19年以来最火热的信贷市场暗流涌动! AI巨头发债狂欢或将掀起股债回调风暴

智通财经01-16

智通财经APP获悉，以高评级公司债券以及高收益率公司债(也被称作垃圾债)为核心的全球信贷市场正处于二十年来最火热的状态，这促使包括Aberdeen投资公司和太平洋投资管理公司(即Pimco)在内的全球最大规模资金管理公司纷纷发出警告，提醒火热的信贷市场以及近期涨势如虹且屡创新高的股票市场不要掉以轻心——毕竟信贷市场最火热之际往往容易出现信贷利差突然走阔，进而导致公司债价格暴跌以及风险资产(股市)...

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AI巨头发债狂欢或将掀起股债回调风暴\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-16 14:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1393767.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，以高评级公司债券以及高收益率公司债(也被称作垃圾债)为核心的全球信贷市场正处于二十年来最火热的状态，这促使包括Aberdeen投资公司和太平洋投资管理公司(即Pimco)在内的全球最大规模资金管理公司纷纷发出警告，提醒火热的信贷市场以及近期涨势如虹且屡创新高的股票市场不要掉以轻心——毕竟信贷市场最火热之际往往容易出现信贷利差突然走阔，进而导致公司债价格暴跌以及风险资产(股市)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1393767.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1935042991.SGD","symbol_name":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1393767.html","article_id":"2603950919","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603950919","pubTimestamp":1768546699,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"然而，目前信贷市场的乐观情绪也推动了风险更大的债务资产。据了解，Pimco固定收益团队由于预计信贷市场基本面与信用利差将恶化，对于信贷市场的部署资金方向正在变得更加挑剔。市场焦虑的核心，集中于AI投资逻辑本身。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0314106906.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - 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AI giants' bond issuance carnival may set off a storm of stock and bond corrections","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.86,"ORCL":1.95,"MSFT":1.87},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，以高评级公司债券以及高收益率公司债(也被称作垃圾债)为核心的全球信贷市场正处于二十年来最火热的状态，这促使包括Aberdeen投资公司和太平洋投资管理公司(即Pimco)在内的全球最大规模资金管理公司纷纷发出警告，提醒火热的信贷市场以及近期涨势如虹且屡创新高的股票市场不要掉以轻心——毕竟信贷市场最火热之际往往容易出现信贷利差突然走阔，进而导致公司债价格暴跌以及风险资产(股市)估值遭修正。根据机构最新汇编的跨货币和所有评级债券指数，全球企业债务的收益溢价(信用利差的一种表现形式)已经收窄至103个基点，这是自2007年6月以来的最低水平，这一现象通常出现在强劲的经济增长前景以及类似“互联网时代”的科技大变革背景之下。然而，随着企业发债规模，尤其是甲骨文、微软以及Meta这样的科技公司发债规模愈发庞大且可能创历史纪录，可能推动信用利差大幅走阔。这一乐观且火热的市场构成了一种悖论。资金管理者们不希望错过公司债配置机遇，但他们也必须接受在面临日益增加的潜在风险(比如不可预测的美国财政与关税政策、地缘政治紧张局势以及甲骨文等AI算力产业链领军者创纪录发债、愈发庞大债务压力引发的企业突然倒闭)背景之下，获得的潜在回报以及风险补偿已经变得更少。“在风险市场中，‘掉以轻心’应该是目前最令人恐惧的词汇。”Aberdeen投资公司的固定收益投资总监Luke Hickmore表示。“你所能做的就是不要过于押注高风险信用债领域。”目前，许多资金管理者仍然继续加入这波上涨，部分原因是市场预期美联储和其他一些央行将继续降息步伐。此类宽松政策环境可能有助于全球经济应对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普持续发起的关税威胁。本周早些时候，世界银行将全球实际GDP的增长预期上调至2.6%，凸显出世行看好AI热潮强化全球经济增长韧性以及美国经济在特朗普政府“大而美法案”推动下的软着陆前景。在央行系统内，政策制定者们必须平衡维持这一增长势头与防止通货膨胀再次加速的努力。