马斯克不能没有朱晓彤

创业邦01-19

编者按：本文来自微信公众号网易科技（ID：tech_163），作者：定西，创业邦经授权转载。这是一场高风险的对赌。2026年1月，朱晓彤签署了特斯拉新的5年期合约：52万股期权、行权价435.8美元。这本质上是一份典型的“黄金手铐”式激励方案。马斯克的真实目的，是把这位特斯拉内部的“救火队长”与公司未来五年的长期命运深度绑定，以应对愈发激烈的全球市场竞争，以及 Robotaxi 商业化、4680...

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Xiaotong","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLI":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLP":0.6},"content_text":"编者按：本文来自微信公众号 网易科技（ID：tech_163），作者：定西，创业邦经授权转载。这是一场高风险的对赌。2026年1月，朱晓彤签署了特斯拉新的5年期合约：52万股期权、行权价435.8美元。这本质上是一份典型的“黄金手铐”式激励方案。马斯克的真实目的，是把这位特斯拉内部的“救火队长”与公司未来五年的长期命运深度绑定，以应对愈发激烈的全球市场竞争，以及 Robotaxi 商业化、4680 电池量产等一系列关键挑战。但这份潜在高达16亿元人民币的激励，并不好拿。以当前每股股价442美元计算，约合2.3亿美元，折合约16亿元人民币。期权分48个月逐步归属，2031年3月才完全解锁。期权行权价为435.8美元，与授予日特斯拉股价（约445美元）差3%。这意味着朱晓彤必须接着狠狠干五年，不能成为高管流失中的一员。收益也完全取决于特斯拉未来股价的持续上涨，若未显著上涨，期权将丧失价值，有“不增长即废纸”的压力。01朱晓彤其人这位一度被传为马斯克接班人的男人，现年45岁，出生于辽宁沈阳，是华裔新西兰人。在新西兰奥克兰理工大学（Auckland University of Technology）获得信息技术学士学位。随后在美国杜克大学（Duke University）获得工商管理硕士（MBA）学位。他从美国杜克大学毕业后在非洲从事基础设施项目的相关工作，自2014年加入特斯拉，在那之前，他并没有汽车行业从业经验。正因如此，一位中国汽车产业人士告诉网易科技，朱晓彤从不混汽车圈子。但朱晓彤是个狠角色，同事形容他为“疯子”，有时候睡觉的时间控制在两到三个小时，如果太忙了就干脆放弃睡觉。马斯克曾公开表示：“我每天喝8杯咖啡，工作16小时，自认为已达人类极限，没想到中国还有员工一天工作22小时！”朱晓彤没有办公室，和普通员工呆着一起，喜欢站着办公，经常吃住在工厂。2019年，特斯拉正处于产能地狱和财务危机的双重压力之下，朱晓彤临危受命，全面负责上海工厂的建设和运营。在朱晓彤的推动下，上海超级工厂创造了“工业史上的奇迹”。从破土动工到首批国产Model 3交付仅用358天（约10个月），比柏林工厂快3倍，成为特斯拉全球效率最高的工厂，而且成本比美国低65%。特斯拉2025年全球范围内共计交付约163.6万台电动车，其中上海超级工厂交付85.1万台，占全球总交付量的52%。12月10日，上海超级工厂下线第400万台整车；12月31日，特斯拉全球第900万台整车顺利从上海超级工厂下线。而后，朱晓彤又被马斯克叫到德州和柏林“救火”。2022年底，德州超级工厂产能爬坡遇阻，周产量仅1000辆。马斯克紧急召唤朱晓彤跨洋支援，他用4个月时间就将工厂周产量提升至3000辆，解决了产能瓶颈。还有，2025年，特斯拉欧洲销量出现断崖式下滑，德国市场销量暴跌30%，英国暴跌62%。柏林工厂周产量长期卡在1000辆，产能利用率不足40%。马斯克再次将救火任务交给朱晓彤，他带着中国团队飞赴柏林，三个月内将产能提升至3000辆。这是一位没有所谓大厂经验的人，真正用实力达到顶峰的故事。02特斯拉隐忧特斯拉近年高管离职率高达27%，直接向马斯克汇报的高管离职率更是高达44%，朱晓彤是唯一连续留任的核心高管。特斯拉董事会赏罚分明。朱晓彤这次签署的52万股期权激励，几乎是马斯克同款薪酬包。2018年，特斯拉曾给予马斯克一份潜在价值550亿美元的10年期权激励；2025年，特斯拉董事会再次批准了马斯克一份潜在价值高达1万亿美元的薪酬方案。不仅如此，在朱晓彤这次期权激励之前，2023年，特斯拉奖励了他34万股的特斯拉股票，折合约人民币4亿元。这些激励向员工和市场传递管理层稳定的信号，即，特斯拉正在从“创始人驱动”向“制度化治理”转变，通过制度化手段保留核心人才。另一个不容忽视的隐忧在于，特斯拉还能否维持足够强劲、且可持续的增长动能。未来五年，对特斯拉而言将是一段高难度周期。Robotaxi 被马斯克视为押注未来的“终极答案”，其量产落地与商业化运营，被不少投资者和分析师寄望为2026年特斯拉市值重估和增长预期的核心引擎。但无论是规模化部署、监管，还是运营模型跑通，都存在极高不确定性。与此同时，自动驾驶FSD的持续迭代与订阅制变现前景、Optimus人形机器人的量产节奏与成本控制，同样横亘在前。任何一个方向单独拿出来，都是工程、商业和时间三重维度上的“地狱级难题”。而更现实、也更紧迫的问题在于：特斯拉的汽车销量该如何重新拉升，以稳住基本盘。2025年，特斯拉已显现出销量下滑、市场份额被新老竞争对手持续蚕食的趋势。如果主业承压无法止跌回升，那么所有“未来叙事”的容错空间都会被大幅压缩。2025年全年交付约1,636,000 辆，比 2024 年的约 1,789,000 辆下降8-9%。这是特斯拉销量连续第二年下降。四季度交付约418,000 辆，同比下降约15%左右。如何扭转颓势，是马斯克和朱晓彤当前最大的难题。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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