李宁2025Q4流水符合预期，营运稳健

国盛证券01-16

事件：李宁发布2025Q4经营情况公告，期内李宁流水同比下降低单位数，其中线下渠道流水下降中单位数，电商流水同比持平。李宁成人：消费环境波动导致线下销售承压，电商业务销售持平。我们判断2025Q4奥莱渠道表现优异，直营渠道流水表现好于批发渠道。1)批发业务：2025Q4批发业务流水同比下降中单位数，截止2025Q4末批发门店数量为4853家(对比年初净开33家)，我们判断公司持续对空白市场进行加密...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260116143122a721ae64&s=b><strong>国盛证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>事件：李宁发布2025Q4经营情况公告，期内李宁流水同比下降低单位数，其中线下渠道流水下降中单位数，电商流水同比持平。李宁成人：消费环境波动导致线下销售承压，电商业务销售持平。我们判断2025Q4奥莱渠道表现优异，直营渠道流水表现好于批发渠道。1)批发业务：2025Q4批发业务流水同比下降中单位数，截止2025Q4末批发门店数量为4853家(对比年初净开33家)，我们判断公司持续对空白市场进行加密...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260116143122a721ae64&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0541502299.USD","symbol_name":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"I\" (USD) 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stable","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82331":0.9,"02331":1.5,"LNNGY":0.6},"content_text":"事件：李宁发布2025Q4经营情况公告，期内李宁流水同比下降低单位数，其中线下渠道流水下降中单位数，电商流水同比持平。李宁成人：消费环境波动导致线下销售承压，电商业务销售持平。我们判断2025Q4奥莱渠道表现优异，直营渠道流水表现好于批发渠道。1)批发业务：2025Q4批发业务流水同比下降中单位数，截止2025Q4末批发门店数量为4853家(对比年初净开33家)，我们判断公司持续对空白市场进行加密，然而由于客流的波动，同店销售或有一定挑战。2)直营业务：2025Q4直营流水同比下降低单位数，截止2025Q4末李宁直营门店数量为1238家(对比年初净关59家)，门店关闭以及客流波动对流水造成负面压力，但我们判断受益于奥莱等业态的优异表现，直营表现好于批发。2025Q4电商流水同比持平，短期电商大盘销售环境波动。2025Q4电商业务流水同比持平，其中我们预计抖音渠道增速或较好，中长期公司持续推进电商业务效率优化，通过合理的货品结构推动电商业务健康运营。李宁YOUNG：2025Q4童装业务或延续稳健增长态势。截至2025Q4末李宁YOUNG门店为1518家(对比年初净开50家)，从流水层面来看我们预计童装业务或有增长表现，表现优于成人，公司强化童装业务推广，同时优化产品结构。2025Q4末库销比预计在4-5之间，处于健康水平。此前的报告中我们提到出于对“国庆”、“中秋”双节以及“双十一大促”的备货需要，2025Q3末库销比或在5-6之间，然而经过Q4的多次大促和库存去化后，我们预计到年底库销比或已经回到4-5之间的健康水平。我们预计公司2025年归母净利润27.42亿元，2026年多维度营销举措开展，同时新店型逐步试水。基于全年的销售表现，我们预计公司2025年收入略有增长，归母净利润同比下降9%至27.42亿元。2026年以来公司在国内多地陆续开设““店店”快闪店展示荣耀金标系列产品，同时随着冬奥会的临近，李宁品牌登陆米兰时装周提升产品以及品牌曝光，2026年我们预计公司将加大对于奥运相关活动以及各运动品类的赞助力度，同时推动新店型“店店”试水，在产品层面跑步、综训或仍是公司销售主打，荣耀金标系列的推出也有望带来销售增量，综合来看我们预计公司2026年收入增长6.5%，归母净利润增长5.8%至29.01亿元。盈利预测和投资建议：综合考虑短期消费环境的不确定性以及公司长期经营效率的不断提升，我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润为27.42/29.01/32.00亿元，对应2026年PE为16倍，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：消费环境波动，盈利能力提升速度不达预期，门店优化不及预期等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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