“寻芯记”“国产GPU四小龙”即将齐聚二级市场不同路线下谁的“稀缺性”更有含金量

华夏时报网01-24

前有英伟达，后有寒武纪，一个问鼎全球市值之巅，一个一度坐上A股“股王”宝座，AI芯片理所当然地成为资本市场的“兵家必争之地”，赛道也愈发拥挤。短短一个多月内，摩尔线程、沐曦股份与壁仞科技已相继登陆二级市场，1月22日晚间，燧原科技也发起冲刺。　　然而，作为“国产GPU四小龙”中最后一家叩响资本市场大门的公司，燧原科技所面临的局面已悄然改变：市场的“稀缺性溢价”正在消退。当故事的热度逐渐让位于数据的...

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Which \"scarcity\" is more valuable under different routes?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDX":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDD":0.6},"content_text":"前有英伟达，后有寒武纪，一个问鼎全球市值之巅，一个一度坐上A股“股王”宝座，AI芯片理所当然地成为资本市场的“兵家必争之地”，赛道也愈发拥挤。短短一个多月内，摩尔线程、沐曦股份与壁仞科技已相继登陆二级市场，1月22日晚间，燧原科技也发起冲刺。　　然而，作为“国产GPU四小龙”中最后一家叩响资本市场大门的公司，燧原科技所面临的局面已悄然改变：市场的“稀缺性溢价”正在消退。当故事的热度逐渐让位于数据的冷峻，燧原科技上市后的估值表现，无疑将面临市场更为审慎的检验。　　值得一提的是，与其他三家不同，燧原科技并未沿袭英伟达确立的GPGPU主流路径，而是选择了与之差异化的非GPGPU技术路线。在人工智能产业持续演进、技术范式不断更迭的当下，哪一种技术路线更具持久竞争力与产业生命力呢？　　估值走向　　不可否认，在“国产GPU四小龙”中，燧原科技的收入和市场份额还是比较占优势的。　　从营收体量来看，以2024年为例，燧原科技以7.22亿元的营收在“国产GPU四小龙”中排在第二位，沐曦股份以7.43亿元的营收排在第一位，摩尔线程和壁仞科技分别以4.38亿元和3.37亿元排在第三和第四位。　　在2024年的中国AI加速器市场，根据IDC和公开披露资料，英伟达的市场份额约为70%，寒武纪和燧原科技分别约为1.4%，沐曦股份、摩尔线程和壁仞科技都小于1%，AMD和天数智芯同样小于1%。　　然而，从上市时间来看，燧原科技毫无疑问已经落后于“国产GPU四小龙”其他三家，因此该公司上市后的估值面临更大的不确定性。上市首日，摩尔线程、沐曦股份和壁仞科技的股价涨幅分别为425.46%（科创板）、692.95%（科创板）和75.82%（港股），截至1月23日收盘，这几家的市值分别为2907亿元、2350亿元和857.82亿港元。　　文渊智库创始人王超对《华夏时报》记者表示，单纯从资本市场层面观察，当前A股市场尤其是科创板，为GPU等硬科技概念提供了热土，一方面有政策支持，另一方面，相较于港股，科创板汇聚了国内充裕的散户资金、政府投资基金及产业资本，因此燧原科技整体市场表现的基本盘是稳固的。　　同时，王超也指出，硬币的另一面是“稀缺性”的稀释。“随着‘国产GPU四小龙’中其余三家先行上市，市场对同类题材的第一轮集中炒作与资金追捧已阶段性完成。作为后来者，燧原科技尽管能继续受益于行业整体的高景气度，但在具体的资金维度上，其所能吸引的边际关注与增量资金势必会受到影响，这意味着，其上市初期的股价涨幅与市场热度，有可能难以复制前几家公司所达到的峰值水平。”　　其实不单是后来者，即便是摩尔线程、沐曦股份和壁仞科技，本报记者注意到，资本对它们最初的热情也已经慢慢褪去一些：摩尔线程上市后数日内股价最高涨至941.08元/股（发行价为114.28元/股），市值一度突破4000亿元，之后市场情绪趋于平静，该公司股价逐渐回调，截至1月23日收盘股价为618.53元/股；沐曦股份在上市第二日就出现回调，之后股价还没有再达到上市首日的高度；壁仞科技同样在上市首日创造了迄今以来最高股价，之后还未再上去过。　　技术路线　　当然，除了市场层面的考虑，对于燧原科技估值的预期，还应结合其业务本身。　　从技术路线来看，燧原科技与其他三家相比有其独特性，该公司选择的是非GPGPU方向，而另外三家选择的是GPGPU方向。目前，AI芯片的主流架构分为以英伟达为首的GPGPU架构和包含谷歌TPU、华为NPU等架构的非GPGPU架构。　　InSemi Research高级分析师秦丰伟介绍道，GPGPU在基座大模型训练、通用性要求更高的场景（如公有云）、并行计算场景会更有竞争力，而非GPGPU在模型部署阶段、在推理场景下相对更有优势，因为这些场景对能效比、响应延迟等方面要求更高，且推理业务的英伟达CUDA护城河没有那么深。　　当然，这不影响他们互为竞争对手的关系，好比川菜与湘菜，虽不是一个菜系，但对于消费者来说都是食物，起到的都是填饱肚子的功能。至于如何看待与国内其他AI芯片厂商之间的竞争关系，《华夏时报》记者采访了燧原科技方面，对方只表示以公告内容为准。　　秦丰伟对《华夏时报》记者表示，GPGPU和非GPGPU未来一定是并存的，但全球GPGPU份额下降是必然趋势。“一方面，原来英伟达的垄断实在太强了，未来这家公司是从‘绝对垄断’变为‘没那么垄断’，并不是说GPGPU不行了；另一方面，未来推理业务需求是大头，其中有很大一部分来自头部互联网企业，很多业务场景是比较确定的，这时候用非GPGPU可以做针对性优化，因此有发挥空间。”　　燧原科技招股书显示，基于高盛全球投资研究部的模型预测，在AI服务器的AI芯片中非GPGPU芯片的出货占比将呈现明确上升趋势，预计将从2024年的36%逐步增长至2027年的45%，而GPGPU芯片的出货占比预计将从2024年的64%逐步下降至2027年的55%。　　智参智库特聘专家袁博则认为，短期内，GPGPU凭借强大的场景适应性和生态壁垒主导市场，特别是在AI训练场景，长远来看，两条路线并非完全对立，而将走向融合与市场分层。“硬件上，GPGPU会集成更强的专用核心，而专用芯片也会增加可编程性。市场上，预计将形成其主导创新与通用平台、专用芯片深耕规模化推理的分层格局。然而，最大的挑战依然是生态问题，能否围绕核心客户构建起有生命力的软件栈与开发生态，从而证明其领域优势足以超越通用平台的便利性，应是燧原科技的目标。”（文章来源：华夏时报网）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2605928060","isCrawlerRequest":true}

“寻芯记”“国产GPU四小龙”即将齐聚二级市场 不同路线下谁的“稀缺性”更有含金量

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“寻芯记”“国产GPU四小龙”即将齐聚二级市场不同路线下谁的“稀缺性”更有含金量