市场开始质疑“超预期”逻辑! 美股高估值时代没有强业绩指引=卖事实

智通财经01-21

智通财经APP获悉，1月中旬新一轮美股财报披露季迄今，标普500指数成分公司们已经披露的业绩数据显示，整体实际盈利大幅超出市场一致盈利预期，然而不为所动的投资者们却给出了有记录以来最糟糕的盈利超预期之后的股价反应。在分析师们看来，背后的主要逻辑在于全球投资者们值此开年之际对于2026年的地缘政治以及宏观经济、货币政策与法币财富储存等前景变得愈发扑朔迷离，以及一些公司未在财报披露中公布或者进一步抬高...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1395774.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，1月中旬新一轮美股财报披露季迄今，标普500指数成分公司们已经披露的业绩数据显示，整体实际盈利大幅超出市场一致盈利预期，然而不为所动的投资者们却给出了有记录以来最糟糕的盈利超预期之后的股价反应。在分析师们看来，背后的主要逻辑在于全球投资者们值此开年之际对于2026年的地缘政治以及宏观经济、货币政策与法币财富储存等前景变得愈发扑朔迷离，以及一些公司未在财报披露中公布或者进一步抬高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1395774.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2087625088.SGD","symbol_name":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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(LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"The market began to question the logic of \"exceeding expectations\"! In the era of high valuation of U.S. stocks, there is no strong performance guidance = sell facts","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,".SPX":1.94,"TSM":1.91,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"AI":0.72,"IVV":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SPY":1.94,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"03145":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，1月中旬新一轮美股财报披露季迄今，标普500指数成分公司们已经披露的业绩数据显示，整体实际盈利大幅超出市场一致盈利预期，然而不为所动的投资者们却给出了有记录以来最糟糕的盈利超预期之后的股价反应。在分析师们看来，背后的主要逻辑在于全球投资者们值此开年之际对于2026年的地缘政治以及宏观经济、货币政策与法币财富储存等前景变得愈发扑朔迷离，以及一些公司未在财报披露中公布或者进一步抬高2026年业绩指引展望，导致投资者们逢高抛售，“买在预期，卖在事实”似乎成默认动作。尽管目前仍处于美股财报季的早期阶段——在标普500指数以及纳斯达克100指数中占据高额权重的Mag 7(即七大科技巨头)业绩披露集中于1月底至2月初期，但是市场研究机构Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的最新数据显示，财报季迄今约有81%的标普500指数成分公司的实际利润数据超出第四季度一致利润预期。然而，它们的股价相对基准指数(即标普500指数)平均落后1.1个百分点——这是自2017年以来该数据开始覆盖范围内最差的同期相对表现。在令市场失望的成分股票当中，美国传统工业领军者3M公司(MMM.US)周二股价大幅下跌7%，尽管该公司实际利润超过市场一致预期，但是投资者转而聚焦于其黯淡的预测。华尔街金融巨头道富集团(STT.US)公布业绩以及未来展望后股价单日下跌6.1%，更疲弱的净利息收入前景盖过了远远好于预期的季度业绩。全球流媒体市场领军者奈飞(NFLX.US)也在周三美股盘前交易中一度下跌约6%，主要因其业绩展望令投资者们颇感失望。随着奈飞财报正式公布，意味着美股科技巨头财报季序幕正式拉开，但是奈飞未能给美股科技巨头财报季带来“开门红”。正如上图所显示的那样，在本轮财报季，投资者们对于盈利超预期明显并不买账——一些盈利超过市场预期的股票仍跑输标普500指数。在上图图表中，第四季度业绩数据截至1月20日。数据展示的是在公布业绩当日，超过每股收益(EPS)市场一致预期的股票相对于标普500的相对跑输表现。买在预期，卖在事实？