库克“退休”传闻背后：苹果如何押注未来

中国企业家01-19

苹果可能正在把未来押注在“工程能力”而非“叙事能力”上。文|《中国企业家》记者王怡洁实习生张晚凝编辑|马吉英图片来源|中企图库苹果CEO库克的“退休”传闻，又有新进展。1月初，据《纽约时报》透露，三位接近苹果公司的知情人士称，现年65岁的蒂姆·库克已告知公司高层，他感到疲惫，希望减少工作量。这再次被视为库克退休的信号。在2025年，就曾有媒体报道称，库克可能于2026年退休。1998年，...

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张晚凝编辑|马吉英图片来源|中企图库苹果CEO库克的“退休”传闻，又有新进展。1月初，据《纽约时报》透露，三位接近苹果公司的知情人士称，现年65岁的蒂姆·库克已告知公司高层，他感到疲惫，希望减少工作量。这再次被视为库克退休的信号。在2025年，就曾有媒体报道称，库克可能于2026年退休。1998年，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119081200a43a6c7d&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1244550577.SGD","symbol_name":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119081200a43a6c7d&s=b","article_id":"2604086519","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260119081200a43a6c7d&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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张晚凝编辑|马吉英图片来源|中企图库苹果CEO库克的“退休”传闻，又有新进展。1月初，据《纽约时报》透露，三位接近苹果公司的知情人士称，现年65岁的蒂姆·库克已告知公司高层，他感到疲惫，希望减少工作量。这再次被视为库克退休的信号。在2025年，就曾有媒体报道称，库克可能于2026年退休。1998年，乔布斯亲自招募库克加入苹果公司。“我知道这是一生难得的机会，能为一位创意天才工作。”库克当时说。在乔布斯辞去首席执行官一职，转任董事会主席后，库克于2011年8月24日被任命为苹果公司新任首席执行官。如今，距离库克成为苹果公司的CEO已经过去十四年。库克从史蒂夫·乔布斯手中接过苹果公司时，苹果的市值约为3500亿美元。截至发稿，苹果市值近3.8万亿美元。近十五年间，这家公司市值扩大约十倍，并在库克任内先后成为首家市值突破1万亿美元（2018年）、2万亿美元（2020年）和3万亿美元（2023年）的美国公司。这位供应链出身的CEO领导着苹果从一家创新驱动发展的科技公司变为商业帝国。他重新定义了公司的核心战场，将产品战略重心从专攻单一产品转向构建满足用户需求的完整生态。这帮助苹果创造了更持续、多元的增长来源。但随着库克年岁渐长，其退休传闻也不断出现。1月9日，苹果在年度股东委托书（proxy statement）中指出，董事会在考虑到Art Levinson、Ron Sugar分别作为董事会主席、审计委员会主席时对公司业务和运营的深远影响以及个人贡献，在经过公司2025年11月的审查后，苹果认为两人可以继续履行董事职责，持续为苹果的业务决策提供清晰的商业判断，并从更全面的角度审视公司发展，以有效地解决苹果不断变化的需求。有猜测认为，这是在为库克的退休铺路，因为库克卸任CEO后，可能会出任董事会主席。2月24日上午8点（北京时间2月25日0点），苹果将举行线上股东大会，有猜测认为，此次股东大会或许会有关于库克的具体卸任时间与接班人的最终人选消息。从产品创新到生态为重在库克的领导下，苹果将研发重心从开拓全新产品转向对iPhone、Mac、iPad等成熟产品线进行年度升级。从iPhone 11开始，苹果在保持高端旗舰的同时，推出更多尺寸手机及更具价格竞争力的型号，覆盖从标准版到旗舰版手机的全价位段，最大化争取市场份额与用户。该策略获得了强劲的回报。iPhone 11系列创下2.5亿台单系列最高纪录。2025年，苹果以约20%~25%的市场份额蝉联全球智能手机出货量冠军，击败三星，连续三年位居出货量榜首。‌‌与此同时，苹果致力于通过不同产品覆盖构成完整的苹果生态，让用户在“苹果全家桶”中满足一切需求。除了基础的手机、电脑协作，苹果在Apple Watch中加入了睡眠监测、心率监测、摔倒警报等，让Apple Watch从普通配件演进为健康管理核心设备。AirPods则真正推动了无线耳机市场的发展。它们不仅是独立增长点，更是通过苹果生态深度绑定用户的关键要素。在2019年财年第一财季业绩报告中，库克将服务明确为苹果未来收入的新增长引擎。到2025年，苹果App Store周活用户达8.5亿，创造了纪录，开发者收入超5500亿美元；Apple Music十周年订阅量创新高，节日季金曲播放破亿；Apple Pay覆盖89个市场，数字身份功能拓展至美国13个州。从库克的战略远见与执行力来看，生态与服务的深度整合所带来的用户高粘性，正是其任内最核心的功绩之一。\\点击封面订阅全年杂志打造苹果的“心脏”如果说完善的生态是苹果浮于海面之上的冰山，那么其深藏于海面之下、确保冰山稳固的庞大基座则是全球供应链。库克极其厌恶库存，他曾告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为库存“从根本上来说就是邪恶的”。