马斯克达沃斯再画饼：机器人明年卖，AI年底超人类

耕行者01-24

当地时间1月22日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛上再次展现了他的远见卓识，勾勒出一幅涵盖人形机器人、自动驾驶、太空探索和人工智能（AI）的宏大蓝图。他大胆预测AI最快将在今年底超越人类智能，而特斯拉的人形机器人Optimus最早将于明年底面向公众销售。Optimus机器人将于2027年上市销售马斯克对Optimus人形机器人的商业化时间表给出了更具体的说法。他表示，对公众销售将在...

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year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLY":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"CRSH":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"UFO":0.6},"content_text":"当地时间1月22日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛上再次展现了他的远见卓识，勾勒出一幅涵盖人形机器人、自动驾驶、太空探索和人工智能（AI）的宏大蓝图。他大胆预测AI最快将在今年底超越人类智能，而特斯拉的人形机器人Optimus最早将于明年底面向公众销售。Optimus机器人将于2027年上市销售马斯克对Optimus人形机器人的商业化时间表给出了更具体的说法。他表示，对公众销售将在特斯拉确信机器人具备“极高可靠性、极高安全性以及极高功能范围”时启动，届时用户可以“基本要求它做几乎任何你想做的事”。马斯克表示，这将在明年发生。马斯克此前曾预测人形机器人最终将在数量上超过人类，数十亿台机器将不仅部署在工厂，还将进入家庭，协助洗碗到照顾孩子等各类工作。在达沃斯论坛上，他说道：“如果我们拥有几乎免费或完全免费的人工智能和无处不在的机器人，全球经济将会出现爆炸式增长，其规模将前所未有。这对你意味着什么？数十亿由人工智能驱动的机器人数量将超过人类，并满足人类的所有需求。在某个时刻，你将无法想象还能向机器人提出什么要求，因为商品和服务将如此丰富。”特斯拉目前已在工厂中使用部分Optimus机器人执行基础任务。马斯克预测，到2026年底，这些机器人将能够“执行更复杂的任务”。尽管马斯克经常谈论Optimus的潜力，但他此前对生产时间表和目标相对模糊。在2025年1月的财报电话会议上，他曾表示，“非常粗略的猜测”是，特斯拉将在2026年下半年开始向其他公司交付Optimus。本周早些时候，马斯克还提醒称，Optimus和特斯拉最新车型Cybercab的初期生产将“极其缓慢”。自动驾驶和太空探索进展在自动驾驶领域，马斯克宣称这“本质上是一个已解决的问题”。他表示，到2027年，他公司的无人驾驶出租车将在美国“非常普及”。马斯克称，特斯拉的完全自动驾驶软件有时每周更新一次，部分保险公司因其安全记录向使用该技术的客户提供半价保险。特斯拉已在多个城市推出机器人出租车服务，预计今年底将在美国大规模部署，欧洲的有监督完全自动驾驶批准可能在下月获得。在太空探索方面，马斯克表示SpaceX希望今年通过星舰实现火箭的完全可重复使用。他将星舰描述为“有史以来最大的飞行器”，这一突破将使太空进入成本降低100倍，降至每磅100美元以下。SpaceX已展示可以在发射台捕获火箭助推器，但尚未尝试将星舰飞船回收再利用。马斯克还讨论了在未来几年内发射太阳能AI卫星的计划。他指出，太空中的太阳能板效率是地球上的五倍，因为有持续的阳光且无大气干扰。他预测“部署AI成本最低的地方将是太空”，这将在两到三年内实现。AI发展与能源基建预测马斯克对AI发展做出了大胆预测，称AI可能在今年底、或“最迟明年”变得“比任何人类都聪明”。这一预测凸显了他对AI技术快速进步的判断。在能源生产方面，马斯克表示，一个100英里见方的太阳能板区域就能为整个美国供电。他透露，SpaceX和特斯拉的团队正分别致力于在约三年内在美国建立每年100吉瓦的太阳能制造产能。外星人并不存在 人类衰老是一个“非常容易解决的问题”马斯克在论坛上与好友、贝莱德集团首席执行官拉里·芬克展开对话，开场便谈到了自己的价值观，还开了几个关于外星人的玩笑。“我们有 9000 颗卫星在轨运行，但我们从未遇到过需要绕开外星飞船的情况，”马斯克说道，“我们需要假设生命和意识极其罕见，或许只有我们人类存在。”马斯克还表示，他并没有花太多时间研究人类衰老，但他预测终会找到解决方案，“当我们找到衰老的原因时，我们会发现答案显而易见。”市场反应与质疑马斯克讲话期间，特斯拉股价持续走高，周四午盘，日内涨幅扩大到4%以上，收盘时涨超4%，刷新1月5日以来两周多来收盘高位，经过两日连涨，抹平进入2026年以来大多数跌幅。然而，也有一些投资者和业内人士对马斯克的计划持谨慎态度。特斯拉的核心汽车业务因产品线陈旧和美国电动车补贴取消而连续两年交付量下滑，马斯克此次提到的无人驾驶、AI和机器人业务方向被他视为特斯拉的关键重点。马斯克去年9月初表示，特斯拉约80%的价值将来自他四年前首次提出的机器人项目Optimus。但Optimus和特斯拉最新车型Cybercab的初期生产将“极其缓慢”，这也让一些投资者对特斯拉的未来增长前景表示担忧。此外，马斯克对AI的预测也引发了一些争议，一些专家认为AI的发展速度可能不会像马斯克预测的那样快。对于马斯克的计划，你怎么看？欢迎在评论区留言分享你的观点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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