这一趋势凸显出本轮美股财报季之中，市场对于企业盈利的“赌注”有多高，主要因为美国股市在年初便不断攀上历史新高点位。这在华尔街分析师们于财报季开始前调整盈利预期之际，将估值推高至长期历史均值之上。投资者们当前正在关注高管们的评论以及业绩指引线索，以寻找有关AI算力需求/消费者健康状况的线索——这两大主线逻辑分别对应AI算力牛市叙事以及软着陆，对于美股牛市逻辑kw至关重要。鉴于标普500指数当前已经所处的极高估值，需求疲软层面的任何迹象可能都将引发股票大抛售。在这一轮美股财报季，财报“超预期”覆盖面很广，但在标普500指数高估值与利率/政策、关税风险、货币贬值风险再起的宏观背景下，市场真正的门槛变成了“能否上调2026前瞻路径/给出强劲的业绩展望指引”，否则就容易触发逢高兑现抛售式的“卖在业绩事实”。“目前的市场上行门槛不是超过一致预期。门槛是把前瞻路径抬得足够高，以证明在一个仍对利率与财政、货币政策不确定性敏感、且估值已相当昂贵的市场中，这些高估值是合乎逻辑的，”来自WisdomTree的宏观经济研究主管Aneeka Gupta表示。“在这种环境下，没有强劲业绩指引展望的‘超预期’，就会变成‘卖在业绩消息/事实’事件。”随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普再度以威胁对欧洲国家加征新一轮关税引发市场对全球贸易战升温的担忧情绪，投资者们对于屡创历史新高且牛市来到第三年阶段的美股市场也变得更加挑剔。特朗普本人的对于关税以及地缘政治局势的激进言论引发本周全球股市抛售，并使全球经济增长前景、地缘政治前景以及宏观经济、货币政策与法币财富储存等前景再度蒙上阴霾，这也是黄金与白银携手不断创新高且延续2025年牛市轨迹的重要逻辑支撑。此外，如上图显示的那样，华尔街分析师们在业绩公布前夕普遍选择下调美国企业盈利数据预期，这无疑降低了盈利超预期的真实门槛。业绩指引至关重要尽管华尔街的那些资深市场预测人士普遍表示美国企业盈利目前应仍具强大韧性，但投资者们将密切关注管理层最新评论以及业绩指引展望区间，以寻找有关消费者健康状况以及AI算力牛市叙事仍将延续的线索。若出现AI算力需求/消费者需求走弱的任何迹象，可能会遭到负面解读，进而导致大规模抛售，毕竟标普500指数目前约以22倍的前瞻市盈率进行交易，高于10年期均值——即19倍前瞻市盈率。作为对比，台积电可谓提供了本轮财报季的模范业绩——即业绩数据超预期并且业绩指引同样超出市场预期。为何今年以来以闪迪、希捷以及美光为核心的存储芯片板块领涨整个美股?主要因DRAM/NAND存储芯片需求持续强劲且这些存储产品系列(比如DDR4/DDR5/企业级SSD系列)价格呈现野蛮扩张之势，主要因AI算力洪流将存储芯片需求以及存储芯片对于AI训练/推理系统的重要性推向前所未有的高度，当前全球AI算力需求可谓持续呈现出指数级增长趋势，算力供给远远跟不上需求强度，这一点从“全球芯片之王”台积电(TSM.US)周四公布的无比强劲业绩数据中就能明显看出。台积电第四季度毛利率首破60%，净利润大超预期，预计2026年全年营收增速接近30%，并将2026年资本开支指引大幅上调至520-560亿美元，两项核心指引可谓远超市场预期，此外，台积电管理层还将与AI密切相关联的芯片代工业务的营收复合年增长率预期从原先的“40%中段”大幅提升至“50%中高段”。这家全球最大规模芯片制造巨头无比强劲的业绩与未来指引带动周四美股芯片股集体大涨，尤其是存储芯片与半导体设备涨势最为强劲。市场研究机构Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的最新数据显示，本轮美股财报季度，未达业绩预期的公司在公布业绩当日平均跑输标普500指数大约3个百分点。不过在Edmond de Rothschild内部，该机构的私人银行投资业务负责人Nicolas Bickel警告称，由于目前仅有占标普500指数总市值约9%的公司公布了业绩，现在就从股价反应中得出明确结论仍为时过早。“尽管本轮美股财报季开局剧烈波动，但是我们对美国股票市场仍持建设性的积极看法，”Bickel表示。“从现在到财报季结束，基本面可能会取代地缘政治‘噪音’。”花旗集团一项基准指数显示，在第四季度美国企业业绩正式公布前不久，更多华尔街分析师选择小幅下调了盈利预测。尽管这为又一个强劲“超预期”的季度搭好了聚光灯舞台，但也意味着标普500指数的成分公司们必须在销售额与盈利两方面都大幅超出预期，以及给出强劲增长的业绩指引，才能打动对于美股财报季愈发严苛的投资者们，来自摩根士丹利的知名策略师Michael Wilson在一份报告中表示。“不过，本次财报季可能更像是一系列公司层面的特异性的冷门事件，而不太可能成为驱动指数层面的重大因素，”Wilson在一份报告中写道。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2605062501","isCrawlerRequest":true}

市场开始质疑“超预期”逻辑! 美股高估值时代 没有强业绩指引=卖事实

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市场开始质疑“超预期”逻辑! 美股高估值时代没有强业绩指引=卖事实