历史性反超？2026年或成中国科技股关键一年，增长天平正在倾斜

AI前沿观察家01-14

首次超越！2026年，中国科技巨头将跑赢美股“七巨头”？市场正在重新定价，资金流向悄然改变，一场关于科技增长的故事正迎来激动人心的新篇章。2026年伊始，全球资本市场迎来一则震动行业的重磅预测。彭博行业研究发布报告指出，中国科技巨头指数的盈利增长有望在2026年迎来重大拐点，预计将自2022年以来首次超越“美股七巨头”。这是一个强烈的信号，预示着增长势头与资本信心的天平，正在发生微妙的倾斜。01 ...

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tilting","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"83690":0.9,"CQQQ":1.91,"03690":0.9,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"METmain":0.6,"09888":0.9,"09618":0.9,"TTTN":1.87,"09988":0.9},"content_text":"首次超越！2026年，中国科技巨头将跑赢美股“七巨头”？市场正在重新定价，资金流向悄然改变，一场关于科技增长的故事正迎来激动人心的新篇章。2026年伊始，全球资本市场迎来一则震动行业的重磅预测。彭博行业研究发布报告指出，中国科技巨头指数的盈利增长有望在2026年迎来重大拐点，预计将自2022年以来首次超越“美股七巨头”。这是一个强烈的信号，预示着增长势头与资本信心的天平，正在发生微妙的倾斜。01 重磅预测彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）所指的中国科技巨头指数，追踪的是在美上市的景顺中国科技ETF（CQQQ）的表现，其成分股不仅包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度、美团、京东、拼多多等互联网巨头，也涵盖了半导体、人工智能、新能源等领域的顶尖公司。报告的核心结论是：2026年将成为中国科技企业盈利增长的转折之年，其增速有望超过由谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉组成的“美股七巨头”。市场对这一乐观前景给予了即时回应。2026年开年，亚洲科技股迎来“开门红”，一个主要的亚洲科技指数年内已上涨约6%，跑赢了纳斯达克100指数约2%的涨幅。02 动能转换这一历史性预测的背后，是多重动能的汇聚。最核心的驱动力是人工智能从概念到商业化的全面深入。无论是腾讯、阿里巴巴等巨头将AI深度整合进广告、云计算和电商业务，还是以DeepSeek为代表的开源模型在国际上引发震动，都展现了中国科技公司强大的工程化落地能力。AI正在切实地转化为这些公司的收入与利润增长点。与此同时，中国科技公司的估值优势和出海加速构成了双重吸引力。目前中国科技巨头的估值普遍低于美国同行，这为未来的增长留下了更具想象力的空间。高盛、花旗等顶级投行也持积极态度，认为AI相关需求激增和合理估值将推动股价进一步上涨。在业务层面，腾讯的游戏、阿里的云计算与电商、以及中国公司的短视频等内容产品，正凭借强大的本地化能力和创新模式，在海外市场快速提升份额。03 现实挑战尽管前景乐观，但通往超越之路绝非坦途。中国科技巨头面临着不容忽视的挑战。外部竞争压力巨大。“美股七巨头”本身实力极其雄厚，尤其是在前沿AI技术方面，美国在智能体、多模态等领域的领先优势依然明显。内部监管与竞争环境同样复杂。平台经济反垄断政策持续深化，国内市场竞争激烈。此外，在半导体、AI底层架构等关键领域，与国际最先进水平仍存在代差。04 市场信号无论如何，彭博的这一预测本身，就是一个强烈的市场信号。它表明全球资本正在用真金白银，重新评估中国科技资产的增长潜力和投资价值。投资者正将资金从经历多年大幅上涨的美股科技股，轮动至处于全球半导体供应链核心、且估值更具吸引力的亚洲市场。这一拐点如果实现，其意义将远超单纯的数字比较。它象征着中国科技产业经过持续的投入、调整与创新，其内生增长动力和全球竞争力得到了资本市场的一次关键性确认。结语中国科技巨头与美股“七巨头”的这场盈利赛跑，在2026年变得格外引人注目。彭博的预测为我们描绘了一个激动人心的可能性。无论最终结果如何，这都标志着全球科技竞争格局进入了更复杂、也更精彩的新阶段。对于投资者和观察者而言，这不仅仅是一个关于数字的故事，更是一个关于创新韧性、商业落地能力与未来话语权的深层叙事。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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