寻找中国保险的ALPHA系列之四：从保单到数据：新能源车险的价值跃迁

国信证券01-22

产业周期看财险：我国新能源车险已步入“量价齐升”的黄金发展期。在“双碳”目标的国家战略指引与延续性的购置税减免等政策激励下，我国新能源汽车市场渗透率持续快速提升。2024 年，我国新能源汽车销量占总新车销量的比例已高达40.9%，零售渗透率逼近50%，其销量增速显著超越传统燃油车，这为车险保费增长提供了坚实的原生动力。与此同时，“高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）”渗透率超过50%以及“基于使用行为的...

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亿元的数据，直观显示出传统车险模式与新能源汽车结构性特征之间的深刻错配。行业盈利模型亟待重构，风险减量、生态融合、标准出海三大核心方向构建竞争壁垒，龙头效应凸显。一是近年来以头部“老三家”为代表的险企大力发展风险减量服务的风险管理体系，赋能业务发展，优化风控水平。平安产险通过此类技术累计实现减损超百亿元；人保财险则通过“万象云”平台提供动态风险画像与预警，推动风控从“事后理赔”转向“事前预防”。二是与主机厂的生态融合，以破解数据孤岛与维修成本难题。车企通过设立或收购保险机构深度介入，而险企则与主机厂在数据共享、维修网络共建等方面开展战略合作，关系从零和博弈转向共生共赢。最后，跟随中国汽车产业链出海，开辟第二增长曲线。以人保财险依托安盛网络为比亚迪欧洲车主提供本地化服务为典型，中国险企正以“前端合作、中台赋能、后台再保”的模式，伴随国产新能源汽车的全球扩张，将国内积累的数据与风控能力向海外市场输出。投资建议：新能源车险赛道正从初期粗放增长迈向以科技与生态为核心的高质量竞争阶段。尽管短期盈利承压，但其长期增长空间与战略价值明确。我们认为应重点关注相应企业在数据科技领域投入领先、与头部新能源主机厂绑定深入、以及在国际化布局上具备先发优势和清晰路径的头部保险机构。以“老三家”为代表的险企更有可能将当前的规模与场景优势，转化为长期的风险定价与成本管控能力，从而穿越周期，分享行业结构性变革带来的超额成长。我们建议关注车险业务结构性重构基于下头部财险公司的投资机遇，建议关注中国财险、中国平安、中国太保。风险提示：新能源车险维修成本较高；COR 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