浙商证券：2026年游戏板块市场规模将同比继续上升重点关注腾讯控股、心动公司等

浙商证券股份有...01-15

2025年是游戏板块大年，我们总结2025年游戏板块的特征是：1）产品线驱动；2）口红效应明显；3）A股游戏公司崛起。回顾2025年的游戏板块，我们看到自2025年4月的产品线低估后，各大游戏选择二季度开始上线重点新品，流水开始起量，带动板块收益率提升。我们认为当前时间点，市场更愿意选择产品线已经成熟的公司进行持仓，即更加愿意“右侧”交易。因此，2025年的游戏板块是在《无尽冬日》《超自然行动组》...

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etc.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.94,"02400":1.87,"TCEHY":1.94,"TCHmain":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"2025年是游戏板块大年，我们总结2025年游戏板块的特征是：1）产品线驱动；2）口红效应明显；3）A股游戏公司崛起。回顾2025年的游戏板块，我们看到自2025年4月的产品线低估后，各大游戏选择二季度开始上线重点新品，流水开始起量，带动板块收益率提升。我们认为当前时间点，市场更愿意选择产品线已经成熟的公司进行持仓，即更加愿意“右侧”交易。因此，2025年的游戏板块是在《无尽冬日》《超自然行动组》《三角洲行动》《英雄没有闪》《逃离鸭科夫》《杖剑传说》这些游戏的催化下逐步上涨的。在整体市场风险偏好进一步上涨前，我们认为这样的“右侧”交易思路将在2026年持续。我们认为2026年游戏板块市场规模将同比继续上升，主要原因源自：1）供给端的持续宽松；2）消费端口红效应长期存在；3）各大游戏公司仍处产品周期高峰。供给端来看2025年全年，国家新闻出版总署（下简称版署）共下发新游戏版号数为1771个，其中，国产游戏版号1676个，进口游戏版号95个。版号发放总数同比2024年增长25%，是2022年总量低谷期的3.46倍，已经超越了2020年的版号发放量水平。手机游戏：2025年共计有1729款移动游戏获得版号，其中国产游戏1648款、进口游戏81款，相较于2024年1368款整体增加了26.39%。不出意外，手游仍是过审游戏中最高的类型，在1771个过审游戏中有1729款是手游、或者有手游版，占比超过97%。PC客户端游戏：2025年共计有159款PC客户端游戏获得版号，其中国产游戏127款、进口游戏32款，相较于2024年135款PC游戏获得版号、同比增加了17.78%，大增主要原因是过审多平台游戏中很多有PC客户端版本。可选消费来看2026年国内宏观经济增速或维持在中等水平。根据浙商证券宏观组《直挂云帆济沧海---2026年宏观年度展望》的预测，2026年GDP增速约为4.8%，社零增速约为4.1%，这样的经济增速仍然属于口红效应较为明显的地带，我们继续看好游戏板块的消费热情。整体市场规模判断综上我们认为，2026年各季度游戏板块市场规模仍有高个位数的同比增速，26Q3，即暑假期间有望获得更快增速。这样的假设下，我们预计26Q3游戏板块市场规模有望单季突破900亿元，全年有望达到3570亿元，维持“看好”评级。全球市场：收入TOP 50榜单中，国内公司产品占据TOP 50中的24席? 2025年预估收入TOP 50榜单中，国内公司产品占据TOP 50中的24席，腾讯占据其中12个席位，《王者荣耀》与《和平精英》分别位居榜首和第四位。米哈游则有3款产品上榜，《崩坏：星穹铁道》和《原神》均进入TOP 20。世纪华通有2款产品上榜，《无尽冬日》稳坐收入榜TOP 2，2025年初上线的新游《Kingshot》位居第24位。此外，Playrix有3款产品进入TOP 50，Florere Game、万代南梦宫、DreamGames和Moon Active各自有两款产品。最头部的产品中，2025年预估收入超过百亿的有三款产品，分别为腾讯《王者荣耀》、世纪华通《无尽冬日》和First Fun《Last War》。中国厂商出海：腾讯卫冕，点点高增2025年TOP 30中国手游发行商全球吸金233亿美元，与2024年基本持平，达到全球TOP 100手游发行商收入的35%。腾讯凭借旗下《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《三角洲行动》和《PUBG: MOBILE》等王牌手游的稳定表现，蝉联全球手游发行商收入榜冠军。点点互动在2025年实现多品类爆发式增长，全球收入激增87%，跃居收入榜亚军。策略手游《WhiteoutSurvival》2025年收入同比上涨45%达21亿美元，连续24个月稳坐出海手游收入冠军宝座，累计吸金40亿美元。柠檬微趣2025年收入激增165%，稳坐合成赛道收入冠军宝座，排名跃升4位至发行商收入榜第4名，彰显“爆款复制+差异化创新”的产品策略和成熟商业化运营实力。2025年重度策略游戏正在通过“SLG+X”的融合玩法，打破用户圈层，成为驱动市场增长的关键力量。Sensor Tower数据显示，2025年全球策略手游收入同比劲增20%，超过200亿美元。海外市场增长更为突出，美国、日本和韩国等头部市场分别同比增长24%、33%和20%。二次元游戏市场规模持续攀升，2030年有望超800亿元2025年中国二次元游戏市场呈现“规模分化、质效提升”的特征。