2026 物理AI的六大趋势：新物种大爆发淘汰赛开启

钛媒体01-21

“AI的真正价值将从虚拟内容生成，迈向在物理世界中自主完成复杂任务。”2026年的CES期间，英伟达创始人黄仁勋表示，历经深度学习、生成式AI之后，人工智能的下个浪潮是物理AI——Physical AI。他认为，AI将从虚拟世界走入物理世界，能理解并交互现实环境，在物理世界中自主完成复杂任务。一时之间，物理AI成为了科技界的技术热词。沿循着物理AI的发展逻辑，2026年AI显然将更大程度地，参与到...

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ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC"},"translate_title":"Six major trends in physical AI in 2026: New species explosion, knockout competition begins","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.9,"09988":0.9,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"TSLA":1.9,"09880":0.9,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDA":1.87,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVII":0.6},"content_text":"“AI的真正价值将从虚拟内容生成，迈向在物理世界中自主完成复杂任务。”2026年的CES期间，英伟达创始人黄仁勋表示，历经深度学习、生成式AI之后，人工智能的下个浪潮是物理AI——Physical AI。他认为，AI将从虚拟世界走入物理世界，能理解并交互现实环境，在物理世界中自主完成复杂任务。一时之间，物理AI成为了科技界的技术热词。沿循着物理AI的发展逻辑，2026年AI显然将更大程度地，参与到真实世界的交互中。届时，承载AI的硬件实体将会发生哪些变化？同时，各个垂直场景中的商业竞争，又将会如何发展？结合目前AI的落地进展来看，笔者认为2026年物理AI或将呈现以下六大发展趋势：趋势一：Robotaxi从区域试点走向规模化运营2026年，将成为Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）从区域试点，迈向规模化商业落地的关键一年。一方面，激光雷达等核心硬件成本大幅降低，加上感知算法和算力的提升，让车辆能更可靠地处理复杂路况。另一方面，全球主要市场都在为高级别自动驾驶“松绑”。中国工信部等部门明确支持L3级自动驾驶的生产准入，而美国相关监管机构也为无方向盘的原创设计车辆亮了绿灯，为技术创新提供了空间。其中，特斯拉和百度旗下的萝卜快跑，是中美在该领域竞争中的典型代表。特斯拉的Cybercab车型，定位为L4级全自动驾驶出租车（Robotaxi），无方向盘和踏板，计划于2026年4月量产，目标年产能200万辆。特斯拉计划将Cybercab投入其Robotaxi车队运营，目标是实现每公里0.2美元左右的运营成本，使无人驾驶出租车的费用低于现有网约车。萝卜快跑则是国内最为成熟的Robotaxi平台之一，周订单量突破25万单，且100%为全无人订单，全球总订单量则已超过1700万单。同时，萝卜快跑平均每行驶1014万公里才会出现一次车辆安全气囊弹出事故，未发生过造成人员重大伤亡的交通事故。2026年，萝卜快跑的商业化将从单一城市试点的阶段，走向全球市场。2026年初，萝卜快跑已在迪拜获得首个且唯一的全无人测试许可，并建立海外运营基地，计划在迪拜等地将车队规模扩充至1000辆以上。趋势二：人形机器人出货量翻番，厂商淘汰赛开启根据Omdia发布的数据显示，2025年，智元、宇树科技和优必选位列全球机器人出货量的前三名，分别实现5168台、4200台和1000台的出货量。2026年，随着VLA模型的逐渐成熟，人形机器人的表演能力将会得到进一步加强，带来机器人租赁市场的阶段性繁荣，并推高机器人的整体出货量。智元、宇树科技和优必选的机器人年出货量，有望实现同比翻番，甚至更高。在二级市场上，2026年则会迎来机器人公司的上市潮，目前宇树科技、乐聚机器人、银河通用等都有着明确IPO动作。