“太空光伏”引爆涨停潮，概念炒作难掩行业供需双弱

第一财经01-25

短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。　　近日，A股光伏板块全线爆发，多只个股上演20%涨停潮，连城数控（920368.BJ）、欧普泰（920414.BJ）更是录得“30cm”涨停，港股市场太阳能概念股亦同步共振。引爆行情的是美国富豪马斯克在达沃斯论坛上对太空光伏的最新力挺，其为低迷已久的光伏板块注入了强烈的题材预期。　　然而，掀开概念炒作的表层，光伏行业面临的却是...

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Emerging Markets Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","BK0117":"地热能","002865":"钧达股份","LU2153591404.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Asian Sustainable Development Equity A Acc USD","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0139":"涉矿","BK0015":"沪股通50","BK0077":"质押式回购","BK0187":"一线龙头","BK0028":"国家队","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","BK0044":"CDM项目","BK0054":"太阳能发电","BK0201":"可转债"},"translate_title":"\"Space photovoltaics\" detonated the daily limit tide, and the concept hype could not hide the weak supply and demand of the industry","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600438":1,"600481":1,"601012":1,"688223":1,"688303":1,"688599":1,"002129":1,"002459":1,"002865":1},"content_text":"短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。\n　　近日，A股光伏板块全线爆发，多只个股上演20%涨停潮，连城数控（920368.BJ）、欧普泰（920414.BJ）更是录得“30cm”涨停，港股市场太阳能概念股亦同步共振。引爆行情的是美国富豪马斯克在达沃斯论坛上对太空光伏的最新力挺，其为低迷已久的光伏板块注入了强烈的题材预期。\n　　然而，掀开概念炒作的表层，光伏行业面临的却是连续两年半的普遍亏损、产能阶段性过剩与产品价格持续承压的“弱现实”。第一财经记者根据已披露的2025年业绩预告统计发现，包括通威股份（600438.SH）、晶科能源（688223.SH）、天合光能（688599.SH）、晶澳科技（002459.SZ）、TCL中环（002129.SZ）、钧达股份（002865.SZ）在内的多家光伏制造巨头，预计2025年净利润亏损幅度进一步加剧，预亏金额在40亿元到100亿元区间。\n　　仅少数光伏企业如大全能源（688303.SH）、隆基绿能（601012.SH）、双良节能（600481.SH）等同比实现减亏。在强预期炒作与弱现实基本面的显著背离下，行业资产负债表持续承压，结构性修复迫在眉睫。\n　　基本面承压与股价爆炒形成鲜明背离\n　　资本市场炒作太空光伏概念一片欢腾，与光伏企业2025年业绩预告大面积且深度亏损的情形形成鲜明对比。根据统计，在已发布预告的32家光伏上市公司中，23家预计出现亏损（包括续亏、首亏），占比逾七成。\n　　光伏主产业链（硅料、组件、电池、硅片）的亏损明显加剧，主要由于各环节低迷的终端需求、产能阶段性过剩、产品价格上行受阻等多重因素。\n　　在净利润预亏金额同比扩大的名单中，一体化龙头通威股份预计2025年净利润亏损区间达90亿元至100亿元，上年同期亏损70.39亿元，它也是目前唯一一家预亏金额上限达到百亿规模的光伏企业。