广发证券：超产管控叠加碳市场水泥供给持续优化

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智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据数字水泥网和国家统计局数据统计，预计2024/2025水泥熟料产能利用率53%/50%，产能严重过剩。经过过去两年时间的政策酝酿和宣导，2026-2027年将迎来以“超产管控+碳市场”为主导的供给端政策管控，有望带来水泥超产产能和落后产能陆续退出，水泥供给优化将带来盈利中枢提升。中长期来看，水泥行业供给有望持续优化，建议关注底部水泥资产。广发证券主要观点...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1397816.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据数字水泥网和国家统计局数据统计，预计2024/2025水泥熟料产能利用率53%/50%，产能严重过剩。经过过去两年时间的政策酝酿和宣导，2026-2027年将迎来以“超产管控+碳市场”为主导的供给端政策管控，有望带来水泥超产产能和落后产能陆续退出，水泥供给优化将带来盈利中枢提升。中长期来看，水泥行业供给有望持续优化，建议关注底部水泥资产。广发证券主要观点...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1397816.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1934453819.USD","symbol_name":"AB CHINA A SHARES EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) 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optimize","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"01776":1.5,"01313":0.9,"000776":1.5,"03323":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据数字水泥网和国家统计局数据统计，预计2024/2025水泥熟料产能利用率53%/50%，产能严重过剩。经过过去两年时间的政策酝酿和宣导，2026-2027年将迎来以“超产管控+碳市场”为主导的供给端政策管控，有望带来水泥超产产能和落后产能陆续退出，水泥供给优化将带来盈利中枢提升。中长期来看，水泥行业供给有望持续优化，建议关注底部水泥资产。广发证券主要观点如下：超产管控：目前已有实质性产能出清2025年9月24日，工信部联合六部门发布《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，明确水泥企业要在2025年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。根据数字水泥网统计，截至2025年底，全国水泥行业通过置换退出熟料产能合计为1.6亿吨(考虑超产后估算实际退出约2亿吨)；鉴于2025年版补产能规则公示公告时间延迟至2026/3/31，预计到26Q1末，熟料产能退出总量预计将达到2亿吨(考虑超产后估算实际退出约2.5亿吨)。即到26Q1末，实际产能有望从21亿吨降至18亿吨，将带来2026年产能利用率提升。碳市场：2027年之后进入深度减排阶段，总量和强度双控，有望倒逼落后产能出清2025-2026年是碳市场启动实施阶段，碳配额政策对水泥成本影响较小，根据《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》，2024年碳配额=当年核查的碳排放量；2025年碳配额=当年核查的碳排放量*(1+碳排放强度系数α)，α=±3%，排放强度高于/低于基准水平20%的企业配额盈余率/亏缺率为±3%，以水泥熟料工序直接碳排约0.87tCO2/t、最新碳价82元/t计算，2025年水泥企业最大盈余/亏缺估计约±2元/吨。2027年之后进行碳排放总量和强度双控，预计碳配额将明显收缩、碳价上涨(理论上头部和尾部碳排放至少差10%，海外碳价几百元/吨)，预计届时小企业将以更高的碳价购买更多的碳配额(远高于目前阶段)，将增加中小企业环保成本，拉大其和龙头企业之间的成本差距，从而倒逼落后产能出清。投资建议2024年国内水泥盈利见底，2025年整体底部震荡，2026年产能利用率有望提升、盈利中枢有望同比提升。2026-2027年“超产管控+碳市场”带来超产产能和落后产能退出，中长期来看，水泥行业供给有望持续优化，建议关注底部水泥资产，关注海螺水泥(600585.SH)、华新建材(600801.SH)、华润建材科技(01313)、中国建材(03323)、上峰水泥(000672.SZ)、塔牌集团(002233.SZ)、西部水泥(02233)。风险提示宏观经济继续下行风险，货币房地产等政策大幅波动风险，行业新投产能超预期风险，原材料成本上涨过快风险等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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广发证券：超产管控叠加碳市场 水泥供给持续优化

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广发证券：超产管控叠加碳市场水泥供给持续优化