开源证券：AI+的高beta现阶段依然有望获得支撑本轮行情为科技+周期双主线

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智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，AI+的高beta现阶段依然有望获得支撑。但该行认为从整体投资角度可以更合理的做好均衡：(1)AI硬件需跟踪性能提升的变化，且可以适当关注机构仓位较低的AI应用相关板块机会，以及科技内部高低切;(2)十五五规划首年可以更加重视新的主题向主线过渡的机会比如商业航天、脑机接口等;(3)本轮行情是科技+周期的双主线，提价线索叠加反内卷的加持下周期风格同样也大有可为...

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This round of market is the dual main line of technology + cycle","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BETA":0.9,"02899":0.9,"03750":0.9,"01787":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，AI+的高beta现阶段依然有望获得支撑。但该行认为从整体投资角度可以更合理的做好均衡：(1)AI硬件需跟踪性能提升的变化，且可以适当关注机构仓位较低的AI应用相关板块机会，以及科技内部高低切;(2)十五五规划首年可以更加重视新的主题向主线过渡的机会比如商业航天、脑机接口等;(3)本轮行情是科技+周期的双主线，提价线索叠加反内卷的加持下周期风格同样也大有可为。行业配置建议：(1)科技内部的修复和高低切：军工、传媒(游戏)、AI应用、港股互联网、电池、核心AI硬件;(2)PPI改善加广谱反内卷受益：光伏、化工、钢铁、有色、电力、机械;(3)中长期底仓：黄金、优化的高股息。开源证券主要观点如下：硬件大周期视角—强者恒强和强弩之末的讨论泡沫的呈现往往取决于“容器大小”，有一个很有意思的比喻是“往杯子里倒酒”与“往杠里倒酒”泡沫的情况是不一样的，在中美流动性宽松+A股估值牛市+政策大力支持发展科技(产业高景气)的基础上(往缸里到酒)，该行认为言AI泡沫仍尚早，只是仓位和累计涨幅的压力随时可能需要一定的消化。强者恒强的核心因素仍在于ΔG，如果ΔG开始出现明显的疲软则可能处于平顶消化估值+成长回归价值的过程。当前并未见到ΔG的显著拐点，那么AI硬件在现阶段更有可能跟随估值牛的大环境延续。2000年美股科网泡沫启示录-“6+6”模式复现全过程在泡沫形成阶段，大部分科技企业均经历了估值快速上升，但估值涨幅与盈利能力之间出现显著脱节，更多的是盲目的预期和情绪在起作用。多数企业在实际盈利尚未充分显现时就被赋予了过高的增长假设。这一现象揭示了泡沫阶段的核心特征：在高成长科技行业中，资本往往优先追逐“技术故事”和“规模幻想”，而非基于实际利润和现金流的价值判断。该行通过“6+6”的模式(即六家代表性个股的六大维度)再现了泡沫到幻灭的过程，从中发现泡沫破裂并非对创新的否定，而是对企业基本面与商业模式的严格检验——真正能够经受市场考验的企业，通常具备技术领先、盈利路径清晰和资本管理稳健三大特质。2013-2015年A股移动互联网时代的行情终结的启示本质依然是估值与盈利能力的背离，不过其弱PPI+强产业叙事+强流动性的市场环境仍可为当下有所借鉴。弱宏观周期下景气品类相对稀缺，这或使得投资者对于景气方向的交易过于集中，叠加杠杆资金的加速从而使得估值不再具备安全边际。此外从行情结束后出现退市风险的公司对比中该行也可以看出行业竞争格局以及商业模式的可持续性同样是重要的考量点。风险提示：宏观政策超预期变动放大市场波动。全球流动性及地缘政治恶化风险。测算的定价模型基于历史数据，不能代表未来。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603813576","isCrawlerRequest":true}

开源证券：AI+的高beta现阶段依然有望获得支撑 本轮行情为科技+周期双主线

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开源证券：AI+的高beta现阶段依然有望获得支撑本轮行情为科技+周期双主线