直击达沃斯｜微软CEO纳德拉：AI时代的核心不是“单一模型”，而是“模型编排与算力工厂”

睿见Economy01-21

专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯　　新浪财经康路发自瑞士达沃斯　　2026年1月20日，世界经济论坛期间，微软 CEO Satya Nadella 在参加“美国之家”活动时表示，在 AI 时代，真正的战略重心不在于是否拥有单一“基础模型”，而在于算力基础设施、模型编排能力以及企业知识的深度嵌入。　　纳德拉指出，微软当前最核心的 AI 战略之一，是将 Azure 打造成大规模的...

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VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)"},"translate_title":"Direct attack to Davos | Microsoft CEO Nadella: The core of the AI era is not a \"single model\", but a \"model orchestration and computing power factory\"","themeId":"0692c5a6fd55a2569cad0359c7feac81","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.98},"content_text":"专题：世界经济论坛年会_2026冬季达沃斯\n　　新浪财经 康路 发自瑞士达沃斯\n　　2026年1月20日，世界经济论坛期间，微软 CEO Satya Nadella 在参加“美国之家”活动时表示，在 AI 时代，真正的战略重心不在于是否拥有单一“基础模型”，而在于算力基础设施、模型编排能力以及企业知识的深度嵌入。\n\n　　纳德拉指出，微软当前最核心的 AI 战略之一，是将 Azure 打造成大规模的“Token 工厂”。随着 AI 应用全面铺开，算力需求呈指数级增长，云服务商必须具备建设异构基础设施集群、并通过软件提升利用率和降低总体拥有成本的能力。\n　　在模型层面，纳德拉明确表示，未来的 AI 应用不会依赖单一模型。“任何企业都会同时使用多个模型，甚至针对同一任务编排多个模型协同完成。”他透露，微软在医疗领域推出的“决策编排（Decision Orchestra）”实践表明，多角色模型协作的效果优于任何单一前沿模型。\n　　对于开源与闭源模型之争，纳德拉将其类比为数据库市场的演进。他认为，未来模型生态将高度多样化，既有闭源前沿模型，也会出现达到前沿水平的开源模型。真正的竞争力，在于企业能否将自身的隐性知识嵌入到自己可控的模型权重中。\n　　“如果你问我未来会有多少模型，我的答案是：和世界上公司数量一样多。”纳德拉说，“这正是知识经济向 AI 经济转变的方式。”\n　　在终端侧，纳德拉确认，微软已经拥有可在 Windows 桌面本地运行的模型，充分利用 NPU 与 GPU 资源。他认为，高性能工作站正在回归，而桌面计算形态将在 AI 时代重新获得战略价值。\n　　部分对谈内容：\n　　问： 商业软件是否错过了“移动互联网时刻”？为什么没有属于自己的基础模型？\n　　纳德拉：当人们问“你们的基础模型在哪里”时，我的回答是：从知识产权的角度看，我们是拥有核心 IP 的。但更重要的是战略选择。对微软而言，今天最核心的战略并不是只做一个模型。\n　　问： 那微软当前最核心的 AI 战略是什么？\n　　纳德拉：第一，是构建“Token 工厂”。Azure 已经是我们最大的业务，而未来 AI 带来的算力需求规模巨大，这要求我们极其擅长建设本地化的“算力工厂”。这意味着一个高度异构的基础设施集群，并通过软件最大化利用率、降低总体拥有成本（TCO）——这正是所有超大规模云服务商一直在做的事。\n　　第二，是应用服务层（App Service）。如果所有人都在构建 AI Agent、强化学习环境、评测系统，那么就必然需要一个“应用服务器层”。这正是我们在 Foundry 所做的事情。\n　　问： 你是否认为未来不会只使用单一模型？\n　　纳德拉：是的。任何应用、任何企业，都会使用多个模型，而不是一个模型。针对不同任务，甚至会编排多个模型协同完成。\n　　我们在医疗业务中推出了一个叫“Decision Orchestra（决策编排）”的实践：通过为模型分配不同角色（调查者、数据分析师、领域专家），并进行编排，效果显著优于任何单一前沿模型。\n　　问： 这是否意味着你看好开源模型，认为大模型本身并非价值最终沉淀之处？\n　　纳德拉：我认为这与数据库市场的演变非常相似。过去我们以为“一切都是 SQL”，但后来出现了 NoSQL、图数据库、文档数据库……数据库市场反而变得极其丰富。\n　　模型市场也会如此：会有闭源的前沿模型，也会有达到前沿水准的开源模型\n　　真正的关键在于：企业能否把自身的隐性知识，嵌入到自己可控的模型权重中。\n　　问： 那未来会有多少模型？\n　　纳德拉：我的极端答案是：世界上有多少家公司，就应该有多少个模型。\n　　因为这正是知识经济向 AI 经济转化的方式。\n　　问： 微软是否在秘密打造运行在 Windows 桌面的本地大模型？\n　　纳德拉：其实并不秘密。我们已经有完全驻留在本地、利用 NPU 和 GPU 运行的模型。事实上，工作站正在回归——这是一个非常有意思的变化。高性能桌面计算正在重新成为重要形态，而微软在桌面生态上具有天然优势。\n　　新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：李昂","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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