泡沫挤完了？Meta的“估值坑”里有没有黄金？

美港股观察社01-13

作者：Stone Fox Capital编译：美港股观察社去年夏季，受人工智能热潮推动，Meta股价一度飙升至800美元，估值出现过热迹象。尽管该社交媒体巨头在人工智能领域的落地成效未达市场预期，但凭借稳固的传统业务基本盘，当前股价回落至640美元，估值性价比显著提升。经过本轮低位盘整，叠加公司已显现收缩元宇宙业务巨额投入的信号，Meta是否值得投资者刮目相看？人工智能业务进展不及预期市场对...

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Is there gold in Meta's \"valuation pit\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.98},"content_text":"作者：Stone Fox Capital编译：美港股观察社去年夏季，受人工智能热潮推动，Meta股价一度飙升至800美元，估值出现过热迹象。尽管该社交媒体巨头在人工智能领域的落地成效未达市场预期，但凭借稳固的传统业务基本盘，当前股价回落至640美元，估值性价比显著提升。经过本轮低位盘整，叠加公司已显现收缩元宇宙业务巨额投入的信号，Meta是否值得投资者刮目相看？人工智能业务进展不及预期市场对Meta的担忧主要集中在两点：一是人工智能领域投入过高，二是相关业务团队交付成果未达预期。尽管人工智能技术助力其社交网络提升运营效率、优化广告投放质量，为公司带来了切实收益，但在企业外部市场，该公司的人工智能产品始终未能打开局面、获得广泛认可。在收购Scale AI公司并吸纳一批来自OpenAI的技术人才后，Meta计划在未来数月内推出两款新的人工智能产品——大型语言模型Avocado以及人工智能图像生成模型Mango。然而，据Similarweb数据显示，在生成式人工智能流量竞争中，Meta已大幅落后于谷歌Gemini和OpenAI的ChatGPT；即便是Grok、Perplexity以及Anthropic公司的Claude等新兴初创产品，其商业化进展也都优于Meta。数周前有传言称，Meta计划对其Reality Labs部门裁员30%。长期以来，该部门为推进元宇宙概念落地以及AR、VR眼镜研发，每年消耗的资金超过170亿美元。根据Meta2025年第三季度财报数据，Reality Labs部门累计亏损已超730亿美元；若不采取任何成本削减措施，到2026年底，该部门亏损总额将逼近950亿美元。考虑到该部门营收规模有限，削减30%的开支将直接转化为公司净利润的增长。此次裁员预计可为Reality Labs部门缩减50亿美元年度开支，将该部门的年亏损额降至120亿美元。与此同时，Meta通过Ray-Ban和Oakley两大品牌销售的智能眼镜需求正持续激增。Ray-Ban智能眼镜售价为799美元，据悉销量已达1.5万部。公司已推动EssilorLuxottica将一款售价300美元的智能眼镜产能提升至2026年1000万部，但目前尚不清楚这款售价近800美元的高端型号的产能规划。由于美国本土市场需求旺盛，Meta已推迟智能眼镜的全球发售计划。这一策略调整有望为Reality Labs部门带来巨额营收，进一步缓解该部门的现金消耗压力。从长远来看，若能彻底消除Reality Labs部门的亏损，预计将为公司每股收益增厚5.50美元。节省下来的资金将被投入到人工智能业务中——该领域已为公司带来了更直接的收益回报。目前，基于人工智能技术的广告工具已为Meta贡献了600亿美元的广告收入。下图展示了Meta包含资本支出在内的总费用与折旧费用的对比情况。尽管过去几年总费用呈上升趋势，但从这一维度来看，这家社交媒体巨头的支出规模并未出现失控式增长。即将在1月底发布的2025年第四季度财报中，2026年资本支出计划将成为市场关注的核心。在2025年第三季度的财报电话会议上，首席财务官明确表示，2026年资本支出的同比增长幅度将显著高于2025年，并作出如下表述：> “基于当前情况，我们预计2026年资本支出的同比增长金额将显著超过2025年。同时，2026年总费用的同比增速也将大幅高于2025年，增长动力主要来自基础设施成本，其中包括新增的云服务开支以及折旧费用。”根据公司给出的资本支出指引，以2025年710亿美元的资本支出中位数为基准，2026年资本支出同比增幅将超过300亿美元。这意味着，2026年公司资本支出规模至少将达到1000亿美元，结合表述中的措辞推测，实际支出可能落在1050亿至1100亿美元区间。与此同时，Meta提及云服务开支上涨将推高基础设施成本。值得注意的是，公司与多家云服务供应商达成的大额合作协议，相关支出并未计入资本支出范畴。盈利能力依旧强劲即便资本支出规模大幅增长，Meta的盈利消化能力依然不容小觑。市场预测，公司2026年营收将达到2350亿美元；若保持16%的营收增速，2027年营收有望攀升至2720亿美元。未来两年，公司预计新增营收720亿美元，足以覆盖新增的资本支出。但需要警惕的是，若资本支出增速持续高于营收增速，即便公司保持40%左右的营业利润率，自由现金流也将面临枯竭风险。尽管公司在多个领域投入不菲，但市场预测其2026年每股收益仍将达到30.42美元。如前文所述，Reality Labs部门的亏损拖累每股收益约5.50美元，若该部分亏损得以消除，公司每股收益有望提升至约36美元。当前股价对应2026年预期每股收益的市盈率仅为21.5倍，对应调整后每股收益的市盈率更是低至18倍。在640美元左右的价位，Meta的投资吸引力凸显——公司只需通过削减成本（包括放缓部分人工智能业务的激进投入），就能撬动每股收益的提升。未来，Meta存在两种发展路径：要么在人工智能领域突破技术壁垒，成为行业领导者；要么及时调整策略，减少内部资本支出，转而采用外部成熟的生成式人工智能模型。正如在Reality Labs部门的转型——公司成功打造出智能眼镜这一爆款产品，未来完全可以通过削减非核心业务成本，聚焦优势赛道。公司面临的最大风险在于，若在人工智能基础设施上投入巨资，却未能转化为可持续的收益回报，将对业绩造成严重冲击。一旦人工智能投入无法有效提振营收，成本高企而收入增长乏力的局面，可能导致分析师普遍上调的每股收益预期面临下修风险。总结综合来看，Meta是当前极具吸引力的大型科技股标的之一。尽管公司尚未将巨额的人工智能投入转化为顶尖的产品竞争力，但当前股价已具备极高的估值性价比，且人工智能业务存在业绩反转的潜力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603839526","isCrawlerRequest":true}