华泰期货：苹果依赖节前走货，红枣旺季支撑消费

市场资讯01-28

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　来源：华泰期货　　作者：白旭宇　　苹果观点　　市场要闻与重要数据　　期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9504元/吨，较前一日变动+38元/吨，幅度+0.40%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1504，较前一日变动-38；陕西洛川70#...

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season","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601688":1.61,"MACW.SI":0.6,"06886":1.61},"content_text":"热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　来源：华泰期货\n　　作者： 白旭宇\n　　苹果观点\n　　市场要闻与重要数据\n　　期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9504元/吨，较前一日变动+38元/吨，幅度+0.40%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1504，较前一日变动-38；陕西洛川70# 以上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1104，较前一日变动-38。\n　　近期市场资讯，产区整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农货成交量仍显有限，目前行情整体维持稳中偏弱，部分果农急售情绪加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒开始零星包装，少量75#货源、三级货源出库为主，交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元/斤，果农一般通货出库价格3.7-5元/斤不等。产区客商包装发货积极性提高，果农货统货成交仍显缓慢，部分果农急售情绪加剧，让价心理显现。目前销区市场中转库积压严重，受竞品水果影响明显，苹果走货不快。本周进入春节备货的重要节点，重点关注批发市场走货情况及产区出库进度。\n　　市场分析\n　　昨日苹果期价窄幅震荡，当前苹果市场供需格局表现为供应端存在支撑，而需求端延续偏缓态势。产区出货主要依赖节前备货带动，但局部地区销售仍显迟滞，果农让价出货意愿增强，通过调低价格促进走货；西部产区客商采购多以消化自有库存为主，受优质果占比下降影响，一般品质及次级果价格总体保持平稳偏弱走势。上周全国主产区陆续进入春节备货阶段，整体交易较前期略有好转，但备货氛围偏淡，行情呈现分化特征，周内山东、山西产区去库速度加快，但整体成交仍然清淡，甘肃产区交易相对活跃，客商包装发货稳定，当地果农货走货已过半，好货基本完成货权转移。各产区均以客商发自存货源为主，果农货成交有限，仅低价货源略有走货。销区表现疲软，整体走货缓慢，中转库积压严重，呈现“产区热、销区冷”的格局，广东搓龙市场到货量有所增加，但日内消费能力不足，批发商坚持按需拿货，洛川及静宁优质货源凭借品质支撑尚有一定走货量，同时受车厘子、柑橘等低价替代品冲击明显，客源稀少，消费者对苹果价格敏感度上升，高价优质果品消化压力突出，下游拿货积极性普遍不高。受春节延后影响，备货周期整体后移，预计产区包装发运或进一步好转，但需求端疲软仍是核心压制因素，若备货旺季效应持续缺位，节后库存消化压力将进一步凸显。后续需持续跟踪终端消费复苏情况、备货进度及替代品市场动态。\n　　策略\n　　中性。\n　　风险\n　　春节节日备货进度、产区天气影响、替代水果交易情况\n　　红枣观点\n　　市场要闻与重要数据\n　　期货方面，昨日收盘红枣2605合约8820元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.68%。现货方面，河北一级灰枣现货价格8.00元/公斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差CJ05-820，较前一日变动-60。\n　　近期市场资讯， 2025产季新疆灰枣收购区间价格参考5.00-6.50元/公斤，其中阿克苏地区通货主流价格参考5.00-5.30元/公斤，阿拉尔地区通货主流价格参考5.20-5.80元/公斤，喀什团场成交价格参考6.20-6.40元/公斤，麦盖提地区价格参考6.00-6.30元/公斤，产区原料收购以质论价，维持优质优价原则。1月26日，河北崔尔庄市场停车区到货近10车，以等外为主，已至腊八，后续备货力度可能减弱，当前本地加工厂以自有货源加工出货为主，持货商亦积极出货。由于年前备货时间有限，下游采购多以少量多次的方式进行。 广东如意坊市场到货车6车，以河北到货为主，参考特级10.00元/公斤，一级8.80元/公斤，早市成交一般。据客商反馈物流将在腊月十五-腊月二十三陆续停运，年前可供购销时间有限，预计短期内价格暂稳运行。\n　　市场分析\n　　红枣期价昨日小幅拉升后窄幅震荡，当前红枣市场已进入传统的春节前备货高峰期。受秋冬季节性消费旺季支撑，叠加今年春节时间较晚、销售周期拉长，下游集散市场到货量持续增加，成交量较新枣上市初期明显提升。目前下游渠道普遍采取“随买随卖”的低库存策略，距离全国物流停运仅剩十余天，后续走势仍需关注节前备货的推进情况。当前产区方面，新疆灰枣收购工作已基本收尾，枣树进入休眠期，市场关注重心转向下游消费，随着原料采收，各个产区产量逐渐清晰，内地加工厂陆续停工，部分企业因出货承压、成品积压被迫停工，行业出现主动去产能。销区市场已进入春节备货阶段，但呈现旺季不旺特征，成交整体偏淡，贸易商备货意愿不强，多按需拿货，整体走货以周边小订单补货为主，去库速度放缓，等外品成交相对尚可。当前红枣结转库存高、新旧季货量充裕的供应压力，以及消费端需求疲软、市场情绪偏悲观的影响，后续需密切关注销区走货节奏、采购商心态变化及产区天气异常情况。\n　　策略\n　　中性。\n　　风险\n　　新旧库存供应压力、销区走货速度、节前备货氛围\n　　投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号\n　　免责声明：\n　　本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者并不能依靠本报告以取代 行使独立判断。对投资者依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为 “华泰期货研究院”，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权利。 所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 华泰期货有限公司版权所有并保留一切权利。\n\n期货开户选华泰，专业可信赖\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：朱赫楠","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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