深夜拉升！光刻机龙头重大利好传来！

券商中国01-17

光刻机龙头创历史新高。　　受一系列利好消息刺激，全球光刻机龙头阿斯麦（ASML）股价持续拉升，创出历史新高，截至周五收盘，其股价本周累计涨幅超6%，总市值突破5200亿美元大关。　　摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中指出，随着阿斯麦最大客户——台积电给出的人工智能（AI）相关开支指引大超预期，叠加存储芯片领域的大规模产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。在最乐观情形下，阿斯麦股价有望进一步上涨...

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href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601173622356389.html><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>光刻机龙头创历史新高。　　受一系列利好消息刺激，全球光刻机龙头阿斯麦（ASML）股价持续拉升，创出历史新高，截至周五收盘，其股价本周累计涨幅超6%，总市值突破5200亿美元大关。　　摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中指出，随着阿斯麦最大客户——台积电给出的人工智能（AI）相关开支指引大超预期，叠加存储芯片领域的大规模产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。在最乐观情形下，阿斯麦股价有望进一步上涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202601173622356389.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2458330243.SGD","symbol_name":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) 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Lithography's leading major benefits are coming!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03165":0.6,"ASML":1.98,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"光刻机龙头创历史新高。　　受一系列利好消息刺激，全球光刻机龙头阿斯麦（ASML）股价持续拉升，创出历史新高，截至周五收盘，其股价本周累计涨幅超6%，总市值突破5200亿美元大关。　　摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中指出，随着阿斯麦最大客户——台积电给出的人工智能（AI）相关开支指引大超预期，叠加存储芯片领域的大规模产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。在最乐观情形下，阿斯麦股价有望进一步上涨70%。　　阿斯麦即将迎来“巅峰时刻”　　美东时间1月16日，美股开盘后，阿斯麦股价继续走高，美股盘中一度大涨超3%，截至收盘，涨幅达2.03%，总市值升至5263亿美元（约合人民币36673亿元），成为历史上第三只市值突破5200亿美元的欧洲股票。　　美股三大指数集体收跌，纳指跌0.06%，道指跌0.17%，标普500指数跌0.06%。芯片股普涨，费城半导体指数涨1.15%。　　有分析指出，台积电资本支出大幅提升成为阿斯麦股价飙涨的关键催化剂。　　台积电在2025年第四季度财报发布会上给出的2026年资本支出指引为520亿—560亿美元，中值同比增长32%，高于2025年的409亿美元。台积电还暗示未来几年资本支出可能进一步增长。　　摩根士丹利半导体团队在最新发布的财报中指出，随着AI浪潮推动先进制程和存储芯片的产能扩张，阿斯麦正站在史上最强盈利周期的起点。　　基于台积电的资本支出指引，摩根士丹利将台积电2026年EUV光刻机采购量预期从约20台上调至29台，2027年更是从28台大幅上调至40台。分析师预计，公司将提前建设A14制程产能，为2028年使用做准备。2025年预计台积电将接收约18台低NA EUV工具。　　摩根士丹利预期，得益于台积电、英特尔、三星等厂商的需求，阿斯麦2027年的EUV光刻机出货量可能达到惊人的80台。　　摩根士丹利在报告中指出，在对阿斯麦专用芯片制造设备的强劲需求推动下，爆发式的利润增长构成了看多该股的核心依据。　　包括资深半导体分析师Lee Simpson在内的摩根士丹利团队称，2027年将是阿斯麦盈利增长的巅峰之年，预计阿斯麦2027财年销售额将达到约468亿欧元，EBIT将达到197亿欧元，毛利率提升至56.2%。预计2027年每股收益45.74欧元，较此前预期的33.94欧元上调35%，相比2026年预期的29.12欧元实现57%的同比增长。这将是该公司有史以来最高的年度盈利增速。　　Simpson指出，预计未来2—3个季度的订单活动将验证这一强劲势头。　　摩根士丹利进一步指出，除了台积电外，内存芯片价格走高将促使内存制造商扩大产能建设，也将推动相关设备的需求。　　基于上述逻辑，摩根士丹利维持阿斯麦为“首选股”，采用31倍市盈率估值，给予1400欧元的目标价。牛市情景下，基于2027年每股收益50欧元、40倍市盈率，目标价可达2000欧元。　　短期的爆点　　短期来看，阿斯麦即将披露的财报将成为全球科技圈关注的焦点。根据日程安排，阿斯麦将于2026年1月28日发布2025年四季度业绩。　　摩根士丹利在报告中预测，阿斯麦2025年四季度订单为72.7亿欧元，强于三季度的54亿欧元。其中包括19台EUV低NA工具，主要来自台积电（9台）以及三星和SK海力士的内存需求。这将是阿斯麦最后一次披露订单数据。　　摩根士丹利预计，阿斯麦四季度销售额为96.75亿欧元，处于指引区间(92亿—98亿欧元)高端，同比增长4%；2025年全年销售额预计达326亿欧元，同比增长15%，符合上季度指引。　　关于2026年的业绩指引，摩根士丹利指出，预计阿斯麦将给出2026财年双位数销售增长指引(+12%)，约365亿欧元。公司管理层可能继续谈到业绩下降，但会降低保守程度。　　另外，DRAM市场的高景气度或将引发产能扩张潮。摩根士丹利表示，去年四季度和今年一季度的DRAM价格保持强劲势头，这主要由常规服务器CPU需求以及大型云服务商对2026-2027年AI需求（尤其是智能体AI）驱动。　　产能稀缺导致HBM和通用DRAM的环比及同比价格增长达到近乎史无前例的水平。摩根士丹利预计这一趋势将至少持续1—2个季度，将促成DRAM制造领域的大规模产能建设，从而带动对阿斯麦EUV和DUV工具的需求。　　摩根士丹利分析师判断，大部分产能投资将在2026—2027年落地，为2027—2028年的需求做准备。 （文章来源：券商中国）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2604912450","isCrawlerRequest":true}