2025年车市销量创新高，TOP5车企“吃掉”半数天下

21世纪经济报道01-15

2025年，中国汽车市场在结构性增长中再创新高。　　根据中国汽车工业协会（下称“中汽协”）在1月14日披露的数据，2025年，中国汽车产销分别完成3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，连续17年位居全球第一。　　中汽协副秘书长陈士华指出，过去五年，中国汽车产销规模已从约2500万辆跃升至超3400万辆，行业营业收入突破10万亿元。　　结构性增长最显著的体现是新能源车的...

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world","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"00175":1.88,"EVS.SI":0.6,"BYDDY":1.95,"NIO.SI":1.79,"01211":1.95,"HYDD.SI":0.6,"002594":1.95,"GELYY":1.88},"content_text":"2025年，中国汽车市场在结构性增长中再创新高。　　根据中国汽车工业协会（下称“中汽协”）在1月14日披露的数据，2025年，中国汽车产销分别完成3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，连续17年位居全球第一。　　中汽协副秘书长陈士华指出，过去五年，中国汽车产销规模已从约2500万辆跃升至超3400万辆，行业营业收入突破10万亿元。　　结构性增长最显著的体现是新能源车的引领。2025年，新能源汽车国内销量达1387.5万辆，同比增长19.8%，增速远超行业整体。其中新能源乘用车渗透率高达54%，意味着每卖出两辆乘用车，至少有一辆是新能源车。　　中国品牌成为增长的另一核心引擎。2025年中国品牌乘用车销量达2093.6万辆，同比增长16.5%，市占率升至69.5%，较2024年同期提升4.3个百分点。这一份额创下自2018年以来的历史新高。　　这一成绩的取得，并非依靠过往激烈的“价格战”。乘联分会秘书长崔东树曾发文表示，2025年乘用车行业促销与降价行为均回归理性，市场秩序明显改善。数据显示，2025年前十个月上市新车中仅156款降价，规模相对温和。　　增长主要来自政策引导与需求释放。崔东树分析，“以旧换新”等国家促消费政策发挥决定性作用，有效激发了增换购需求。　　尽管规模持续扩张，汽车行业的盈利水平仍面临压力。根据中国汽车流通协会发布的数据，2025年1-11月，汽车行业收入突破10万亿元，利润达4403亿元，同比增长7.5%，但行业利润率为4.4%，仍低于下游工业企业6%的平均水平。　　在销量与份额增长的同时，汽车行业的盈利能力仍有提升空间。　　得主流市场者得天下　　中汽协披露的数据显示，在2406.5万辆的乘用车大盘中，新能源与燃油车的走势已然分野。2025年新能源乘用车国内销量1300.5万辆，同比增长17.7%；而传统燃油乘用车销量则下滑至1106万辆，同比减少4.3%。　　市场的天平向新能源倾斜，而天平的重心，则牢牢落在了10万至20万元的主流家用价格带上。这一区间是家庭消费的基盘，也是竞争最激烈的“红海”。2025年，10万至20万元价格区间新能源车型累计销量达694.1万辆，同比大涨24%，占据了整个新能源乘用车销量的半壁江山。　　与之形成对比的是，30万-40万元价格区间销量同比下降，其他价格区间销量均呈正增长趋势。 　　这一现象的背后，是主流家庭用户对新能源的接纳。推动这一转变的核心力量，并非仅仅是价格，而是由以比亚迪、吉利、长安等为代表的传统车企巨头以及零跑、小鹏等新势力车企，对曾经由合资燃油车把持的腹地，用产品所发起的饱和式攻击。　　10万至20万元价格区间一直是比亚迪的舒适区。2025年，比亚迪用增配智能辅助驾驶功能的方式来巩固其统治力。比亚迪披露的数据显示，2025年，王朝和海洋网牢牢掌控着10万-20万元主流市场，其新车销量分别为188.5万辆和222万辆，两网销量占比亚迪总销量的近九成。　　吉利的攻势则由银河品牌主导。2025年，银河系列推出了覆盖轿车与SUV的多款车型，其中智能纯电轿车银河E8起售价下探至17.58万元，而大六座SUV银河M9则以20万元以内的价格提供了空气悬架等越级配置。根据吉利控股发布的数据，银河品牌2025年销量为124万辆，同比增长150%，拉升吉利新能源渗透率从2024年的45%飙升至56%。　　新势力同样在此寸土必争。零跑通过“极致性价比”在10万-20万元市场站稳脚跟，将激光雷达、8295芯片等高端配置打入15万元乃至12万元级市场，凭借“高配平价”的B10、C10等车型击中主流消费痛点；小鹏则实施“技术降维”，将中大型纯电轿车P7+的起售价拉低至18.68万元，以智能驾驶体验抢夺市场份额。　　动力路线的竞争也出现新变化。