洞察整个AI算力产业链体系，不难发现AI ASIC、DCI、高速铜缆以及数据中心光互连，可谓同时受益于微软、谷歌以及亚马逊云计算巨头们主导的AI ASIC超级大势以及英伟达/AMD主导的AI GPU算力基础设施体系。无论是谷歌无比庞大的TPU AI算力集群(TPU也走的是AI ASIC技术路线)，抑或是谷歌、OpenAI、微软等AI巨头们仍然在大举购置的海量英伟达AI GPU算力集群，均离不开数据中心高速互连(DCI)、高速铜缆以及数据中心光互连领军者们。此外，抛开GPU与ASIC这两大路线，无论是英伟达主导的“InfiniBand + Spectrum-X/以太网”高性能网络基础架构，还是谷歌主导的“OCS(即Optical Circuit Switching，光路交换)”高性能网络基础架构背后都离不开高速铜缆、数据中心高速互连(DCI)与光互连设备供应商们。也就是说，无论是“谷歌主导的AI ASIC算力链”(TPU/OCS)还是“OpenAI 算力链”(英伟达 IB/以太网)，最终都会在同一组“硬约束”上会师——数据中心高速互连(DCI)、数据中心光互连、高速铜缆以及数据存储底座(企业级存储/容量介质/内存测试)。谷歌在11月下旬重磅推出Gemini3 AI应用生态之后，这一最前沿AI应用软件随即风靡全球，推动谷歌AI算力需求瞬间激增。Gemini3 系列产品一经发布即带来无比庞大的AI token处理量，迫使谷歌大幅调低Gemini 3 Pro与Nano Banana Pro的免费访问量，对Pro订阅用户也实施暂时限制，叠加韩国近期贸易出口数据显示SK海力士与三星电子HBM存储系统以及企业级SSD需求持续强劲，进一步验证了华尔街所高呼的“AI热潮仍然处于算力基础设施供不应求的早期建设阶段”。在华尔街巨头摩根士丹利、花旗、Loop Capital以及Wedbush看来，以AI算力硬件为核心的全球人工智能基础设施投资浪潮远远未完结，现在仅仅处于开端，在前所未有的“AI推理端算力需求风暴”推动之下，持续至2030年的这一轮全球整体AI基础设施投资浪潮规模有望高达3万亿至4万亿美元。随着AI推理狂潮席卷全球，属于AI ASIC的黄金时代到来类似“星际之门”的超大规模AI数据中心建设成本高昂，因此科技巨头们愈发要求AI算力系统趋于经济性，以及电力约束之下，科技巨头力争把“单位Token成本、单位瓦特产出”做到极致，属于AI ASIC技术路线的繁荣盛世可谓已经到来。毫无疑问的是，经济性与电力层面的重大约束，迫使微软、亚马逊、谷歌以及Facebook母公司Meta都在推AI ASIC技术路线的云计算内部系统自研AI芯片，核心目的都是为了AI算力集群更具性价比与能效比。微软把 Maia 200的定位直接写成“显著改善AI token generation的经济性”，并多次强调performance per dollar;AWS 也把 Trainium3 的目标写成“best token economics”，并用能效/性价比作为卖点;谷歌云计算平台则将Ironwood定义为“人工智能推理时代”的专用 TPU(TPU也属于AI ASIC技术路线)，强调能效与大规模推理服务。随着DeepSeek彻底掀起AI训练与推理层面的“效率革命”，推动未来AI大模型开发向“低成本”与“高性能”两大核心聚焦，相比于英伟达AI GPU路线更具性价比优势的AI ASIC在云端AI推理算力需求猛增的背景之下，迈入比2023-2025年期间AI热潮时期更加强劲的需求扩张轨迹，未来谷歌、OpenAI以及Meta等大客户有望持续斥巨资携手博通开发AI ASIC芯片。法巴银行分析师团队表示，虽然迈威尔以及博通不太可能成为微软自研Maia 200 AI芯片的芯片设计合作伙伴——法国巴黎银行认为与微软共同Maia 200 的独家技术供应商可能是来自中国台湾的Global Unichip，类似于博通和谷歌共同开发TPU AI算力集群的合作伙伴关系。但是法巴银行认为，随着微软点燃新一轮AI算力投资热潮，迈威尔与博通仍可能通过“ASIC绝对领军者”身份标签而前面受益于自研AI风潮引领的投资主题。摩根士丹利近日发布的一份研报显示，谷歌TPU AI芯片的实际产量在2027年和2028年将分别达到500万和700万块，较该金融巨头此前给出的预期可谓分别大举上修67%、120%。而这一产量激增预期可能预示着谷歌将开启TPU AI芯片的直接对外销售。更具基本面冲击力的是，大摩的这份研究报告测算每50万片TPU外销，便有望为谷歌带来130亿美元的额外营收以及高达0.40美元的每股收益。市场研究机构Counterpoint Research在最新研报中预测，非AI GPU系列服务器的核心AI芯片——即AI ASIC阵营，在近期将经历高速增长曲线，预计到2027年出货数量将达到2024年的三倍，2028年则有望以1500余万颗的规模反超GPU。