阿波罗全球：美股估值接近1880年以来的最高水平

智通财经01-19

智通财经APP注意到，根据阿波罗全球管理公司的数据，股票估值正接近 145 年来的最高水平。该公司首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克写道：“周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)，也被称为席勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)，是一种股市估值衡量指标。它通过当前股价除以过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收益，从而平滑业务周期的波动，用以评估长期的估值过高或过低情况，并预测未来回报。”斯洛克写表示，“与仅使用一年收益的...

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年来的最高水平。该公司首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克写道：“周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)，也被称为席勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)，是一种股市估值衡量指标。它通过当前股价除以过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收益，从而平滑业务周期的波动，用以评估长期的估值过高或过低情况，并预测未来回报。”斯洛克写表示，“与仅使用一年收益的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119145727a72b4899&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2430703178.SGD","symbol_name":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119145727a72b4899&s=b","article_id":"2604183130","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119145727a72b4899&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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1880","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"APO":1.93},"content_text":"智通财经APP注意到，根据阿波罗全球管理公司的数据，股票估值正接近 145 年来的最高水平。该公司首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克写道：“周期性调整市盈率(CAPE)，也被称为席勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)，是一种股市估值衡量指标。它通过当前股价除以过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收益，从而平滑业务周期的波动，用以评估长期的估值过高或过低情况，并预测未来回报。”斯洛克写表示，“与仅使用一年收益的传统市盈率相比，它能更准确地衡量可持续的盈利能力。最新读数显示，股票估值正处于自 1880 年以来的最高水平附近。”阿波罗的数据显示，当前约 39 的读数比历史平均水平高出了一倍多。这意味着未来 10 年的预期年化回报率可能会非常低，甚至为负。与 2000 年互联网泡沫类似，当前的估值高度集中在少数 AI 巨头(如英伟达、微软等)身上。如果 AI 带来的业绩增长无法匹配其极高的市盈率，市场将面临巨大的回调压力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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