由于美国司法部正在对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔展开调查，这一棘手的平衡问题彻底进入了公众视野。这位美联储主席表示，刑事指控的威胁源自美联储基于最佳评估设定利率，而不是遵循特朗普政府要求更多降息的强迫政策偏好。然而，目前信贷市场的乐观情绪也推动了风险更大的债务资产。投资者们所要求持有垃圾债券的额外收益率指标已经降至近二十年来的最低点，反映出市场对于经济增长前景愈发乐观以及对于高收益率公司债的违约预期持续降温。警惕!甲骨文等科技公司主导的发债狂潮，或将推动信用利差走阔“强劲的近期投资回报，反而加剧了市场的‘掉以轻心’情绪，”来自固定收益投资巨头太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)的资深分析师Tiffany Wilding和Andrew Balls在本月的研究报告中写道。据了解，Pimco固定收益团队由于预计信贷市场基本面与信用利差将恶化，对于信贷市场的部署资金方向正在变得更加挑剔。毋庸置疑的是，以甲骨文为首的那些与AI算力基础设施密切相关联的科技公司正在迅速提高发债规模，这种动态若长期持续，无疑将大幅推高信贷市场信用利差。在固定收益分析中，信用利差被视作风险偏好和经济预期的重要“早期预警信号”;因此当信用利差走阔，往往意味着投资者们对信用风险更为谨慎，需要更高补偿，最终市场避险情绪将大幅上升。当前公司债发行规模(尤其投机级债与高收益债)大幅上升，2026年企业债供应预计继续创高纪录，其中美国大型科技公司以及与AI算力基础设施相关企业债发行尤甚(例如亚马逊AWS / Meta /甲骨文/CoreWeave等科技公司们大规模发债)——这说明市场对廉价资金需求极大。大规模债务供应在低利差环境以及投资者们对于AI乐观情绪之下被市场吸收没问题，但如果遇到利率变动、经济放缓或者是这些科技公司基本面迅速恶化，抑或比11月严峻得多的“AI泡沫”危机彻底席卷债市，所有类型公司债将变得更敏感、更易出现估值调整或下跌。据Dealogic数据显示，截至2025年12月第一周，全球科技公司在2025年已发行了创纪录的4283亿美元债券。其中美国公司债券发行规模高达3418亿美元，欧洲和亚洲科技公司则分别发行了491亿美元和330亿美元，这三大市场的发债规模均来到历史高位。对于甲骨文等全球最大规模云计算服务商们而言，不仅要承受利息压力，还面临订单高度依赖单一大客户(如OpenAI)的结构性风险。来自Ninety One的多元资产收益主管John Stopford指出，当借贷热潮与新债供给同时涌现，借款成本的上升将直接压缩盈利空间，最终可能戳破市场对AI繁荣的过度想象。根据机构汇编的数据，今年1月上半年，全球企业发行了大约4350亿美元的债券，成功创下该期间的新历史纪录，比去年同期多出三分之一。高盛集团周四通过史上最大规模的投资级债券发行，筹集了160亿美元，这是华尔街银行历史上最大规模的债务发行量，因此不少分析师预计2026年将成为债券发行规模创纪录的一年。迄今为止，债券供应的激增并未引发显著回撤或者信用利差走阔。这使得2026年全球股债市场开局强劲，延续了过去三年美元计价的投资级和垃圾债券相较10年期美国国债的超额回报。但如果其他风险(比如新一轮的AI泡沫危机)在后期爆发，打破市场的乐观情绪，债务的大量供应可能会让投资者感到恐慌。若信贷利差突然间大幅走阔，可能导致股票市场步入回调轨迹自10月末“AI泡沫论调”席卷全球金融市场，加之自2025年下半年以来Meta、亚马逊以及甲骨文在内的美国科技巨头们大举借贷发债狂潮以及私人信贷市场显露出的恐慌情绪与流动性压力迹象，正在吓退向全球最高评级企业放贷的债券市场资金流，这一趋势可能大幅推高融资成本进而大幅打击全球企业盈利，并为本就紧张不安的信贷市场增添新的抛售压力。市场焦虑的核心，集中于AI投资逻辑本身。前不久由ChatGPT开发者OpenAI主导的“AI循环投资”越来越夸张以及甲骨文等巨头史无前例大规模举债推动AI数据中心建设危及财务基本面，导致市场愈发担忧“AI泡沫即将破裂”，毕竟多数投资者暂时不相信年营收不到200亿美元的OpenAI能够承担起1.4万亿美元AI基建开支——尽管OpenAI有能力不断拉来百亿美元级别融资，但是市场仍然更看重实际创收。随着时间推移，市场对“AI泡沫正在成形、且距离破裂并不遥远”的担忧持续升温。这一情绪已开始反映在主流机构观点中。比如太平洋投资管理公司(即Pimco)警告信贷市场切勿自满，以及高盛近日发布的研报显示，那些投入最多资金以期望赢得这场AI装备竞赛的大型科技企业，可能在相当长时间内面临高度不确定的投资回报率。在AI算力基础设施竞赛白热化的背景下，即便是现金充裕的高评级科技公司也不得不大规模举债来支持相关投资。摩根士丹利预测，到2028年全球超大规模AI数据中心总投资约2.9万亿美元，其中超半数(约1.5万亿美元)需依赖外部融资。这种近乎豪赌的资本开支，让原本稳健的资产负债表承受了巨大压力，债市嗅觉敏锐的投资者开始重新评估甲骨文等科技公司的违约风险。信用利差收窄通常意味着市场对经济与公司债务偿付能力的信心很强，但这也留给市场极其有限的风险缓冲空间。一旦市场风险偏好突然转向负面、甲骨文等大规模发债的科技公司基本面迅速恶化，又或者是债市流动性因创纪录发债规模而收紧，利差容易快速走阔(widen)，意味着债券价格可能持续下跌。利差突然走阔往往预示着股票、加密货币等风险资产面临回调压力。这一逻辑在市场风险框架中是标准的风险重估路径，不是无的放矢的恐慌预测，而是基于债市与股市历史关联的合理担忧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603950919","isCrawlerRequest":true}