万亿人形机器人赛道，哪个环节最可能爆发？

蓝鲸财经01-16

文丨市值观察徐风2025年，人形机器人的火爆贯穿全年，在资本市场也备受关注，万得行业指数年度涨幅超过60%。近期，在云深处启动上市辅导、优必选收购事项等催化下板块再度爆发。随着特斯拉Optimus03将于一季度亮相，优必选、宇树科技等相继迈入万台产能时代，均指向产业将迎来规模化量产跃迁。【量产拐点临近】2025年被称为人形机器人商业化元年，从春晚舞台到比赛竞技，再到文娱商演、工业智造、物流分拣、...

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explode?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601100":1.92,"603667":1.9,"TSLG":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"TSLS":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6},"content_text":"文丨市值观察 徐风2025年，人形机器人的火爆贯穿全年，在资本市场也备受关注，万得行业指数年度涨幅超过60%。近期，在云深处启动上市辅导、优必选收购事项等催化下板块再度爆发。随着特斯拉Optimus03将于一季度亮相，优必选、宇树科技等相继迈入万台产能时代，均指向产业将迎来规模化量产跃迁。【量产拐点临近】2025年被称为人形机器人商业化元年，从春晚舞台到比赛竞技，再到文娱商演、工业智造、物流分拣、安防巡检等，产业加速落地。进入2026年，产品的快速迭代和商业化逐步验证，量产成了行业关键词。去年，马斯克说公司未来80%的市值将来自机器人，2026年将建成年产百万台的专用生产线，2026年计划对外交付5-10万台。Figure计划在2026年实现1.2万台产能，并计划在四年内具备年产10万台的生产能力。国内方面，2026年宇树科技、智元机器人和优必选的产能也将达到万台以上。此外，终端需求起量也是行业即将步入量产阶段的一大印证。2025年头部玩家的销售额从千万级跃升至十亿级，其中优必选全年的订单总额逼近14亿，宇树科技总额近12亿，越疆、智元、云深处均在10亿级别。这得益于成本的下降。一直以来，成本始终是制约人形机器人量产的重要因素，特斯拉Optimus 03预计单台成本有望降至2万美元以内，较初代原型机降幅超60%。在这场全球人形机器人产业的角逐中，国内凭借政策红利和供应链优势，已经建立起相对于海外的成本壁垒。据摩根士丹利研究，2025年利用中国供应链制造一台人形机器人BOM成本约为4.6万美元，非中国供应链的成本则要高达近13万美元。目前，人形机器人市场正处在快速增长的行业爆发期，据GGII数据，中国人形机器人市场规模到2030年将达到近380亿元，2024-2030年的复合增长率将超过61%，销量也将从0.4万台左右增长至27.12万台。据摩根士丹利预测，随着物理AI从概念走向规模化应用，将催生人形机器人万亿级产业浪潮，预计到2050年市场规模将达到5万亿美元，全球部署量有望达到10亿台。那么，哪个环节会更受益于量产的爆发？【为何是丝杠？】人形机器人主要由感知层、决策层和执行层三方面组成，其中感知层包括摄像头、毫米波雷达等传感器；决策层为机器人大脑，主要为AI芯片、大模型等。而执行层才是人形机器人的成本大头，也就是整机硬件部分，包括丝杠、电机、减速器、传感器、轴承等。其中丝杠是轴端电机旋转运动转化为直线运动的核心部件，主要用于膝关节、髋关节、手臂等关键部位。浙商证券曾做过一次测算，包括行星滚珠丝杠、T型丝杠在内的线性执行器价值量占比达19.4%，是整机价值量最大的环节，同时制造壁垒也较高，是推动行业量产的痛点之一。在丝杠环节，主要分为滑动丝杠、滚动丝杠和静压丝杠三大类，滚动丝杠在人形机器人领域的适配性更高，包含滚珠丝杠和行星滚柱丝杠。相比滚珠丝杠，行星滚柱丝杠在精度、承载能力、使用寿命和调节能力等维度上具备明显优势。行星滚柱丝杠与滚珠丝杠的主要区别在于负载的传递单元是螺纹滚柱而不是滚珠，能够接触更长的线面，在同等规格下的额定载重能力是滚珠丝杠的3-6倍，寿命可达10-15倍，体积可缩小约1/3，也更为轻巧，随着技术的日益成熟将是人形机器人未来的主流方案，而滚珠丝杠在工业领域的应用更为广泛。