申万宏源：年货节错期、暖冬影响快递业增速推荐圆通速递(600233.SH)等

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智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，展望明年，快递行业需求及反内卷行业自律政策存在多重不确定性，但头部企业份额、利润的集中趋势确定。推荐反内卷以来优势持续扩大的中通快递-W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)的业绩弹性。极兔速递-W(01519)Q4东南亚及新市场业务量加速增长，看好公司未来的持续领先优势及行业地位。顺丰控股(002352.SZ)...

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Recommend YTO Express (600233. SH), etc.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600233":1.5,"06806":1.5,"000166":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，展望明年，快递行业需求及反内卷行业自律政策存在多重不确定性，但头部企业份额、利润的集中趋势确定。推荐反内卷以来优势持续扩大的中通快递-W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)，关注申通快递(002468.SZ)的业绩弹性。极兔速递-W(01519)Q4东南亚及新市场业务量加速增长，看好公司未来的持续领先优势及行业地位。顺丰控股(002352.SZ)管理结构和业务线调整充分，关注底部配置机遇。申万宏源主要观点如下：事件：快递公司发布12月月报圆通速递12月快递产品收入64.96亿元，同比增长7.48%;业务完成量28.84亿票，同比增长9.04%;快递产品单票收入2.25元，同比下降1.43%。韵达股份12月快递服务业务收入46.26亿元，同比下降1.49%;完成业务量21.48亿票，同比下降7.37%;快递服务单票收入2.15元，同比增长5.91%。申通快递12月快递服务业务收入58.36亿元，同比增长28.23%;完成业务量25.01亿票，同比增长11.09%;快递服务单票收入2.33元，同比增长15.35%。12月顺丰控股速运物流业务、供应链及国际业务合计收入为273.39亿元，同比增长3.41%。其中，速运业务营收达到203.78亿元，同比增长3.78%;业务量14.76亿票，同比增长9.33%;单票收入达到13.81元/票。供应链及国际业务营收69.61亿元，同比增长2.35%。受快递涨价、年货节错期、电商税等多重影响，12月快递业务量增速继续下降根据国家邮政局数据，2025年我国快递业务量完成1990亿件，以此计算12月快递业务量增速为2.6%，明显下降，该行认为主要是受到快递涨价、年货节错期、电商税等多重影响，国家邮政局预计26年快递业务量增速为8%左右。由于年货节错期影响，该行认为1-2月整体件量增速同比去年有望保持稳健增长。单价方面，12月行业单价为7.94元，环比增加0.31元，12月快递反内卷继续推进，行业单价上行。快递公司单价及业务量增速分化单价环比变动角度：顺丰(+0.34元)>圆通(+0.01元)>韵达(-0.01元)>申通(-0.08元)。业务量呈现分化态势，业务量同比增速：申通(+11.1%)>顺丰(+9.3%)>圆通(+9.0%)>韵达(-7.4%)。该行认为，电商税等因素对低客单价商家影响较大，进而间接加大尾部公司获客难度，加速行业分化，预计此趋势仍将延续。风险提示：行业价格竞争程度超预期;快递需求下降;行业格局发生重大变化;用工成本上升风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2604167160","isCrawlerRequest":true}

申万宏源：年货节错期、暖冬影响快递业增速 推荐圆通速递(600233.SH)等

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申万宏源：年货节错期、暖冬影响快递业增速推荐圆通速递(600233.SH)等