报告显示，这一爆炸性增长的背后，是对谷歌TPU基础设施的强劲需求、AWS Trainium集群的持续扩展，以及Meta (MTIA) 和微软 (Maia) 随着其云计算系统内部自研AI芯片产品组合的扩展而带来的产能提升。高速铜缆、数据中心高速互连(DCI)与光互连法巴银行在研报中列出的其他潜在受益者包括数据中心高速铜缆(DAC/AEC)领军者安费诺(Amphenol，APH);Lumentum等数据中心光互连参与者们;Arista Networks(ANET.US)这一数据中心高速互连(DCI)领军者们;以及如果使用有源高速铜缆(active electrical cables，即AEC)，则可能还包括Credo Technologies(CRDO.US)和Astera Labs(ALAB.US)。无论是英伟达主导的 InfiniBand / Spectrum-X 以太网高性能网络，还是Alphabet旗下谷歌(Google) 在 Jupiter 架构中引入的 OCS(光路交换)，最终都要落到“物理互连栈”——服务器/加速卡集群之间互连到交换机之间的高速铜互连(短距)、机架/机房/楼宇尺度的光互连(中长距)，以及在跨楼/跨园区/跨站点时由DCI 光传输/互联把网络与存储域拉通。NVIDIA 自己对其以太网平台的定义就把交换机、网卡/SmartNIC、DPU 与线缆/收发器(LinkX)作为端到端组成部分，并明确列出从DAC 铜缆到AOC/多模/单模光的覆盖范围。从“星际之门”等全球AI数据中心超级工程层面角度来看，更加精确的表述是：铜缆与光互联各司其职。在超大规模 AI 集群里，“机架内/邻近机架”的短距高速互连(例如交换机到服务器网卡)通常优先用 DAC/AEC(铜缆)来压低延迟、功耗与成本;而当带宽上到 400/800G 且距离拉长(跨机架/跨行/跨机房)时，链路预算和功耗会把方案推向 AOC/可插拔高速光模块级别光互连设备，甚至更激进的硅光/CPO路线。另一方面，Google 主导的OCS是在数据中心网络架构层面把光路交换引入 Jupiter，以解决规模与演进中的布线/容量问题——它本质上更“偏光”，但同样离不开端口侧的光电接口与高速布线体系。Lumentum 之所以是谷歌AI大爆发的最大赢家之一，主要是因为它正好做的是与谷歌TPU AI算力集群深度捆绑的“高性能网络底座系统”中的不可或缺光互连——即OCS(光路交换机)+ 高速光器件，TPU数量每多一层量级，它的出货就跟着往上乘。在OpenAI链这一侧，英伟达所主导的“InfiniBand 与以太网”深度捆绑ANET/CSCO/HPE公司的这类交换机与数据中心网络系统，但并不是“排斥光互联”，相反，英伟达“IB+以太网”成功把“铜的确定性 + 光的长距离/高带宽密度”打包成标准化互连体系。分析师阿克曼等人在致客户们的研究报告中写道：“我们认为，Maia 200机架级别AI算力基础设施系统将包含12个大型计算型trays、4台Tier-1以太网scale-up交换机、6个CPU头节点(CPU head nodes)、2台用于前端网络的机架顶部(ToR)以太网交换机，以及1台带外管理交换机(out-of-band management switch)。”阿克曼等分析师补充道：“对我们来说最有意思的是，Maia 200可能不会使用后端(backend)的scale-out网络架构。”他还表示：“Maia 200将以6,144颗ASIC为单位，部署在小型scale-up集群中，这些集群将通过CPU头节点和前端以太网交换机连接到‘外部世界’。鉴于Maia 200堪称是为推理(inferencing)工作负载量身定制的，我们认为这种拓扑结构是合理的，因为海量的AI推理工作负载可能不需要由数十万颗ASIC组成且需要同步协作的超级集群(superclusters)。”阿克曼领导的分析师团队补充称，微软自研的Maia 200 AI算力基础设施大规模部署预计将在2026年下半年开始加速放量，并将在明年进一步推进进一步渗透至微软各大数据中心。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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微软“Maia 200”强化ASIC崛起叙事 高速铜缆、DCI与光互连站上自研AI芯片风口

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微软“Maia 200”强化ASIC崛起叙事高速铜缆、DCI与光互连站上自研AI芯片风口