根据中汽协披露的数据，2025年全年，纯电动车型的销量为1062.2万辆，约占1649万辆新能源新车市场大盘的六成，同比增长37.6%。 　　TOP15车企销量占比达92.3％　　放大视角看整个2025年中国车市的成绩单，中国新能源汽车市场的竞争图谱在“强者恒强”的基调下，依旧在分化。　　根据中汽协统计的榜单，比亚迪、上汽、吉利揽获2025年新车销量前三，三家市场份额达到36.6%。销量前15名的汽车公司或集团销量合计为3174.1万辆，同比增长9.1%，已经占据中国车市销量的92.3%。 　　比亚迪以全年460.24万辆的销量卫冕冠军。在全球市场，比亚迪以225.67万辆的纯电动汽车销量，超越特斯拉，登顶全球纯电动汽车年度销量冠军。　　海外市场销量助力比亚迪稳固中国市场及全球市场销冠地位。2025年，比亚迪海外销量同比激增145%，首次突破百万辆大关。中汽协分析指出，与2024年同期相比，比亚迪出口增速最为显著，出口达105.4万辆，同比增长1.4倍。　　排名第二的上汽集团全年销量为438.7万辆，同比增长12.4%。在合资板块承压的背景下，其自主品牌与新能源车成为增长支柱，根据上汽披露的数据，2025年，上汽自主品牌销量达到292.8万辆，同比增长21.6%，占集团总销量的65%。2025年，上汽的策略一方面稳住市场基本盘，另一方面在智能驾驶与高端电动化领域加大投入，试图构建新的技术壁垒。　　吉利汽车则以359.8万辆的销量和37.5%的同比增速，成为前三强中增长最迅猛的品牌。其高增长主要得益于全面新能源化与多品牌高端化战略的并行推进。银河系列在主流市场快速上量，极氪品牌在高端市场站稳脚跟，后者年销量为22.4万辆。　　在新势力阵营中，2025年的主题是“筛选”，能够跻身销量榜TOP15的造车新势力仅剩零跑与小鹏，其年销量分别为59.7万辆和42.9万辆。　　零跑的路径是“技术普惠”与成本控制。它不仅夺得2025年新势力年度销冠，更以104.7%的同比增速成为最大黑马。其核心战略是通过“全域自研”，将占整车成本65%的核心技术掌握在自己手中。　　小鹏在最核心的智能长板上做饱和投入，并以此驱动产品销量。2025年，小鹏全年交付量同比增长126%，位列新势力第三。其成功依靠两条清晰的产品线，即MONA M03和P7+，在20万元以下的纯电市场凭借智能化标签站稳脚跟。　　当视角聚焦于新能源汽车本身时，市场的集中现象更为突出。中汽协披露的数据显示，2025年新能源汽车销量前十五名的集团，合计销量为1566.9万辆，占据整个新能源车市95%的份额。　　这意味着，随着2026年新能源汽车购置税优惠政策的进一步退坡，市场驱动力将更加依赖于真实的产品力和用户口碑。　　中汽协预计2026年销量微增1％　　2026年，“十五五”的开局哨声已吹响，行业机构对车市的预判均透露出审慎的信号。　　根据中汽协的预判，2026年，中国汽车市场的总销量仅同比微增1%至3475万辆，其中新能源汽车依旧能保持15.2%的增长至1900万辆；车百会理事长张永伟预判，2026年国内汽车销量将进入“高销量低增长周期”，预计实现约2%的微增长；乘联分会的预测则更为审慎，认为全年乘用车市场将呈现“前高中低后高”的U型走势，总体销量可能与2025年持平。 　　政策仍是关键变量。乘联分会分析认为，2025年12月30日发布的《2026年大规模设备更新与消费品以旧换新政策通知》，有望为年初车市提供支撑。同时，将于2026年7月起实施的《电动汽车用动力蓄电池安全要求》新国标，将促使部分车企提前清理旧款库存，而符合更高安全与能量密度标准的新车型，可能成为换购市场的优先选择，拉动中高端需求。　　市场增长放缓，但竞争的烈度却在指数级攀升。　　传统巨头的2026年销量目标稳健中暗藏锋芒。吉利汽车直接锚定了345万辆的明确目标，其王牌是过去一年同比增长150%的银河品牌；长安汽车将目标设定在330万辆，并计划在2026年密集推出11款全新车型以覆盖各个细分市场；奇瑞集团的目标是320万辆，其连续23年出口第一的成绩，是冲击目标的最大依仗；东风公司设定总销量目标为325万辆，其中新能源车170万辆，出口60万辆；长城汽车则将销量目标与核心团队激励直接绑定，根据其2025年12月24日通过的员工持股计划草案，2026年的考核目标之一为，销量不低于180万辆。　　相比之下，新势力与跨界力量的销量目标则更具侵略性。零跑汽车意图实现从黑马到巨头的跨越，宣布2026年挑战100万辆；小米汽车的2026年销量目标是55万辆，同比增长34%；蔚来汽车则将目标区间定为45.64万至48.9万辆，增幅最高可达50%。　　然而，高目标对应的是高风险。摩根大通甚至预测，2026年中国汽车销量可能面临3%-5%的下滑压力。一场为存量而战的竞赛，已经打响。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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