外卖竞争，正在被淘宝闪购重新定义

象先志01-16

昨天千问开了场发布会，宣布全面接入阿里生态，一次性升级了 400 多项 AI 办事功能。在全面打通包括淘宝、闪购、飞猪、高德、支付宝等生活和消费场景后，千问的真实办事能力，完成了一次跃升。过去一段时间，AI 产品的发布会已经不可避免地诱发了审美疲劳。它们要么讲模型参数和刷榜进展，要么聊 PPT、修图和前端 demo 三件套。所以我要说，昨天看千问直播的时间没有浪费。非常幸运，吴嘉在台上没有整这些...

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EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"Takeaway competition is being redefined by Taobao Flash Sale","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"BABA":1.95,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09988":1.95},"content_text":"昨天千问开了场发布会，宣布全面接入阿里生态，一次性升级了 400 多项 AI 办事功能。在全面打通包括淘宝、闪购、飞猪、高德、支付宝等生活和消费场景后，千问的真实办事能力，完成了一次跃升。过去一段时间，AI 产品的发布会已经不可避免地诱发了审美疲劳。它们要么讲模型参数和刷榜进展，要么聊 PPT、修图和前端 demo 三件套。所以我要说，昨天看千问直播的时间没有浪费。非常幸运，吴嘉在台上没有整这些东西。没讲参数，也没秀 benchmark。他用千问点了 40 杯霸王茶姬的伯牙绝弦。后来淘宝闪购骑士真把奶茶提进会场，那一刻我意识到，阿里的大消费和 AI 战略已经完成了人生的大融合。AI 不再只是数字世界的智能工具，而是开始介入现实世界的交易和履约。过去十多年，外卖行业的进化几乎全部发生在供给侧：更强的地推能力，更密集的商家供给，更精细灵活的补贴机制，以及不断优化的订单分配和履约算法。这些努力极大提升了供给效率。而在需求侧，行业没有发生同等级别的进步。我们始终缺乏一种更好的方式，去理解用户的真实需求，并将其与合适的商品和服务高效匹配。某种程度上，供给的极度丰富和爆炸式的营销，反而让这个过程变得更加复杂。需求的起点和交易的终点之间，距离被拉长了，路径也变得模糊。因此，当“一句话点外卖”成为现实，一个自然的问题是，外卖行业的竞争逻辑，会不会因此发生改变？千问能点奶茶后，外卖竞争的逻辑变了上周的AGI-Next 圆桌对话上，姚顺雨抛了个判断，认为 C 端用户大部分时间都不需要极强的智能。这个说法没有问题，因为前沿模型的能力改善，C 端用户的感知不明显。不过这里需要指出一个限制因素，当 AI 只能运行在高度洁净、低摩擦的场景中时，它就是很难触及或者暴露自己的能力上限。对话、问答、总结，这些典型场景对大模型来说，太封闭、太干净、太游刃有余了。但一旦需要模型完成更复杂的任务，也就是要求从“能对话”变成“能办事”，模型的能力上限将直接决定它能否理解现实世界的复杂约束。这次千问全面打通阿里的服务生态，就是挑战模型上限、构建能力反馈回路的例子。以“一句话点外卖”为例。通过调用淘宝闪购，实现了从需求表达、商家匹配、订单生成，到支付宝 AI 付款的全流程闭环。用户只需要表达意图，AI 就能准确承接需求并接管消费动作，体验上的流畅感超过传统外卖流程。如果你的描述是足够精准的，比如“珍珠奶茶 少冰少糖”，千问会直接从淘宝闪购的商品库中获取符合条件的商品列表，然后通过卡片式 UI 呈现选项，最后下单时还会自动匹配最大优惠。如果描述相对模糊，千问会先进一步弄清需求，然后再推荐选项。最重要的是，这些对话不是“阅后即焚”，千问会累积你的口味偏好和个性习惯，用得越久，路径越短，摩擦越少。当然，现阶段从实际表现看，用千问点淘宝闪购，有时候体验并不完美。不过理解 AI，首先你得学会预判，学会以终为始。Cursor 推出后的很长时间里，产品使用体验也是不好的。