目前行星滚柱丝杠价格昂贵，也是未来降本的重要方向。据华鑫证券研究，应用在特斯拉Optimus的行星滚柱丝杠单价约2000元/个，而滚珠丝杠价格则在200-600元之间。国金证券指出，特斯拉第三代Optimus的灵巧手自由度将从上一代的11个提升至22个，意味着单机或需要44根丝杠。同时包括宇树科技、智元机器人等多家企业也发布了20个左右自由度的灵巧手产品，灵巧手的升级必然拉动丝杠产业的市场空间。据华鑫证券研究，到2030年应用在人形机器人的行星滚柱丝杠价值量将达229.6亿元，CAGR达154.1%。在行业竞争格局上，行星滚柱丝杠由于壁垒较高，主要涉及在材料与热处理、精密加工、装配与检测等多个方面，目前主要以海外厂商主导。据华西证券研究，2022年前四大海外供应商市占率约78%，国内南京工艺、济宁博特的市场份额分别仅约为8%，国产替代空间较大。随着灵巧手的升级叠加产业放量，国内相关厂商将显著受益。【行业爆发期，谁将胜出？】在布局丝杠的国内厂商中，主要是五洲新春、恒立液压以及北特科技。其中，五洲新春以轴承、空调管路件等汽车精密零部件为主营业务，近年来重点布局行星滚柱丝杠和微型丝杠作为新增长曲线。五洲新春布局丝杠业务较早，早在2021年就开始研发汽车转向系统丝杠螺母组件，目前已成功进入特斯拉、博世等巨头供应链，并拿下了长安汽车旗下辰致科技的定点订单。2024年全年丝杠业务收入为613万元，2025年上半年为270万，在整体销售占比尚不足1%。恒立液压作为国内液压油缸的绝对龙头，2021年定增募资14亿元用于线性驱动器项目进军丝杠领域。北特科技以汽车底盘零部件为核心，近年来开始聚焦行星滚柱丝杠业务。三家公司在丝杠技术层面均有突破，且各有侧重。就比如五洲新春主攻微型化与精度极限，研发的反向式行星滚柱丝杠精度达C5级，接近国际领先水平，成本仅为日本THK的1/3，并且突破了1.8毫米微型滚珠丝杠的技术瓶颈。北特科技依托底盘零部件工艺，在螺纹加工、精度控制等方面具备先天优势，与优必选、智元机器人等合作开发的灵巧手微型丝杠，精度同样达C5级。恒立液压的产品形态以“电机+丝杠+缸体”集成的电动缸为主，而非单一零部件。在人形机器人的放量前夜，产能进度是决定企业受益程度的关键。三家之中恒立液压的进度最快，2021年定增的年产10.4万根标准滚珠丝杠电动缸、4500根重载滚珠丝杠电动缸等产线已于2024年投产，子公司恒立精密年产66万米标准滚珠丝杠和42.2万米精密滚珠丝杠项目预计于2025年11月投产，并且目前已经进入到特斯拉供应链体系。据国联证券研究，恒立液压的丝杠产品线年工业总产值将超过30亿。反观五洲新春和北特科技，产能释放则相对较晚，其中五洲新春2025年12月通过的10亿元的丝杠定增项目，包括建设行星滚柱丝杠98万套，微型滚珠丝杠210万套等，建设期为3年。叠加此前的募投产能共计可配套约8万台人形机器人和135万台智能汽车的丝杠产能，对应年产值在20亿元以上。北特科技于2024年投资18.5亿元建设昆山研发生产基地，2025年底完工后预计2026年实现量产，将具备260万套行星滚柱丝杠的年产能，结合泰国80万套行星滚柱丝杠项目的推进，完工后产能合计将达到340万套。在财务和成长性对比上，恒立液压体量最大，是妥妥的白马蓝筹股。2025年前三季度三家的营业收入虽然均在十亿级别，但净利润率却相差甚远，恒立液压、五洲新春以及北特科技分别为26.85%、4.1%和5.67%，盈利能力差异明显。近年来，恒立液压的盈利增长较为稳健，受益于工程机械行业的复苏2022年以来业绩稳步增长。五洲新春和北特科技的增速波动较大，北特科技增速更快。五洲新春自2023年便陷入负增长，2025年前三季度近乎平增，增长动能较为乏力。综合来看，就产能进度来说恒立液压排在三者首位，两次投产均已达产，具备产能先发优势。五洲新春当下的业务收入较小，募投项目的大规模投产预计要到2027年后，而北特科技2026年产能就将释放。因此，2026年随着行业进入放量期，恒立液压会率先受益。同时北特科技凭借对行星滚柱丝杠的聚焦和更大的产能规模在业绩上将更具弹性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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