根据游戏工委数据，二次元移动游戏收入继2024年下降7.44%后，2025年上半年再降8%，主要受头部产品流水放缓与新品供给不足影响。另一方面，用户规模持续扩容但付费结构升级，00后用户年均ARPU值超200元，对角色皮肤、剧情DLC等虚拟商品的付费率达65%。这一趋势促使厂商在内容更新与IP衍生品开发上投入更多资源。虽然目前出现了结构性调整，但是我们看到原因之一是供给不足，传媒行业是典型的供给创造需求行业，我们认为在经历了一段时间的产品周期底部后，市场规模有望快速复苏。定量来看，根据美鑫可研数据，2026年中国二次元游戏市场规模预计达505亿元，2030年有望达到845亿元左右。同时可以看出，2026-2030年二次元游戏市场规模虽告别高速增长阶段，但在技术赋能、内容升级与全球化战略驱动下，仍将保持稳健扩张态势。中国“二游”全球吸金1月3日，GamingonPhone公布了2025年收入最高的10款二次元手游，其中有5款来自中国厂商，4款来自日本厂商，另一款为韩国厂商研发，但也有中国厂商参与操盘。具体来说，2025年全球收入最高的10款二次元手游依次是：《崩坏：星穹铁道》、《恋与深空》、《原神》、《F/GO》、《赛马娘》、《SD高达G世纪永恒》、《胜利女神：妮姬》、《鸣潮》、《龙珠Z激斗》和《绝区零》。榜单当中最大的赢家当属米哈游，此次有三款游戏位列前十，分别是排名第一的《崩坏：星穹铁道》（4.2亿美元）、排名第三的《原神》（3.29亿美元）和排名第10的《绝区零》（1.67亿美元）。值得注意的是，就在双旦期间，《绝区零》凭借版本更新拿下了国区iOS游戏畅销榜的冠军，帮助米哈游在2025年“圆满收官”。《崩坏：星穹铁道》成为了米哈游的另一个“扛鼎之作”，进入2025年，该游戏表现依旧强势，与2020年上线的《原神》在二次元手游收入榜Top 3会师。叠纸的《恋与深空》上线两年来持续保持在收入高位，并且从2024年下半年开始，多次登顶国区iOS畅销榜总榜，其收入表现纵观整个国内手游市场都位列前排。“SLG+X”品类发展迅猛，成为新时代SLG的主要特征当前时间点，SLG手游面临用户群体固化和同质化严重的问题，“SLG+X”模式应运而生。“X”即“缝合”进其他各类玩法可以大幅提高获客面，平缓的学习曲线，提高留存，中后期再通过SLG玩法提炼用户价值，实现长期付费。根据点金石游戏出海数据，近年来较为火爆的SLG游戏大多为“SLG+X”模式，例如：三七互娱的《Puzzles & Survival》开创性地将三消玩法与SLG结合；《Last War: Survival》《Whiteout Survival》等将模拟经营等玩法与SLG结合。SLG品类为中国游戏出海最重要的品类2025年SLG依然是出海主力。近五成出海收入主要由SLG产品贡献。这其中最具代表性的厂商就是世纪华通旗下的点点互动。据12月发布的《2025年中国游戏产业报告》统计，2025年海外市场收入前100的中国自研移动游戏中，策略类（含SLG）收入占比49.96%，同比上升8.6%，已经连续五年居首位。然而，在国内市场，排名前100的移动游戏中，策略游戏数量（含SLG）占比11%，较去年上升一位，但收入占比9.77%，仅排第四位。世纪华通的点点互动无疑是2025年SLG赛道一道亮眼的存在，核心产品《无尽冬日》上线两年多依然保持着强劲的营收能力。自上线以来，游戏曾连续十个月蝉联Sensor Tower中国手游出海收入榜第一的位置；2025年3月，游戏两周年庆一度登顶全球手游收入榜；截止7月，游戏全球累计流水已经超过28亿美元。除了《无尽冬日》持续发力，点点互动在2025年还跑出了另一款黑马产品Kingshot（国服名《奔奔王国》）。Kingshot同样采用了SLG+X的研发思路，只不过将X从模拟经营换为塔防类玩法。根据36氪数据，游戏自2024年上线海外测试之后就展现出强劲的上升势头，2025年3月收入破千万美元，5月即打入美国iOS畅销榜TOP10，9月营收破1亿美元，全球累计收入超4亿美元。2025年，混合休闲（Hybridcasual）赛道持续升温——它将超休闲游戏的核心循环与休闲游戏的深层系统、变现手段相结合，形成了一条日益成熟的增长路径。根据AppMagic数据，从收入榜中过滤出“超休闲“标签的高收入游戏，更清晰地捕捉到那些通过IAP实现营收、真正跨入混合领域的产品，可以看到：25Q2 Top 10的混合休闲游戏收入同比2024年就已翻倍，到了25Q3，这一势头进一步增强，季度同比增长高达114%。值得注意的是，这一增长依旧主要来自老面孔——头部产品继续保持稳定扩张，新入榜的作品反而比上季度更少。可以看出，混合变现模型具有稳定性与可扩展性。通过在“易上手的玩法”与“深度留存机制”之间取得平衡，这类游戏在节奏快速、潮流瞬息的手游市场中依然能保持较长生命周期。我们认为这样的“易上手的玩法”与“深度留存机制”同样类似“SLG+X”的获客机制。上文所述2026年仍处各大游戏公司产品周期高峰，具体来说，较为重点的新游有：大IP新品《饥困荒野》《盗墓笔记：启程》《斗罗大陆：诛邪传说》《异环》等；搜打撤的《代号：SN》《ARC 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浙商证券：2026年游戏板块市场规模将同比继续上升 重点关注腾讯控股、心动公司等

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浙商证券：2026年游戏板块市场规模将同比继续上升重点关注腾讯控股、心动公司等