他还说过：“库存就像乳制品一样，没人想买变质的牛奶。”在苹果公司职业生涯早期时，库克就意识到，公司的供应链过于复杂且反应迟钝。因此他将苹果公司转变为准时制（JIT）。库克在加入苹果仅7个月内，就将库存周期从30天缩短至6天，并在1999年达到2天。至今，苹果仍能够每五天就完成一次库存周转，像钟表一样精准地在全球范围内发布、生产和发货数百万部iPhone，几乎没有库存积压。库克关闭了苹果自己的工厂，将生产全部外包给富士康等专业制造商。苹果产品的零部件供应、生产制造、主要的消费市场都在亚洲，这样的供应链提高了产品运转的效率，库存压力更低。与此同时，库克对供应商实施严格管理。他将主要供应商从100多家大幅精简至24家左右，通过集中采购获得极强议价权和质量控制力。这一切让苹果实现了惊人的成本控制和资金周转速度。此外，2012年，为回应股东压力，库克重启了苹果中断多年的资本返还计划。十四年来，苹果累计资本返还规模近1万亿美元。从2011年至2025年，苹果公司的流通股数量呈现持续下降的趋势：2011年，流通股数量为26，226百万股，到2025年，流通股数量已降至15，005百万股。十四年里，苹果公司的流通股总数减少了超过110亿股，这主要反映了公司长期、大规模实施股票回购计划的结果。此举意义远不止于“给股东发钱”——回购更具灵活性，直接减少股本、提升每股收益（EPS），也是支撑股价和估值的关键财务杠杆。库克将运营与财务的精密性，提升到了与产品创新同等重要的战略高度。争议与隐忧尽管库克任期内所取得的成就巨大，但他和苹果所面临的争议同样突出。在库克领导期间，他一直面对着“创新乏力”的质疑。iPhone、MacBook是成功的品类延伸，他从未拿出如iPhone般重新定义行业的“革命性产品”。无人能忘记乔布斯从牛皮纸袋中拿出薄薄的银色笔记本带来的震撼，而库克从未留下这样的场面。尽管试图推行Vision Pro，库克认为这是一款颠覆性的产品，然而其市场反应低迷，在2024年累计出货39万台，国际数据公司IDC预计，2025年第四季度Vision Pro的出货量仅为4.5万台。销量的低靡让其供应商之一的立讯精密于2025年初停止Vision Pro的生产，宣告着库克创新项目的失败。批评者认为，库克时代是优化与迭代的时代，而非颠覆与开创的时代。这也使苹果没能赶上第一波AI风口。彭博社指出，苹果高层对AI革命反应迟缓且缺乏明确战略。公司内部将AI视为“功能”而非“核心能力”，因此不愿像微软、谷歌那样进行大规模战略性投资。即使库克从谷歌挖来AI负责人约翰·詹南德雷亚（John Giannandrea），却也因为其理念与苹果内部相悖、得不到足够资源和高层支持而难以推动变革，最终其权力反而被削弱。苹果在AI领域慢人一步的节奏与其过去成熟产品为先的战略一脉相承。苹果高层内部认同通过延迟发布换取技术成熟度，但AI迭代速度过快，让苹果“措手不及”，错失了早期布局的黄金窗口期。尽管苹果试图跟上AI浪潮，2024年，苹果在WWDC（苹果全球开发者大会）上发布Apple Intelligence，然而近两年过去，Apple Intelligence依然没能拿出成绩。在生成式人工智能快速演进的背景下，苹果所处的产业位置正在遭受来自另一赛道的打击。在人工智能这一高度依赖算力、模型和数据规模的赛道上，谷歌凭借免费开放的安卓系统和领先的大模型能力，持续扩大技术外溢效应。相比之下，苹果在AI时代的竞争力更多系于既有生态的粘性与整合能力，在软件上缺乏底层算力和模型的绝对优势。AI所带来的反应是连锁式的。由于英伟达的大规模采购，台积电2025年全年营收飙升36%。AI芯片或取代智能手机，成为台积电营收增长的新引擎。苹果失去了对台积电的绝对议价权。另一方面，库克打造的供应链优势虽推动了苹果的利润增长，却也使其陷入过度依赖他人的困境。若不能在未来技术浪潮中掌握核心自主能力，苹果目前的合作之路也可能变为其衰退的前奏。根据WPN报道，苹果日前正在面临玻璃纤维布短缺的问题。这种材料是芯片生产的关键组成部分之一，人工智能需求的有力增长使玻璃纤维布的短缺加剧，这给苹果的供应链带来了冲击。据了解，玻璃纤维布的生产难以规模化，涉及特殊的编织工艺和化学处理，全球只有少数公司能够大规模生产。据MacMegasite报道，知情人士透露，苹果公司一直在与供应商谈判并探索替代材料，以减少玻璃纤维布短缺对苹果生产的影响。后库克时代，苹果如何押注未来当下，与库克退休相关的最大悬念，就是谁会成为他的继任者。目前被苹果内部与外部同时反复点名的热门人选，是现任苹果硬件工程高级副总裁约翰·特纳斯（John Ternus）。他并非公众熟知的明星高管，但他直接负责iPhone、Mac、iPad等核心硬件的工程与量产，深度参与苹果自研芯片（Apple Silicon）的落地。他既懂产品设计，也熟悉全球供应链运转。年龄结构上，50岁的他与当年接班的库克相似，具备“长期执掌”的可能性。在一众潜在继任者中（如软件主管费德里吉、服务主管库伊等），特纳斯的特殊之处在于，他是唯一一位几乎整个职业生涯都押注在硬件体系上的人。如果他上位，将是苹果近三十年来首位“工程师型、硬件出身”的CEO。这代表着，苹果可能正在把未来押注在“工程能力”而非“叙事能力”上。在外界看来，如果特纳斯最终接班，这并不意味着苹果放弃创新，而是意味着苹果选择了一种更工程化、更渐进、也更保守的方式，来应对一个不再允许犯大错的时代。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"executive","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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