“超级周期”已至！存储短缺或至少持续两到三年

科创日报01-27

文|刘蕊随着人工智能基础设施建设轰轰烈烈，人们越来越感受到，存储芯片供应紧张状况可能会比预期持续更长时间。那么，这一供应短缺情况究竟会持续多久？多位半导体行业资深人士作出了相似的判断：很可能还会至少持续两到三年。内存短缺或延续至明年近年来，随着巨额资金继续投入到数据中心基础设施建设中，市场对内存芯片的需求也达到了前所未有的水平，半导体的价格也因此出现了前所未有的上涨，这种上涨趋势今年还将持续。全球...

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Storage shortage or lasting at least two to three years","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SMH":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SNPS":0.9},"content_text":"文|刘蕊随着人工智能基础设施建设轰轰烈烈，人们越来越感受到，存储芯片供应紧张状况可能会比预期持续更长时间。那么，这一供应短缺情况究竟会持续多久？多位半导体行业资深人士作出了相似的判断：很可能还会至少持续两到三年。内存短缺或延续至明年近年来，随着巨额资金继续投入到数据中心基础设施建设中，市场对内存芯片的需求也达到了前所未有的水平，半导体的价格也因此出现了前所未有的上涨，这种上涨趋势今年还将持续。全球EDA和半导体IP领域的龙头企业新思科技（ Synopsys） 的首席执行官萨西尼·加齐（Sassine Ghazi）在接受采访时表示，芯片“短缺”现象将在2026年和2027年持续下去。加齐表示，目前，全球顶尖厂商的大部分内存芯片“直接流向了人工智能基础设施，但许多其他产品也需要内存，所以如今这些其他市场因产能不足而陷入困境。”他指出，三星、SK 海力士和美光作为全球最大的内存公司，虽然正致力于扩大生产，但要实现扩产目标，需要“至少”两年的时间，这也是此次短缺将持续下去的原因之一。“现在对于内存公司来说是一个黄金时期，”加齐说道。他还补充称，内存价格的上涨意味着消费电子公司可能不得不考虑提价，而这一趋势目前“已经在发生”。我们正处于“超级周期”通常来说，内存价格会经历供应短缺或供应过剩的周期，这种周期决定了这些组件的价格。然而，越来越多行业人士和分析师感受到，当前的内存正处于“超级周期”——换言之，供应短缺的情况将持续比过去更长的时间，内存的涨价潮将会比过去持续更久、范围更大。事实上，美光科技在去年底发布2026财年第一季度业绩报告时就曾做出过这样的预测。美光表示，持续的行业需求加上供应限制，导致存储市场供应紧张，预计这种情况将持续到2026年以后。这意味着市场上行周期至少会持续三年，甚至可能更久。推动这一趋势的主要因素是HBM芯片的强劲需求。美光预测，到2028年，HBM总潜在市场将以约40%的复合年增长率增长，从2025年的约350亿美元增长到2028年的约1000亿美元。而与此同时，NAND的需求往往会跟随HBM上涨，这表明当前的存储上升周期可能会从2024年持续到2028年。布鲁姆斯伯里情报与安全研究所（The Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute）则指出：“全球内存市场正经历一场结构性危机，其原因是制造商将晶圆产能从DRAM重新分配到用于HBM芯片上。因此，DRAM价格同比上涨了171%，而DDR5现货价格自2025年9月以来已经翻了两番。”这种情况会持续多久？存储器价格可能在2027-2028年期间保持高位，只有当新的制造设施实现量产时，价格才有可能部分恢复正常；如果随着产能的扩张，人工智能需求放缓，那么可能到2028-2029年才会出现供应过剩的情况。行业分析公司IDC也强调了半导体“超级周期”已经到来。他们表示：“在经历了2023年的调整和2024年的复苏之后，2024年至2028年的长期半导体收入增长仍有望实现两位数的复合年增长率。”华尔街投行做出类似预测在华尔街，高盛和野村等投资机构也已经也做出类似判断。高盛在近期的调查报告中指出，自新年伊始，DDR5现货价格已出现大幅上涨，而 DDR4现货价格自2024年9月开始上涨，目前仍呈上升趋势。这意味着DRAM合约价格近期上涨动力强劲，原因是DDR5/DDR4 现货价格已经相较于合约价格产生了巨大溢价。高盛还预测，全球存储巨头三星今年的DRAM芯片平均定价将会每个季度环比增长，尤其是一季度增幅预计可达50%。高盛：三星今年DRAM芯片定价预计持续增长而野村在近期的报告中指出，全球存储器市场正在经历前所未有的“三重超级周期”，预计在2026年，DRAM、NAND和HBM的需求将同时激增。野村还判断称，在强劲的需求增长和有限的供应扩张影响下，这一超级周期将持续到2027年。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2606248730","isCrawlerRequest":true}