不过，头部公司在取得出货量攀升和登陆二级市场的同时，不具备闭环进化能力的企业和依然停留在demo验证阶段的企业，将会面临资本市场融资困难的局面，并在这一轮商业化竞争中被市场淘汰。趋势三：AI Agent深度介入真实世界，终端厂商与应用厂商博弈加剧2026年，AI Agent将从简单的“问答机器人”，升级成为“个人智能伙伴”，并与真实世界产生更深的交互。用户不再需要关心具体打开哪个应用，只需直接表达意图。这意味着操作系统从一个应用调度平台，升级为一个任务编排引擎。AI Agent将可以根据简单的指令，完成点餐、打车、订票等一系列复杂的任务。不过，当AI Agent能够自由穿透各个App时，终端厂商就会与希望构建闭环生态的应用厂商产生利益冲突。比如，阿里巴巴正在试图通过千问的AI Agent能力，串联起阿里生态中的高德、淘宝、飞猪等一系列应用服务。这意味着，2026年，终端厂商与应用厂商在用户数据权限上的博弈，将会加剧。如何平衡智能与权限、建立安全标准和审计机制，成为了终端厂商的头等大事。趋势四：可穿戴设备的物种大爆发2026年，可穿戴设备领域将涌现出一批形态新颖、功能专注的“新物种”。它们不再追求功能的大而全，而是通过更深度的AI融合与无感化的佩戴体验，精准切入健康、交互、陪伴等特定场景。目前，最为典型的是光帆科技推出的首款具备视觉感知能力的主动式AI耳机。区别于传统的“被动指令式”AI硬件，光帆科技希望用集成摄像头的AI耳机，实现环境感知，并完成日程管理、机酒预定、打车出行、餐厅推荐等工作生活场景中高频任务的自主处理。此外，新设备极力追求让科技“隐形”。智能戒指通过ECG功能进行心律异常筛查，或监测睡眠呼吸暂停；情绪吊坠本身像一件饰品，通过毫米波雷达等传感器在不接触皮肤的情况下感知情绪变化。2026年，AI不再是一个需要被刻意提及的“功能”，而是像电力一样成为设备的底层支撑趋势五：AI玩具告别话痨，主打共情陪伴能力随着AI多模态交互技术的发展，AI玩具能结合视觉（3D空间建模）和触觉（如柔性电子皮肤）来理解用户的行为意图。同时，低功耗端侧AI芯片的发展使得玩具能够具备本地长时记忆与上下文理解能力，无需依赖云端就能记住用户的偏好和成长节奏，动态调整互动逻辑，响应更快且更隐私安全。情感计算技术的深化，则让AI玩具能通过语调、表情、动作多维度分析情绪，实现“沮丧时安慰、成功时鼓励”的拟人化反应，甚至形成独特的“性格养成”体系。2026年的AI玩具市场中，中国厂商的创新贡献度预计首次突破60%。此外，行业将进入“洗牌期”，缺乏IP、数据和全链路能力的厂商将批量退场。趋势六：清洁电器具身化加速，产品长出更多只“手”一直以来，以扫地机、吸尘器、洗地机等在内清洁电器领域，都处在同质化严重的竞争态势中。直到具身智能的出现，清洁电器开始呈现出差异化。2026年，清洁电器的“具身化”将是行业最核心的趋势，它标志着产品从执行简单指令的自动化工具，向能感知、理解并主动适应环境转变。传统扫地机器人被轮式结构限制在二维平面。而轮足式结构模仿人类步态，让机器人能独立升降“双腿”，实现爬楼梯、跨越门槛等动作，首次突破了家庭环境中的立体空间障碍。另一方面，仿生机械臂的引入则赋予了机器人一双灵活的“手”，使其不仅能避障，还能主动拾取、整理地面杂物，甚至擦拭桌面。同时，清洁电器的服务场景，也将从室内走到户外。在户外，割草机器人通过高精度导航和AI识别技术，实现庭院边缘的自动修剪；机械臂被引入后，让机器人不仅能割草，还能捡拾树枝、玩具，甚至与宠物互动。泳池清洁机器人则借助仿生机械臂，能够主动抓取角落的杂物。当然，这一轮技术变革仍将由中国品牌主导。公开数据显示，在中国，清洁电器市场集中度很高，头部五家厂商的份额合计达到了89.2%。在全球，2025年前三季度，中国品牌包揽了全球扫地机器人出货量前五，合计占据65.7%的市场份额。注：文/饶翔宇，文章来源：钛媒体(公众号ID：taimeiti)，本文为作者独立观点，不代表亿邦动力立场。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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2026 物理AI的六大趋势：新物种大爆发 淘汰赛开启

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2026 物理AI的六大趋势：新物种大爆发淘汰赛开启