国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构维持中长期看好

智通财经01-17

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，当前全球大类资产配置逻辑正发生深刻位移，宏观叙事从估值修复向盈利兑现切换。权益资产受美股利润率扩张、韩股存储周期及A股显著的债股比价优势驱动，具备较强的向上弹性；大宗商品受益于AI驱动的资源定价权重构，维持中长期看好；债市受制于美债财政溢价与中债风险偏好回升，长端防御性减弱。国信证券主要观点如下：大宗商品：从房产基建转向算力电力，资源品定价逻辑重构当前全球...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2604944229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-01-17 19:12","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2604944229","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构 维持中长期看好","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，当前全球大类资产配置逻辑正发生深刻位移，宏观叙事从估值修复向盈利兑现切换。权益资产受美股利润率扩张、韩股存储周期及A股显著的债股比价优势驱动，具备较强的向上弹性；大宗商品受益于AI驱动的资源定价权重构，维持中长期看好；债市受制于美债财政溢价与中债风险偏好回升，长端防御性减弱。国信证券主要观点如下：大宗商品：从房产基建转向算力电力，资源品定价逻辑重构当前全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1394159.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构 维持中长期看好</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构 维持中长期看好\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-17 19:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1394159.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，当前全球大类资产配置逻辑正发生深刻位移，宏观叙事从估值修复向盈利兑现切换。权益资产受美股利润率扩张、韩股存储周期及A股显著的债股比价优势驱动，具备较强的向上弹性；大宗商品受益于AI驱动的资源定价权重构，维持中长期看好；债市受制于美债财政溢价与中债风险偏好回升，长端防御性减弱。国信证券主要观点如下：大宗商品：从房产基建转向算力电力，资源品定价逻辑重构当前全球...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1394159.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"161715","symbol_name":"大宗商品","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1394159.html","article_id":"2604944229","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604944229","pubTimestamp":1768648359,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"权益资产受美股利润率扩张、韩股存储周期及A股显著的债股比价优势驱动，具备较强的向上弹性；大宗商品受益于AI驱动的资源定价权重构，维持中长期看好；债市受制于美债财政溢价与中债风险偏好回升，长端防御性减弱。国信证券主要观点如下：大宗商品：从房产基建转向算力电力，资源品定价逻辑重构当前全球大宗商品展现强劲的上涨动能，其背后逻辑已发生根本性变革。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","BK0188":"融资融券","002736":"国信证券","BK0276":"资本市场","000979.SH":"大宗商品","BK0028":"国家队","BK0183":"MSCI概念"},"translate_title":"Guosen Securities: Commodities benefit from AI-driven restructuring of resource pricing power and remain optimistic in the medium and long term","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161715":1.5,"000979.SH":1.5,"002736":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，当前全球大类资产配置逻辑正发生深刻位移，宏观叙事从估值修复向盈利兑现切换。权益资产受美股利润率扩张、韩股存储周期及A股显著的债股比价优势驱动，具备较强的向上弹性；大宗商品受益于AI驱动的资源定价权重构，维持中长期看好；债市受制于美债财政溢价与中债风险偏好回升，长端防御性减弱。国信证券主要观点如下：大宗商品：从房产基建转向算力电力，资源品定价逻辑重构当前全球大宗商品展现强劲的上涨动能，其背后逻辑已发生根本性变革。传统的制造业“晴雨表”定价权弱化，铜、银等工业金属与PMI走势背离，反映全球经济由旧动能向新质生产力的脱钩。AI产业遵循“算力扩张—电力需求—资源消耗”新路径，大规模硬件建设对导电与散热材料产生刚性支撑。此外，贸易保护预期触发的实物囤积需求及地缘政治带来的“安全溢价”，赋予资源品类货币的风险对冲属性。长周期看，需求弹性已系统性抬升，即便短期存在超涨回调压力，资源品长牛格局依然稳固。债券市场：中债长端震荡修复，美债聚焦财政风险中债方面，宏观经济总量增长动能放缓对债市形成支撑，但超长债利差处于历史低位需消化估值，伴随权益市场走强引发风险偏好回升，叠加1月超长债发行压力释放，长端品种动能短期承压，呈现震荡修复态势。美债方面，宏观数据出现背离，服务业强韧令降息预期推迟。特朗普指令购入2000亿美元MBS的类QE举措，实质性推升了长端通胀预期，关注财政主导风险。策略上建议严控长端风险敞口，采取“短久期+陡峭化”策略，通过TIPS对冲粘性通胀。A股：政策引导“疯牛”转“慢牛”，盈利动能由点及面开启扩散融资保证金比例上调等降杠杆举措，清晰释放了监管层引导“慢牛”的信号，短线回调不改中长期上行趋势。大类资产比价显示，A股股息率相对债收比处于05年以来7%的极端高位，性价比优势极具吸引力。牛市正步入第二阶段，基本面改善正由科创50为代表的点状修复向全行业扩散。随着反内卷政策与系统性降息组合拳落地，预计2026年全A(剔除金融)归母净利润同比将大幅回升至10%，市场逻辑由单纯的估值修复转向业绩与估值的双轮驱动。美股：AI效率红利兑现，利润率扩张夯实牛市基座美股4Q25财报季指引乐观，媒体预测4Q25盈利增长或达20%，显著高于市场共识。核心在于AI技术应用进入降本增效的实质兑现期，亚马逊、IBM等巨头通过AI优化成本结构，驱动营业利润率阶梯式上修。尽管估值溢价依然存在，但企业效率提升对盈利质量的优化夯实牛市底座。随着盈利动能从“科技七巨头”向二线科技及能源板块扩散，美股展现出极强的韧性。未来市场走势将更多依赖于利润率的持续扩张而非估值倍数的简单膨胀。日韩股市：日股盈利结构性蜕变，韩股步入存储芯片超级周期日韩作为亚洲科技链的重要支柱，盈利前景均录得显著上修。日本股市受益于治理改革与通胀良性循环，大型企业利润率预期已攀升至9.4%的历史高位，即便日经225远期PE接近24倍的高位，强劲的EPS上修仍提供了安全垫。韩国股市则直接受惠于AI存储芯片的超级周期，盈利预期自2025年下半年以来攀升近30%，领跑新兴市场。外资对韩国半导体板块的爆发式增配，反映了全球资金在AI硬件产业链内部的重新对冲，韩股正成为亚洲科技动能的新增长极。风险提示海外货币政策节奏和幅度的不确定性；地缘与贸易扰动；流动性收紧超预期；技术估值泡沫回撤。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2604944229","isCrawlerRequest":true}

国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构 维持中长期看好

精彩评论

国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构维持中长期看好