但 Claude3.7 一出来，Cursor 的 AI 编程功能立刻出现质变，并快速从专业程序员群体扩散到普通用户。用千问点外卖也是如此。它可能不会立刻马上产生颠覆性影响，但行业的竞争逻辑已经在开始发生变化。这也引出了一个更宏观的行业判断。当 AI 模型能力和基础产品功能逐步趋同之后，服务生态或许是比模型更具决定性的因素。因为生态的深度和完整度，是最难被复制的能力。你可以想想下面这张图里的这些图标，阿里花了多少钱收购它们，又投入了多少资源长期维护。举个例子。千问更新后，大量演示和用户的自发尝试，都集中在“点外卖”这个场景。它高频、即时、结果可感知，是最容易承接用户心智的功能点。但前提在于，淘宝闪购恰好具备足够成熟的供给和履约能力。而反过来，淘宝闪购与千问的融合，获得了 AI 交易的第一触点。这意味着外卖竞争的拐点已经来临，行业开始转向拼整体系统效率、拼创新式服务体验。AI 消费的流畅体验是无法靠砸钱实现的。它依赖于健壮的商业生态，生态需要长时间的建立、维护和布局。它更依赖于领先的 AI 技术基础，而 Meta 的前车之鉴证明，这也不是单纯花钱能解决的事。AI 重塑外卖竞争格局，淘宝闪购为什么更具确定性过去 12 个月里，阿里股价翻了一倍，显著领先于大盘。多出来的这部分阿尔法，有些是阿里云的功劳，因为它实现了超预期增长。另一部分则源于淘宝闪购，它事实上支撑起了阿里在大消费层面的核心叙事。坦率的讲，9 个月前淘宝闪购宣布加入外卖大战的时候，市场分歧其实很大。但 9 个月后，淘宝闪购已经证明，在通过坚定投入提升市场认知和用户规模之后，它同样具备依靠系统效率保持新增份额、并持续改善业务结构的能力。本月初，阿里跟几个外资投行做了业绩预沟通，有几个有价值的细节。管理层表示四季度淘闪订单量份额保持稳定的同时，GMV 份额和平均客单价都实现了增长，订单结构持续改善。四季度预期亏损 200 亿，环比显著降低，较竞争对手收敛速度更快。同时，淘闪跟盒马、猫超的协同效应显著，非餐订单稳定在1000万/天，远场电商交叉销售符合预期。管理层明显对淘闪进展非常满意，再次强调将坚定投入决心，目标是份额领先。不难看出，今天淘闪已经在规模、结构、扭亏效率等方面具备了多维度和差异化的竞争优势。随着千问接入淘闪，外卖和 AI 的结合更增加了淘闪手里的底牌。用 AI 改造外卖，本质上是一条完全不同、也更高质量的价值创造路径。补贴和价格刺激，一定程度是争夺存量用户；AI 点外卖则是在用技术做大蛋糕，是在扩展有效需求的边界。当对意图理解到下单支付的整条链路都被打通， 交易撮合不再基于流量分发的逻辑，而是追求如何把用户需求的精准识别和可靠执行做到极致。从商家层面讲，AI 会真正带去广告之外更直接的生意协同增长的可能。从用户角度讲，摩擦持续压低，决策成本显著减少，像那些原本因为麻烦、琐碎和信息不对称而消弭的需求，一定会被释放出来。昨天千问发布会过后，很多人提到，阿里把 OpenAI 和 Google 想做的事提前做成了，而且做得比他们好。OpenAI 和 Google 都缺乏阿里的生态积累。二者都想接入购物网站，但因为跟 Amazon 谈不成，只能退而求其次接入沃尔玛。但阿里跟 OpenAI 以及 Google 这么做的出发点其实不太一样。比如 OpenAI 有明显的商业化考虑，最近准备在回复中植入赞助商广告。电商是离钱最近的互联网业务，接入电商是流量变现几乎绕不开的方式。但千问才推出两个月，还远没到需要考虑商业化的阶段，对于阿里生态的全面接入主要出于满足群众对 AI “能办事”的期待。从这个角度回头看，你会发现淘宝闪购处在一个相当稀缺或者说幸运的生态位。吴嘉用千问完成“一句话点外卖”，不只是产品演示，还带有一丝象征意味。它代表淘宝闪购的角色正在发生变化。它是阿里大消费战略的关键支撑，也是集团 AI 战略得以落地生根的现实载体。大消费，构成阿里的基本盘，提供稳定的现金流和稳固的战略空间。AI，承载着阿里的长期想象力，大幅抬升未来的发展上限。两大战略，双重确定性，叠加放大的正反馈，淘宝闪购的价值或许需要重估了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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