东方证券：维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)“买入”评级 AI驱动阿里云有望继续加速

智通财经01-15

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)“买入”评级，预测公司FY2026-2028营业收入为10307/11432/12518亿元，经调整净利润为916/1358/1761亿元。参考可比公司估值倍数，分部估值计算公司市值为35656亿元，对应每股价值207.7港元(人民币兑港币汇率1.113)。AI驱动阿里云有望继续加速，电商承压闪购稳健减亏，大消费战略坚定协同并进...

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Securities: Maintain Alibaba-W (09988) \"buy\" rating AI-driven Alibaba Cloud is expected to continue to accelerate","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"BABA":1.96,"09988":1.96,"HBBD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持阿里巴巴-W(09988)“买入”评级，预测公司FY2026-2028营业收入为10307/11432/12518亿元，经调整净利润为916/1358/1761亿元。参考可比公司估值倍数，分部估值计算公司市值为35656亿元，对应每股价值207.7港元(人民币兑港币汇率1.113)。AI驱动阿里云有望继续加速，电商承压闪购稳健减亏，大消费战略坚定协同并进。东方证券主要观点如下：中国电商：行业寒冬电商降速，闪购决心不改亏损有所加大1)电商：该行预计FY26Q3实现CMR1054.8亿元(yoy+3.4%)。Q4以来随着国补进入高基数期，叠加投流税政策影响行业整体增速出现下滑。根据国家统计局数据，2025年10/11月实物商品网上零售额增速分别为4.9%/1.5%，环比-2.4/-3.4pcts明显降速。公司层面本季度上调0.6%佣金率对CMR的促进作用亦完全拉平基数，预计26H1高基数期内仍有所承压。2)即时零售：该行测算FY26Q3公司即时零售业务亏损在215亿元左右，单均亏损在3.7元(从预期4.0元上调)。本季度UE环比明显改善减亏趋势符合预期，且份额与订单结构维持健康水平。淘宝闪购作为重要的高频消费场景，对淘天生态流量及用户留存活跃具有重要意义，履约侧也可协同中远场电商提高履约效率。该行认为淘闪业务进展顺利，公司投入意愿较为坚定，对市场份额的维持力度不会轻易减少，看好中长期淘闪减亏潜力与单量、用户增长对主站电商业务增长的协同效应。云智能集团：环比再加速&外部收入提速，AI驱动云为阿里打开估值空间该行预期FY26Q3云智能集团实现收入434.9亿元(yoy+37.0%)环比继续提速，且外部收入环比Q2亦有明显加速。本季度来自AI云需求增长仍持续高速释放，且公司自25Q3以来持续加大对AI应用的投入力度，千问、夸克APP以及淘天AI万能搜等生态内应用有望进一步拓宽公司AI应用场景，推动阿里云需求进一步增长。阿里云作为国内唯一全栈AI布局的云计算公司，有望产生算力降本-模型提云需求&拓应用场景-应用拉动云增长的飞轮效应，实现收入利润的双端高增。该行预计阿里云收入仍有提速空间，且利润率将维持稳健微增趋势。看好阿里云再提速下迎来收入估值的戴维斯双击潜力，有望打开公司向上空间。其他分部：AIDC继续减亏，新业务加大投入该行预计AIDC分部FY26Q3亏损为18.9亿元，主要系黑五等大促活动投入加大导致的季节性亏损，利润导向不变预计AIDC将延续减亏趋势。该行预计所有其他分部FY26Q3亏损71.2亿元，主要系AI模型训练开支增加及AI ToC&端侧应用如千问app、夸克AI眼镜等产品的投入加大。公司持续完善AI产品布局并加大C端AI业务投入，前瞻卡位AI时代的C端用户入口，上线两个月MAU已突破1亿，该行看好阿里C端AI应用的入口潜力，有望为后续阿里AI生态的用户增长打下良好基础。模型领先AI应用场景不断拓展，看好阿里AI应用突破潜力阿里模型研发实力强强劲，且正在加速对模型多模态与agent能力的提升，1月8日发布Qwen3-VLEmbedding与Reranker模型再度强化多模态理解与检索能力。1月15日发布会将再对千问APP的任务执行和agent能力进行升级，预计Qwen3.5、Qwen4等模型大版本更新有望在26年内陆续推出，随着模型能力增强叠加在AI应用侧的投入力度加大，公司可进一步拓展AI应用场景，看好公司原生AI应用突破潜力与AI对公司生态内其他业务赋能潜力。风险提示闪购业务进展不及预期、行业竞争加剧、资本投入回报不及预期、宏观经济不景气。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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