德银大宗商品展望：结构性牛市下，黄金6000美元是“合理区间”，白银行情难以长期脱离黄金

华尔街见闻01-27

全球地缘政治动荡常态化与政府债务增长预期带来黄金的牛市，白银虽然短期可能受益于投资热情、中国、印度的资金流入继续上涨，但预计金银比终将回归将限制白银对黄金的长期涨幅。据追风交易台，德意志银行在1月26日发布的2026年大宗商品展望报告中提到，全球地缘政治动荡常态化与政府债务增长将持续支撑贵金属价格。在美元走弱背景下，供需的结构性失衡将大概率在今年推升黄金涨至6000美元/盎司。且报告提及，任何...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764230><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球地缘政治动荡常态化与政府债务增长预期带来黄金的牛市，白银虽然短期可能受益于投资热情、中国、印度的资金流入继续上涨，但预计金银比终将回归将限制白银对黄金的长期涨幅。据追风交易台，德意志银行在1月26日发布的2026年大宗商品展望报告中提到，全球地缘政治动荡常态化与政府债务增长将持续支撑贵金属价格。在美元走弱背景下，供需的结构性失衡将大概率在今年推升黄金涨至6000美元/盎司。且报告提及，任何...</p>\n\n<a 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29%。价格上涨迫使工业界寻求替代方案（节约用银），但这是一个缓慢的过程。即便考虑到再生银供应可能增加（预计2026年可能达到350-450吨），也难以完全抵消投资需求的激增。长期来看，金银比终将回归。德银报告显示，自1986年以来金银比出现5次大幅下降（与美国衰退相关）和4次大幅上升，每次极端偏离后都会均值回归，不会趋势逆转。报告预计，金银比可能短期内进一步向2011年的32倍靠拢（相当于金价5000美元时银价156美元），但最终将在2027年回归至65的水平，对应银价约95美元/盎司。风险提示与投资启示德银报告指出，黄金市场的主要风险在于持仓可能已经非常重但不可见。三个月隐含波动率的上升表明，市场预期一周实际波动率将升向2025年的峰值水平，2025年曾多次出现10%的短期回调。不过德银认为这种调整应被视为战术性买入机会。对于白银，报告提醒投资者关注两个信号：借贷利率变化和黄金价格走势。当前仍然高企的借贷利率和德银对黄金的看涨观点，支持白银在年内短期继续上涨的判断，但若这两个因素出现转向，银价可能面临显著回调风险。总体而言，德银报告结论为：黄金的结构性牛市基础更为稳固，6000美元目标价具备合理性；白银虽然短期可能继续受益于投资热情，但金银比的最终回归将限制其相对黄金的长期涨幅。对于配置型投资者，黄金提供了更可持续的价值储藏功能；对于交易型投资者，则需密切关注金银比的技术指标和工业需求变化。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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