餐饮：饮品韧性凸显部分正餐边际改善

中国国际金融股...01-23

行业近况25 年品牌分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品好于预期，部分正餐边际改善。看好现制饮品头部品牌维持好于行业的同店和开店表现，关注部分品牌调改效果和新品牌潜力。评论分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品表现好于预期，部分正餐迎来边际改善。我们估计4Q25 沪上/古茗/茶百道/瑞幸/奈雪同店收入分别同比增长超20%/接近20%/双位数/10%/3%；锅圈同店同比增速高单位数；海底捞受益于...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2605255423?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-23 00:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2605255423","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"餐饮：饮品韧性凸显 部分正餐边际改善","media":"中国国际金融股...","content":"<div>\n<p>行业近况25 年品牌分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品好于预期，部分正餐边际改善。看好现制饮品头部品牌维持好于行业的同店和开店表现，关注部分品牌调改效果和新品牌潜力。评论分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品表现好于预期，部分正餐迎来边际改善。我们估计4Q25 沪上/古茗/茶百道/瑞幸/奈雪同店收入分别同比增长超20%/接近20%/双位数/10%/3%；锅圈同店同比增速高单位数；海底捞受益于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123113136a44c6d04&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>餐饮：饮品韧性凸显 部分正餐边际改善</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n餐饮：饮品韧性凸显 部分正餐边际改善\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-23 00:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123113136a44c6d04&s=b><strong>中国国际金融股...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>行业近况25 年品牌分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品好于预期，部分正餐边际改善。看好现制饮品头部品牌维持好于行业的同店和开店表现，关注部分品牌调改效果和新品牌潜力。评论分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品表现好于预期，部分正餐迎来边际改善。我们估计4Q25 沪上/古茗/茶百道/瑞幸/奈雪同店收入分别同比增长超20%/接近20%/双位数/10%/3%；锅圈同店同比增速高单位数；海底捞受益于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123113136a44c6d04&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1591","symbol_name":"就地过年概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123113136a44c6d04&s=b","article_id":"2605255423","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260123113136a44c6d04&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2605255423","pubTimestamp":1769097600,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"行业近况25 年品牌分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品好于预期，部分正餐边际改善。古茗计划延展咖啡和早餐时段、举行堂食营销活动和升级六代店型以提振同店和提升堂食销售占比，我们预计26 年同店收入有望同比持平。我们预计古茗25 年门店净增近3500 家，26 年净新增门店数有望维持25 年水平。建议关注部分正餐品牌调改效果及新品牌潜力。1）太二以“鲜活”作为主要调整方向，公司预计1H26 将完成大部分门店调改。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK1591":"就地过年概念","08496":"环球友饮智能","02150":"奈雪的茶","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1589":"北水核心资产","09922":"九毛九","BK1604":"节假日概念","BK1132":"食品零售","BK1233":"餐馆"},"translate_title":"Catering: The toughness of drinks highlights the marginal improvement of some meals","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09922":0.9,"08496":1.5,"02150":0.9},"content_text":"行业近况25 年品牌分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品好于预期，部分正餐边际改善。看好现制饮品头部品牌维持好于行业的同店和开店表现，关注部分品牌调改效果和新品牌潜力。评论分化持续，4Q25 外卖退坡下现制饮品表现好于预期，部分正餐迎来边际改善。我们估计4Q25 沪上/古茗/茶百道/瑞幸/奈雪同店收入分别同比增长超20%/接近20%/双位数/10%/3%；锅圈同店同比增速高单位数；海底捞受益于基数回落及调整举措，翻台同比持平；达势股份一线城市同店同比正增长；太二受益于新店型调改，11 月底开始同店转正、12 月同店同增高单位数，Q4 整体同店跌幅环比收窄6ppt至3%。26 年现制饮品行业同店面临高基数压力，我们看好头部品牌维持领先同店和开店表现。古茗计划延展咖啡和早餐时段、举行堂食营销活动和升级六代店型以提振同店和提升堂食销售占比，我们预计26 年同店收入有望同比持平。我们预计古茗25 年门店净增近3500 家，26 年净新增门店数有望维持25 年水平。此外建议关注茶百道和沪上阿姨等品牌边际改善持续性：茶百道25 年来产品上新机制调整取得一定成效，计划26 年向下拓宽产品价格带并持续优化运营；沪上阿姨指引26 年新开2000-3000 家。建议关注部分正餐品牌调改效果及新品牌潜力。1）太二以“鲜活”作为主要调整方向，公司预计1H26 将完成大部分门店调改（截至25 年底已完成超240 家调改）。我们估计目前新模型同店表现较老模型提升约10ppt，叠加12 月底以来公司启动大规模营销宣传，建议关注同店改善持续性。利润端，我们预计一次性调改费用及额外原材料/人工成本短期或对利润产生拖累，但伴随调改完成及运营优化，利润率有进一步上行空间（公司预计稳态情况下太二餐厅层面OPM约18%）。2）海底捞宣布自2026/1/13 起董事会主席及执行董事张勇担任CEO，我们认为有望进一步提升公司战略执行落地和决策效率，并继续积极推动红石榴计划发展，建议关注举高高自助小火锅（截至11 月底已布局近40 家门店，12 月门店持续新增）、如鮨寿司（目前已实现盈利，平均可达6 轮翻台）、海鲜大排档、外卖等发展情况。估值与建议维持已覆盖标的投资评级、盈利预测和估值不变。风险同店表现不及预期；竞争格局恶化；调改和新模型不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2605255423","isCrawlerRequest":true}

餐饮：饮品韧性凸显 部分正餐边际改善

精彩评论

餐饮：饮品韧性凸显部分正餐边际改善