CPU，产能预警

半导体产业纵横01-23

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间推送不会错过。英特尔、AMD或将服务器CPU价格上调10-15%。根据KeyBanc数据显示，由于超大规模云服务商“扫货”，英特尔与AMD在2026全年的服务器CPU产能已基本售罄。为了应对供需极端失衡并确保后续供应稳定，两家公司均计划将服务器CPU价格上调10-15%。Meta被爆出是这一轮服务器CPU扫货的主力，目的是为其全平台推行的“个性化智能体”提供基础设施...

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AI），对通用计算能力的需求正在加速增长，CPU需求水涨船高，英特尔的传统服务器业务有望“重新回到增长轨道”。其预计，到2026年，服务器芯片的市场需求年增长率将在30%至40%之间；虽然内存芯片供应受限可能会使实际增速预期腰斩，但即便如此，这一水平仍将明显高于华尔街目前预测的4%至6%的年增长率。在半导体产业的传统逻辑中，存储芯片往往具有显著的周期性波动特征，而CPU更常被视为依循技术迭代稳步增长的品类。但在2026年初，这一分野正在模糊：受产能刚性约束与需求回暖的双重影响，CPU正显现出类似存储行业的供需高弹性，定价权开始向卖方倾斜。近两个月来，这已经是第二次传出CPU要涨价的消息。此前在12月1日，OverClock3D确认AMD已通知渠道伙伴将于12月2日0时起上调其处理器产品价格，受影响范围包括最新的锐龙9000系列以及部分旧款处理器。AMD暂未公布提价原因。OC3D表示此次调价与近期有关显卡涨价的传闻无关，也与内存涨价没有直接关系。不过，这一时间节点刚好处于“黑五/网络星期一”大促结束，导致这轮涨价看起来就像“回归正常价位”。此次调整预计将在渠道补货后逐步反映到零售端，使新装机成本面临进一步上涨压力。不同型号的处理器涨幅将有所差异。随着内存和处理器双双涨价，PC市场的装机成本面临持续上涨压力。目前，PC硬件市场正经历一场前所未有的涨价风暴。从内存、SSD的价格暴涨，到主板销量断崖式下滑，再到显卡、CPU的跟风提价，全产业链的价格波动不仅让消费者装机成本飙升，更引发了行业对未来供应格局的深度担忧。不过服务器CPU的供不应求不会像存储芯片尤其是内存（DRAM）那么极端。TrendForce集邦咨询指出，2025年第四季度各类应用的DRAM合约价普遍上涨40%以上，为本次上升周期中涨价幅度最大的季度，并预计2026年第一季度合约价将再出现15%以上涨幅。花旗则更为激进，将2026年DRAM平均售价（ASP）同比增速预期从之前的+53%大幅上调至+88%。现货市场方面，自2025年9月初以来，DDR5内存2Gbx8颗粒现货价格大涨307%，DDR4 1Gbx8也有158%的涨幅。这一全线跳升的价格轮廓，清晰地揭示了当前存储器市场供需关系的极度紧张。面对存储芯片供应紧张和价格持续上涨的预期，全球各大云服务提供商（CSP）和数据中心运营商采取了激进的库存策略，进一步放大了短期需求脉冲。为确保AI基础设施的顺利部署，北美头部云厂商如谷歌、Meta、微软及亚马逊AWS等不惜支付比手机厂商高出50%至60%的溢价，以锁定稀缺的DRAM和NAND产能。这些云巨头甚至提前6-12个月与存储原厂签订长期供货协议（LTA），以保障未来的内存供应。这种恐慌性的提前锁货行为，使得原本就紧张的市场供需关系雪上加霜，导致现货市场和合约市场价格同步飙升。为了进一步收缩供应、提升整体产品利润率，美光科技采取了主动退出消费级存储品牌业务的激进策略。2025年12月，美光宣布将在2026年3月前全面停止Crucial（英睿达）消费级存储产品的销售，包括内存和SSD。这一决策意味着美光将其约25%的DRAM产出从开放的消费市场转移至封闭的企业级及AI专用渠道，直接减少了消费级市场的有效供给。*声明：本文系原作者创作。文章内容系其个人观点，我方转载仅为分享与讨论，不代表我方赞成或认同，如有异议，请联系后台。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 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