中信证券：26年台积电(TSM.US)Capex指引超预期先进制程国产替代开启国产设备成长大周期

智通财经01-17

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年台积电(TSM.US)资本支出达409亿美元，展望2026年，公司给出较为激进资本支出(Capex)指引，预计2026年资本支出升至520亿至560亿美元，远超此前市场预期的450-480亿美元区间，这一超预期投入不仅标志着2nm制程量产周期的提前开启。根据SEMI，测算当前国内7nm及以下产能仅占全球不足5%份额，但是按照SEMI数据，目前中国...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1394151.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年台积电(TSM.US)资本支出达409亿美元，展望2026年，公司给出较为激进资本支出(Capex)指引，预计2026年资本支出升至520亿至560亿美元，远超此前市场预期的450-480亿美元区间，这一超预期投入不仅标志着2nm制程量产周期的提前开启。根据SEMI，测算当前国内7nm及以下产能仅占全球不足5%份额，但是按照SEMI数据，目前中国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1394151.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0965509101.SGD","symbol_name":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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growth","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.91,"TSM":1.95,"CIIHY":1.91,"06030":1.91,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年台积电(TSM.US)资本支出达409亿美元，展望2026年，公司给出较为激进资本支出(Capex)指引，预计2026年资本支出升至520亿至560亿美元，远超此前市场预期的450-480亿美元区间，这一超预期投入不仅标志着2nm制程量产周期的提前开启。根据SEMI，测算当前国内7nm及以下产能仅占全球不足5%份额，但是按照SEMI数据，目前中国内地半导体需求占全球约35%，预计未来会逐步填补产能缺口，带来5~6倍的扩产空间。中信证券主要观点如下：台积电2025年凭借AI与3nm制程驱动实现业绩创纪录增长，2026年资本支出至520-560亿美元超市场预期台积电于1月15日公告2025年业绩，2025年，台积电凭借AI浪潮下高效能运算(HPC)业务的强劲爆发(全年收入占比升至58%)以及3nm制程的全面规模化，实现了2025年营收1220亿美元(同比大幅增长35.9%)与毛利率近60%的卓越业绩。受益于AI算力需求强劲拉动，公司先进制程(7nm及以下)营收占比达77%，其中3nm与5nm制程合计贡献63%的晶圆销售金额。2025年归属母公司净利润达1.72万亿元新台币，同比增长超30%，创历史新高。2025年公司资本支出达409亿美元，展望2026年，台积电给出了较为激进的资本支出(Capex)指引，公司预计2026年资本支出升至520亿至560亿美元，远超此前市场预期的450-480亿美元区间，其中70%-80%投向先进制程，10%-20%用于先进封装、测试与掩膜制造。这一超预期投入不仅标志着2nm制程量产周期的提前开启，更反映了公司在CoWoS等先进封装领域加速扩产以应对日益紧缺的AI算力芯片需求的战略决心。台积电Capex的超预期增长，侧面印证了全球AI算力需求仍处于需求旺盛的上升期，推动半导体设备需求的快速增长根据EETIMES对2025年至2035年的全球半导体市场的预测，全球半导体销售额有望从2025年的680亿美元提升到2035年的1741亿美元，CAGR为9.9%；其中服务器、数据中心和存储对半导体的需求将从2025年的156亿美元快速提升到2035年的826亿美元，CAGR为18.6%，显著高于半导体整体。从产能看，EETIMES预计全球半导体制造产能有望从2025年的1120万片/月增长到2035年的1900万片/月，CAGR为5.4%。其中，在AI需求的拉动之下，7nm及以下的先进逻辑产能预计2025-2035年CAGR增速约15%；DRAM的产能2025-2035年CAGR增速约7%。产能的快速扩张带动全球半导体设备市场规模持续增长，2024年全球半导体设备市场规模超1000亿美元(SEMI数据)，2018~2024年CAGR为8.7%；SEMI预计2025年全球半导体设备市场规模将达到1210亿美元，而2026年市场规模有望继续增长至1390亿美元，主要受先进制程升级、新兴市场需求(AI、自动驾驶等)及各国本土产能的快速扩张推动。国内形成“AI算力高增”与“先进制程国产替代”的双轮驱动格局，先进制程产能缺口在100万片以上根据SEMI的预测，全球7纳米及以下的先进逻辑制程产能在2024年约为每月85万片，并将在2028年增长至每月140万片。其中，台积电和三星占据了绝大部分份额。中国内地在先进逻辑领域与世界领先水平还存在差距，根据SEMI，中信证券测算当前国内7nm及以下产能仅占全球不足5%份额，但是按照SEMI数据，目前中国内地半导体需求占全球约35%，预计未来会逐步填补产能缺口，带来5~6倍的扩产空间。根据TrendForce数据，中信证券测算2025年全球存储芯片产能在350~400万片/月，国内产能占比仅为10%左右，而中国是全球最大的智能手机、PC和服务器市场，消耗了全球超过30%的存储芯片。因此，存储领域的产能缺口仍然巨大，自给率不足，国内可拓展空间有2~3倍的产能。因此预计未来国内先进制程(先进存储+先进逻辑)会持续扩产，逐渐填补国内百万片月产能以上的缺口，对应着数千亿美元的设备投资市场。目前半导体设备国产化率仅30%左右，未来看到翻倍以上空间国内主流晶圆厂为了应对供应链风险，正在积极构建“非美系”设备供应链，这为国产设备提供了一个快速成长的窗口期。在本土晶圆厂的支持下，国产设备厂商获得产线验证和迭代机会，从去胶、清洗等成熟环节，到刻蚀、薄膜沉积(PVD/CVD)、化学机械抛光(CMP)等核心环节，国产设备正在加速从“能用”迈向“好用”，从成熟制程向先进存储和先进逻辑产线不断渗透，国产化率持续提升。国产化空间来看，根据中国招标网披露的设备采购情况测算，2022年设备国产率约18%，我们预计2025年受益于DRAM和3D 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中信证券：26年台积电(TSM.US)Capex指引超预期 先进制程国产替代开启国产设备成长大周期

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中信证券：26年台积电(TSM.US)Capex指引超预期先进制程国产替代开启国产设备成长大周期