\n　　亏损规模激增的光伏制造商还有天合光能、钧达股份，预亏上限均较上年同期扩大100%及以上。天合光能预计亏损65亿元至75亿元，上年同期亏损34.43亿元，该公司表示组件价格承压，叠加硅料、银浆等关键原材料涨价，使得组件业务盈利能力下滑，同时计提资产减值准备也对业绩有一定影响。\n　　同为组件环节的晶科能源预计业绩首亏，亏损约59亿元至69亿元。对于业绩亏损的原因，晶科能源也提到了2025年光伏组件价格整体处于低位，以及计提资产减值准备对业绩的影响。\n　　另外，硅片制造商TCL中环预计亏损82亿元至96亿元；晶澳科技预计亏损45亿元至48亿元。这些公司亏损额虽然与上年基本持平，但动辄数十亿元的预亏数额，反映出在主产业链价格战激烈、产能过剩的背景下，头部企业难以独善其身，盈利能力急剧恶化。\n　　多数公司亏损呈扩大趋势之际，大全能源、隆基绿能、双良节能3家光伏主产业链企业实现减亏。受益于去年下半年硅料价格止跌反弹，大全能源实现第四季度扭亏，但由于上半年净利润大幅亏损，全年业绩仍然承压，预计亏损14.18亿元至17.18亿元，亏损幅度同比收窄52.17%到63.21%。\n　　隆基绿能2024年亏损86.18亿元，该公司预计2025年亏损60亿元至65亿元，至少减亏约21亿元。硅片制造商双良节能预计2025年业绩大幅减亏，公司预计归母净亏损7.8亿至10.6亿元，去年同期为亏损21.34亿元，亏损规模相对较小的主要原因是硅片业务具备成本竞争优势并且整体产能不大。\n　　产业基本面供需双弱\n　　业内人士普遍认为，太空光伏的发展路径存在较高不确定性，短中期内尚难以形成规模化商业应用，无法消化地面光伏当前的过剩产能。行业走出低谷的关键，仍在于实实在在的供给侧出清、供需再平衡与资产负债表修复。\n　　喧嚣的概念炒作过后，光伏行业仍需直面严峻的现实挑战：供需双弱。供给方面，产能过剩导致价格低迷是亏损主因。\n　　过去几年光伏制造端产能急速扩张，遭遇了全球需求增速放缓、贸易壁垒增多的环境，导致供需严重失衡。硅料、硅片、电池、组件等各环节价格已跌破众多企业的现金成本线，这是行业普遍出现巨额经营性亏损的直接原因。尽管近期部分环节价格出现止跌迹象，但在库存高企、新产能持续释放的背景下，价格上行阻力巨大。\n　　导致价格低迷的另一项原因需求低迷，上游环节硅料市场当前的供需端陷入观望僵局，反映光伏终端需求暂未出现实质性回暖。\n　　中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会近日发文指出，硅料市场观望态势未改，主要缘于两方面因素：其一，尽管光伏产品出口退税等政策对中长期需求形成预期支撑，但部分需求已在2025年提前预支，导致下游硅片企业开工率提升意愿不足；其二，白银价格持续飙升大幅推高电池片及组件生产成本，硅料报价的小幅下调对下游成本下降影响有限。\n　　除了上述因素以外，光伏行业还面临上游原材料价格快速上涨的压力。去年四季度以来，银价快速攀升，期货与现货的当年涨幅超过黄金。进入2026年以来，银价的上涨可谓疯狂，截至目前，COMEX白银期货报每盎司103.26美元，1月以来已经上涨46.25%，去年10月以来累计涨逾118%。\n　　银浆是当前光伏产业技术路径的关键原材料，直接影响电池光电转换效率与组件输出功率。作为电池非硅成本最大环节，其占比超50%，为降本的关键。银浆成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本，使得企业经营进一步承压。\n　　受制于产品价格持续低迷和成本压力，头部企业正在推动各种浆料降本路径，主流趋势是以铜、铝等金属取代银，包括银包铜浆、电镀铜、铜浆，其中银包铜浆凭借相对成熟的技术，实现HJT（异质结）电池批量导入，但目前尚看不到这项技术迭代对上市公司盈利能力的显著影响。\n　　连续两年半的行业性亏损，已大量侵蚀光伏企业的净资产和现金储备，部分企业在去年三季度末时就已经面临较大的偿债与融资压力。未来的行业复苏，必然伴随以产能利用率提升、落后产能出清、企业兼并重组为特征的供给侧结构性改革，只有当供需回归健康水平，产品价格修复至合理区间，企业盈利能力才能根本性改善。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘万里 SF014","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2606254689","isCrawlerRequest":true}